On Mar 20, 5:19*pm, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...



What you are doing is trying to push a cold agenda and now
you are trying to say that H2O and not CO2 is the reason why Climate
is changing.

I have no agenda, I wonder why you infinitely persist in saying otherwise..
Look elsewhere for a warming denialist.

By the sheer nature of physics and chemistry, positive feedback is already
underway. Indeed it's always happening. What temperature would the surface
of the earth be if there was no H20 in the atmosphere? Warmer or colder? I
wonder if you know the answer to that simple question?

The atmosphere is now warmer than at any stage of the previous 100 years so
can therefor retain more water vapour. This is a powerful force, initially
affecting weather and in turn the climate. If global warming is uniform,
then so equally is positive feedback.

But, alas, and this may come as somewhat of a surprise to you, there's a
tipping point, so special is that little H20 molecule without which
bioligcal life would be devoid on this blue oasis in space. Enter the realms
of negative feedback, or indeed, not so much a blue oasis in space, more of
a white one. One whether through cloud or ice cover reflects solar energy
back into space. A drastically cooler planet awaits eventually, again and
again and again. Until such times as the sun begins to expand and all life
ceases on our planet permanantly.

If Carbon Dioxide increases on the planet (or anyother greenhouse gas) to
the extent that it's effect counter balances negative feedback, then the
future populations of the planet have a problem. A classic runaway
greenhouse effect. This line has not been crossed, which is why we have
global warming conferences, because there is time to halt such a scenario..
What level of CO2 in the atmosphere constitutes the dividing line? It's a
long way off yet. In the meantime the climate changes and this affects most
species of life on the planet, not just humans. And the warmer it gets, the
more water goes up into the atmosphere and the more falls on Dawlish. Or
does it? Strangely the hadley predictions don't seem to think so. I'm sure I
read that precipitation in London is forecast by them to increase 0.1% by
the year 2050. Why would this be in an atmosphere that is forecast to hold
more water vapour? A change to a less maratime and more continental climate
perhaps? More snow for Lawrence in winter and more heat for the snow haters
in Summer?

Anyway, I'm sidetracking... I have no agenda, if you can't accept that then
that's your problem I'm afraid.

A quick glance at average northern hemisphere land temperatures for the past
winter shows that it was on the cooler side of average (just) of the last
thirty winters. So, contrary to what you said, it may indeed have been a
record warm winter in some parts of the northern hemisphere (land), but it
was more than balanced by those who experience a colder than average winter
when compared to the thirty year mean.
It was certainly not remarkable though in terms of cold hemispherically....
The winter of 2000/01 and moreso the winter of 1993/94 were distinctly
colder. What was remarkable was the extended displacement of typical weather
patterns.
To ask, or to ponder whether that was in any part due to global warming,
changing levels of water vapour, shifting oceanic currents or merely just a
chance freak of nature is not unreasonable, nor does it amount to jumping on
a global cooling bandwagon.
And note that I ask these questions, I do not say they are statements of
fact.

Lex

;-)

I argee with much of what you say Lex and of course, negative
feedbacks could have begun to occur already - however the last little
bit about the northern hemisphere warmer areas being balanced by the
colder areas (which would produce an average Northern Hemisphere
winter temperature) would take some proving against even a 30-year
mean! I'd like to see your figures on that one.

Good to see you have no agenda. See how your future posts on the
subject stack up in that respect!

"Dawlish" wrote in message

I argee with much of what you say Lex and of course, negative
feedbacks could have begun to occur already - however the last little
bit about the northern hemisphere warmer areas being balanced by the
colder areas (which would produce an average Northern Hemisphere
winter temperature) would take some proving against even a 30-year
mean! I'd like to see your figures on that one.

Good to see you have no agenda. See how your future posts on the
subject stack up in that respect!



