Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 18, 10:43 am, "
wrote:
On 18 Oct, 00:38, "Dave Cornwell"

wrote:
I think it's a case of "if only it were January" down here
Lawrence. I think it will feel uncomfortably cold when the sun
isn't out and we might get a frost or two but nothing more than a
cold Autumnal spell, the like of which is not uncommon at some
point in many Octobers. As for the rest of the winter, being a
non-believer in excessively long range forecasts, I don't think
anyone can be sure at this stage whether it will another chillier
than usual one.
Dave

The GFS that I have just looked at would appear quite mild at the end
of October.

This could be a trial of computer v throbbing swelling on lip.......

Funny you should say that as the my lip started to ease off so then
the models changed their tune.

Who needs all these complex models and mega-computers when all
we have to do is interpret the throbbing-ness (or lack of) of your lip!
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
I think it's a case of "if only it were January" down here Lawrence. I think
it will feel uncomfortably cold when the sun isn't out and we might get a
frost or two but nothing more than a cold Autumnal spell, the like of which
is not uncommon at some point in many Octobers. As for the rest of the
winter, being a non-believer in excessively long range forecasts, I don't
think anyone can be sure at this stage whether it will another chillier than
usual one.
Dave



I think a cold October would tend to make me less optimistic about a
cold winter, if anything. I still remember the cold October of 1974
being followed by an exceptionally mild winter.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

"Col" wrote in message
...
Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 18, 10:43 am, "
wrote:
On 18 Oct, 00:38, "Dave Cornwell"

wrote:
I think it's a case of "if only it were January" down here
Lawrence. I think it will feel uncomfortably cold when the sun
isn't out and we might get a frost or two but nothing more than a
cold Autumnal spell, the like of which is not uncommon at some
point in many Octobers. As for the rest of the winter, being a
non-believer in excessively long range forecasts, I don't think
anyone can be sure at this stage whether it will another chillier
than usual one.
Dave

The GFS that I have just looked at would appear quite mild at the end
of October.

This could be a trial of computer v throbbing swelling on lip.......

Funny you should say that as the my lip started to ease off so then
the models changed their tune.

Who needs all these complex models and mega-computers when all
we have to do is interpret the throbbing-ness (or lack of) of your lip!
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

I know Col it really is spooky, just imagine if Mick Jagger had this weird
gift, why he could forecast accurately several years ahead!


Sadly though like Piers Corbyn, when it comes to a winter forecast my lips
are sealed.

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
I think it's a case of "if only it were January" down here Lawrence. I
think
it will feel uncomfortably cold when the sun isn't out and we might get a
frost or two but nothing more than a cold Autumnal spell, the like of
which
is not uncommon at some point in many Octobers. As for the rest of the
winter, being a non-believer in excessively long range forecasts, I don't
think anyone can be sure at this stage whether it will another chillier
than
usual one.
Dave



I think a cold October would tend to make me less optimistic about a
cold winter, if anything. I still remember the cold October of 1974
being followed by an exceptionally mild winter.
--
Not strictly true John October 62 (gasp) was very similar all the way
through with several northerly outbreaks towards the end. Here's one I
prepared earlier
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119621028.gif

reported to isp and google

On 18/10/2010 4:29 PM, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 1:42 pm, "Lawrence wrote:
Now as you all know I'm no forecaster (gasps everywhere) and I have to rely
on my cold sore that always develops on my top lip right hand side, when a
cold Northerly or Easterly is in the offing and it's throbbing as I type.
So I guess not so much a weather forecast more of a lip service but it's
painfully accurate.

However, I like most here would have noticed that GFS and ECM are
consistently showing a very Northerly second half to October and to my
untrained eye but very sore lip it looks bloody chilly.

Anyone have any comments on this? Will.............?

This was just a guess from someone looking at a couple of model runs
and trying to say they'd seen something that will happen. There was no
consistency and that's why the models are not showing that any more.
There is still no consistency and forecasting at 10 days, from the
models over the past few days would have been no better than
guesswork. As evidenced by someone's sore lip.

