Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:
Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. *We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)

"Simon S" wrote in message
...
On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:
Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)
==================

Latest sat pics indicate west-east elongation well underway with T-bone cold
front weakening.
Even patch of drier air behind cold front now as cold air conveyor descends
behind the deepening centre. Seclusion process well underway with
cirrostratus now invading the sky rapidly here in Devon.
The low may well end up more elongated than expected earlier but main centre
with strongest winds still looks in line for passing somewhere near Channel
Islands and then quickly NE to Dover Straits. Heavy rain might end up
further north and west. Cold air tuck behind it will turn the precip. wintry
on its western edge with a spell of wet snow possible over high ground.

Will
--

On Feb 27, 1:58*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Simon S" wrote in message

...
On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:

Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)
==================

Latest sat pics indicate west-east elongation well underway with T-bone cold
front weakening.
Even patch of drier air behind cold front now as cold air conveyor descends
behind the deepening centre. Seclusion process well underway with
cirrostratus now invading the sky rapidly here in Devon.
The low may well end up more elongated than expected earlier but main centre
with strongest winds still looks in line for passing somewhere near Channel
Islands and then quickly NE to Dover Straits. Heavy rain might end up
further north and west. Cold air tuck behind it will turn the precip. wintry
on its western edge with a spell of wet snow possible over high ground.

Will
--

Fascinating. Keep up the commentary Will, I'm sure a lot, like me, are
learning from it.

Driving rain and E to NE gales will prove a test for my recent
paintwork and rendering- which I think will be OK, but I'm not sure
how my occasionally leaky roof will cope. Fingers crossed!

On 27 Feb, 13:58, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Simon S" wrote in message

...
On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:

Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)
==================

Latest sat pics indicate west-east elongation well underway with T-bone cold
front weakening.
Even patch of drier air behind cold front now as cold air conveyor descends
behind the deepening centre. Seclusion process well underway with
cirrostratus now invading the sky rapidly here in Devon.
The low may well end up more elongated than expected earlier but main centre
with strongest winds still looks in line for passing somewhere near Channel
Islands and then quickly NE to Dover Straits. Heavy rain might end up
further north and west. Cold air tuck behind it will turn the precip. wintry
on its western edge with a spell of wet snow possible over high ground.

Will
--

Cirrostratus has thinned again here. Now virtually calm in pleasant
sunshine, the thin veil of cirrostratus having helped to damp down any
Cu development. http://www.minack.com/min02_7ref30.htm

Currently around 10C, but feeling warmer due to the lack of wind.
Dewpoint 7C

Certainly doesn't look good for the Channel Isles around the time of
tomorrow mornings high tide. Forecast mean speeds for the north
Cornwall coast tomorrow morning have been downgraded slightly I'm
pleased to say - still a Force 7 peaking at high tide though. South
coast (of Cornwall) will be offshore - so no problems here in Mount's
Bay.

Force 6 ESE onshore forecast for Penzance Tuesday, on the biggest tide
of the year, but fortunately the pressure will be a good deal higher
then, and certainly no big swell.

Graham
Penzance

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 27, 1:58 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Simon S" wrote in message

...
On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:

Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)
==================

Latest sat pics indicate west-east elongation well underway with T-bone
cold
front weakening.
Even patch of drier air behind cold front now as cold air conveyor
descends
behind the deepening centre. Seclusion process well underway with
cirrostratus now invading the sky rapidly here in Devon.
The low may well end up more elongated than expected earlier but main
centre
with strongest winds still looks in line for passing somewhere near
Channel
Islands and then quickly NE to Dover Straits. Heavy rain might end up
further north and west. Cold air tuck behind it will turn the precip.
wintry
on its western edge with a spell of wet snow possible over high ground.

Will
--

Fascinating. Keep up the commentary Will, I'm sure a lot, like me, are
learning from it.

Driving rain and E to NE gales will prove a test for my recent
paintwork and rendering- which I think will be OK, but I'm not sure
how my occasionally leaky roof will cope. Fingers crossed!
===============

1600 imagery shows a very elongated system now. In my experience KS cyclones
sometimes slow down at this stage. Centre is in Biscay ATM with a curl of
strong winds about to slam into Brittany. The T of the T-bone is way ahead
east almost into Normandy now. It looks on track as far as I can tell but I
still fancy the rain to be extending further west and possibly quicker into
the SE due to the elongation. My only concern is that the SW side of the low
seems to be slowing which may be a sign that the gradient is tightening
more, hurricane force? We should be safe in Britain but northern France is
right in the firing line for some massive gusts.

Will
--

On 27 Feb, 17:42, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 27, 1:58 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Simon S" wrote in message

...
On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:

Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)
==================

Latest sat pics indicate west-east elongation well underway with T-bone
cold
front weakening.
Even patch of drier air behind cold front now as cold air conveyor
descends
behind the deepening centre. Seclusion process well underway with
cirrostratus now invading the sky rapidly here in Devon.
The low may well end up more elongated than expected earlier but main
centre
with strongest winds still looks in line for passing somewhere near
Channel
Islands and then quickly NE to Dover Straits. Heavy rain might end up
further north and west. Cold air tuck behind it will turn the precip.
wintry
on its western edge with a spell of wet snow possible over high ground.

Will
--

Fascinating. Keep up the commentary Will, I'm sure a lot, like me, are
learning from it.

Driving rain and E to NE gales will prove a test for my recent
paintwork and rendering- which I think will be OK, but I'm not sure
how my occasionally leaky roof will cope. Fingers crossed!
===============

1600 imagery shows a very elongated system now. In my experience KS cyclones
sometimes slow down at this stage. Centre is in Biscay ATM with a curl of
strong winds about to slam into Brittany. The T of the T-bone is way ahead
east almost into Normandy now. It looks on track as far as I can tell but I
still fancy the rain to be extending further west and possibly quicker into
the SE due to the elongation. My only concern is that the SW side of the low
seems to be slowing which may be a sign that the gradient is tightening
more, hurricane force? We should be safe in Britain but northern France is
right in the firing line for some massive gusts.

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Alerts in France now upgraded to
Vigilance Rouge in several western departments - looks like this one
will be on a par with the January storm of last year (storm 'Klaus').


CK

In article
,
Simon S writes:
On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:
Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. *We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)

Not sure about that, but the 12Z GFS seems to be moving the Low through
quicker than on previous runs. It's now forecast at 06Z tomorrow to be
at roughly where it was previously expected to be at 12Z, and at 12Z
it's at about where it was previously expected to be at 18Z.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Feb 27, 1:51*pm, Simon S wrote:
On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:

Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. *We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)

The gfs has changed the track over the previous week, certainly. On
Wednesday, when Richard opened this thread:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...b454a2f5d8d5e#

the track then was, if anything, a little further to the NW and as a
result, Will was including Wales in a snow firing line. 24 hours
later, a couple of us mentioned that the low was showing signs of
assuming a track more to the SE of that original projection,
especially on the gfs, with the major fallout being over N. France.
That probably will still be true, but now, 2 days after that, the
track is being modelled a little further to the NE again. So you are
right Simon, if you choose Thursday's output as a datum; if you choose
Wednesday's path as a starting point, it is actually a little to the
SE of what was being modelled then.

I think the models, so far, have done very well with this, but a final
judgement on this could only be made after tomorrow. We should just
about stay dry in Exeter this evening, but I'm expecting to be
awakened by rain and winds in the night. (I'm also rather hoping
Giraffe will be free from a terrorist assembling a bomb in the gents!)