Just a quick reply, I stated that northern hempisphere LAND temperatures
this past winter were lower than the average of the last 30 years. Not
including oceanic temperatures of course. I took the figures from the ncdc
website, which seems a fairly reliable source.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ano...1-2000mean.dat

The figure given for each winter is the deviation from the whole dataset
average I believe (winter being the December of the previous year, averaged
with the January and February of the stated year). Or perhaps it's the
deviation from that dastardly 1951-1980 mean that keeps cropping up. Either
way, it shows that the past winter was marginally cooler than the most
recent 30 year mean. The Winter's of 2001 and 1993 stand out as being colder
during the last 10, and the winter of 1985 clearly the coldest of them all.
Note that the last three values show a plateau, two or more subsequent
values may indicate a trend of warming suspension (as far as NH land
winters are concerned). But we have to wait two years to see if that will be
the case.

1980.0 0.8
1981.0 0.8
1982.0 0.2
1983.0 0.7
1984.0 0.1
1985.0 -0.6
1986.0 0.4
1987.0 0.5
1988.0 0.5
1989.0 0.5
1990.0 0.6
1991.0 0.7
1992.0 0.9
1993.0 0.7
1994.0 0.0
1995.0 1.1
1996.0 0.4
1997.0 0.8
1998.0 0.8
1999.0 1.3
2000.0 1.4
2001.0 0.3
2002.0 1.4
2003.0 0.7
2004.0 1.3
2005.0 0.6
2006.0 0.8
2007.0 1.4
2008.0 0.6
2009.0 0.9
2010.0 0.6
average 0.7

;-)

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message

I argee with much of what you say Lex and of course, negative
feedbacks could have begun to occur already - however the last little
bit about the northern hemisphere warmer areas being balanced by the
colder areas (which would produce an average Northern Hemisphere
winter temperature) would take some proving against even a 30-year
mean! I'd like to see your figures on that one.

Good to see you have no agenda. See how your future posts on the
subject stack up in that respect!



Just a quick reply, I stated that northern hempisphere LAND temperatures
this past winter were lower than the average of the last 30 years. Not
including oceanic temperatures of course. I took the figures from the ncdc
website, which seems a fairly reliable source.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ano...1-2000mean.dat

The figure given for each winter is the deviation from the whole dataset
average I believe (winter being the December of the previous year,
averaged with the January and February of the stated year). Or perhaps
it's the deviation from that dastardly 1951-1980 mean that keeps cropping
up. Either way, it shows that the past winter was marginally cooler than
the most recent 30 year mean. The Winter's of 2001 and 1993 stand out as
being colder during the last 10, and the winter of 1985 clearly the
coldest of them all.
Note that the last three values show a plateau, two or more subsequent
values may indicate a trend of warming suspension (as far as NH land
winters are concerned). But we have to wait two years to see if that will
be the case.

1980.0 0.8
1981.0 0.8
1982.0 0.2
1983.0 0.7
1984.0 0.1
1985.0 -0.6
1986.0 0.4
1987.0 0.5
1988.0 0.5
1989.0 0.5
1990.0 0.6
1991.0 0.7
1992.0 0.9
1993.0 0.7
1994.0 0.0
1995.0 1.1
1996.0 0.4
1997.0 0.8
1998.0 0.8
1999.0 1.3
2000.0 1.4
2001.0 0.3
2002.0 1.4
2003.0 0.7
2004.0 1.3
2005.0 0.6
2006.0 0.8
2007.0 1.4
2008.0 0.6
2009.0 0.9
2010.0 0.6
average 0.7

;-)

I should also add, that if the NH winter land values for 2011 and 2012 do
form a suspended trend (compounding seven of the last eight winters) whilst
the corresponding ocean temperatures continue warming - it would be
significant evidence of negative feedback.
Complex theoreticity :-)

On 20/03/10 09:41, Will Hand wrote:
Speaking purely as a mathematician (which is my degree qualification),
if a trend reverses, then it will take time for subsequent events to
return to a long term value. So I am not surprised that the NH winter
was 13th warmest, but perhaps if the GW temperature trend had still been
on the up at the same rate is was a few years back then perhaps it
should have been the fourth or such. OTOH if GW had not happened then
last winter might have been the 100th. Only time will tell, but I think
what Alex is alluding to is that last winter probably came as a shock to
climate scientists!

I still think too much has been made of the recent levelling-off of
global temperatures. Looking at an 11-yr running mean, it is no more
noticeable - at least so far - than any of the pauses that have been
happening every 7-8 years since 1970, in fact rather less so than a
couple of them. This is also true when looking at 5-yr means.