In article m,
Lawrence Jenkins writes:

"John Hall" wrote in message
.. .
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
I think it's a case of "if only it were January" down here Lawrence. I
think
it will feel uncomfortably cold when the sun isn't out and we might get a
frost or two but nothing more than a cold Autumnal spell, the like of
which
is not uncommon at some point in many Octobers. As for the rest of the
winter, being a non-believer in excessively long range forecasts, I don't
think anyone can be sure at this stage whether it will another chillier
than
usual one.
Dave



I think a cold October would tend to make me less optimistic about a
cold winter, if anything. I still remember the cold October of 1974
being followed by an exceptionally mild winter.
--
Not strictly true John October 62 (gasp) was very similar all the way
through with several northerly outbreaks towards the end. Here's one I
prepared earlier
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119621028.gif



The month as a whole wasn't cold, though. IIRC, for the first three
weeks or so an anticyclone was anchored somewhere near the UK, giving
very pleasant weather. In "Seasonable Weather", LP Smith describes the
month thus: October... was dry and quiet for much of the month, but at
the end rain and gales..." Incidentally the 7 months up to and including
September had all had below average temperatures. (The 12 months
starting with March 1962 may well have been the coldest yearly period in
the 20th century, though I haven't done the calculations.)
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

In article ,
drew writes:
reported to isp and google

Boogle! Why? The posts that you quoted (which I've retained for context
below) give not even the most tenuous of grounds for doing so.


On 18/10/2010 4:29 PM, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 1:42 pm, "Lawrence wrote:
Now as you all know I'm no forecaster (gasps everywhere) and I have to rely
on my cold sore that always develops on my top lip right hand side, when a
cold Northerly or Easterly is in the offing and it's throbbing as I type.
So I guess not so much a weather forecast more of a lip service but it's
painfully accurate.

However, I like most here would have noticed that GFS and ECM are
consistently showing a very Northerly second half to October and to my
untrained eye but very sore lip it looks bloody chilly.

Anyone have any comments on this? Will.............?

This was just a guess from someone looking at a couple of model runs
and trying to say they'd seen something that will happen. There was no
consistency and that's why the models are not showing that any more.
There is still no consistency and forecasting at 10 days, from the
models over the past few days would have been no better than
guesswork. As evidenced by someone's sore lip.

--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Tue, 19 Oct 2010 10:45:16 +0100, John Hall wrote:

In article ,
drew writes:
reported to isp and google

Boogle! Why? The posts that you quoted (which I've retained for context
below) give not even the most tenuous of grounds for doing so.

I think it's a joke. Dawlish has been threatening to send
anyone who's been naughty to Mr Google's office; this seems
to be an 'ad absurdum' reaction to that.

On Oct 19, 11:22*am, John F wrote:
On Tue, 19 Oct 2010 10:45:16 +0100, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*drew writes:
reported to isp and google

Boogle! Why? The posts that you quoted (which I've retained for context
below) give not even the most tenuous of grounds for doing so.

I think it's a joke. Dawlish has been threatening to send
anyone who's been naughty to Mr Google's office; this seems
to be an 'ad absurdum' reaction to that.

I'll leave it to google, their relationship with other ISPs and the
authorities. I suggest you do.

On Oct 19, 4:16*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 19, 11:22*am, John F wrote:

On Tue, 19 Oct 2010 10:45:16 +0100, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*drew writes:
reported to isp and google

Boogle! Why? The posts that you quoted (which I've retained for context
below) give not even the most tenuous of grounds for doing so.

I think it's a joke. Dawlish has been threatening to send
anyone who's been naughty to Mr Google's office; this seems
to be an 'ad absurdum' reaction to that.

I'll leave it to google, their relationship with other ISPs and the
authorities. I suggest you do.

I didn't mean "you" in particular there John and that sounds awfully
harsh on re-reading. "Others" would convey my meaning better!