The last 12-month period was the warmest on record for the March to
February period at +0.61C, beating the previous highest of 2005-6 by
just 0.01C with 2006-7 in third place at +0.58C.

When looking at any 12-month period, the highest was that ending in
December 2005 at +0.63C, followed by those ending in July and August
2007 at +0.62C.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On Mar 20, 8:37*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 20/03/10 09:41, Will Hand wrote:

Speaking purely as a mathematician (which is my degree qualification),
if a trend reverses, then it will take time for subsequent events to
return to a long term value. So I am not surprised that the NH winter
was 13th warmest, but perhaps if the GW temperature trend had still been
on the up at the same rate is was a few years back then perhaps it
should have been the fourth or such. OTOH if GW had not happened then
last winter might have been the 100th. Only time will tell, but I think
what Alex is alluding to is that last winter probably came as a shock to
climate scientists!

I still think too much has been made of the recent levelling-off of
global temperatures. Looking at an 11-yr running mean, it is no more
noticeable - at least so far - than any of the pauses that have been
happening every 7-8 years since 1970, in fact rather less so than a
couple of them. This is also true when looking at 5-yr means.

The last 12-month period was the warmest on record for the March to
February period at +0.61C, beating the previous highest of 2005-6 by
just 0.01C with 2006-7 in third place at +0.58C.

When looking at any 12-month period, the highest was that ending in
December 2005 at +0.63C, followed by those ending in July and August
2007 at +0.62C.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

Keep your eye on the 12-month period starting in either May, or June,
2009 Graham. If Global temperatures stay high - and slow global
temperature decay from this El Nino is highly likely to keep those
temperatures high, one of those two periods is likely to be a record,
global, 12-month temperature high.

On Mar 20, 7:19*pm, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

I argee with much of what you say Lex and of course, negative
feedbacks could have begun to occur already - however the last little
bit about the northern hemisphere warmer areas being balanced by the
colder areas (which would produce an average Northern Hemisphere
winter temperature) would take some proving against even a 30-year
mean! I'd like to see your figures on that one.

Good to see you have no agenda. See how your future posts on the
subject stack up in that respect!



Just a quick reply, I stated that northern hempisphere LAND temperatures
this past winter were lower than the average of the last 30 years. Not
including oceanic temperatures of course. I took the figures from the ncdc
website, which seems a fairly reliable source.ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ano....00N.90N.df_19...

The figure given for each winter is the deviation from the whole dataset
average I believe (winter being the December of the previous year, averaged
with the January and February of the stated year). Or perhaps it's the
deviation from that dastardly 1951-1980 mean that keeps cropping up. Either
way, it shows that the past winter was marginally cooler than the most
recent 30 year mean. The Winter's of 2001 and 1993 stand out as being colder
during the last 10, and the winter of 1985 clearly the coldest of them all.
*Note that the last three values show a plateau, two or more subsequent
values may indicate a trend of *warming suspension (as far as NH land
winters are concerned). But we have to wait two years to see if that will be
the case.

1980.0 * *0.8
1981.0 * *0.8
1982.0 * *0.2
1983.0 * *0.7
1984.0 * *0.1
1985.0 *-0.6
1986.0 * *0.4
1987.0 * *0.5
1988.0 * *0.5
1989.0 * *0.5
1990.0 * *0.6
1991.0 * *0.7
1992.0 * *0.9
1993.0 * *0.7
1994.0 * *0.0
1995.0 * *1.1
1996.0 * *0.4
1997.0 * *0.8
1998.0 * *0.8
1999.0 * *1.3
2000.0 * *1.4
2001.0 * *0.3
2002.0 * *1.4
2003.0 * *0.7
2004.0 * *1.3
2005.0 * *0.6
2006.0 * *0.8
2007.0 * *1.4
2008.0 * *0.6
2009.0 * *0.9
2010.0 * *0.6
average * 0.7

;-)

Thanks Alex. It looks like we have a 30-year balance! Would you post
the NOAA source again, as I can't get the link to work.