The mild and wet weather looks like it may by replaced by something,
still as wet, but cooler, after the end of this week. Both the gfs and
the ECM are going for a mid Atlantic high, feeding a NW airstream
towards the UK. Nothing Arctic showing yet, as there's a shortwave
feature presently showing at T240, cutting off an Arctic feed, but as
that tracks east, there could be some colder weather waiting in the
wings for mid-November.

"all to play for" *))

yawn ****ing yawn


On 30/10/2010 12:20 PM, Dawlish wrote:
The mild and wet weather looks like it may by replaced by something,
still as wet, but cooler, after the end of this week. Both the gfs and
the ECM are going for a mid Atlantic high, feeding a NW airstream
towards the UK. Nothing Arctic showing yet, as there's a shortwave
feature presently showing at T240, cutting off an Arctic feed, but as
that tracks east, there could be some colder weather waiting in the
wings for mid-November.

"all to play for" *))

On Oct 30, 11:20*am, Dawlish wrote:
The mild and wet weather looks like it may by replaced by something,
still as wet, but cooler, after the end of this week. Both the gfs and
the ECM are going for a mid Atlantic high, feeding a NW airstream
towards the UK. Nothing Arctic showing yet, as there's a shortwave
feature presently showing at T240, cutting off an Arctic feed, but as
that tracks east, there could be some colder weather waiting in the
wings for mid-November.

"all to play for" *))

GFS certainly looking to spin up a nasty depression and it sits it
squarely in the North Sea by the 9th. it's got a couple interested!
However the ECM doesn't show the same, so I've less confidence than I
had 2 days ago in that northerly, or the North Sea gales. .

On Nov 1, 9:46*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 30, 11:20*am, Dawlish wrote:

The mild and wet weather looks like it may by replaced by something,
still as wet, but cooler, after the end of this week. Both the gfs and
the ECM are going for a mid Atlantic high, feeding a NW airstream
towards the UK. Nothing Arctic showing yet, as there's a shortwave
feature presently showing at T240, cutting off an Arctic feed, but as
that tracks east, there could be some colder weather waiting in the
wings for mid-November.

"all to play for" *))

GFS certainly looking to spin up a nasty depression and it sits it
squarely in the North Sea by the 9th. it's got a couple interested!
However the ECM doesn't show the same, so I've less confidence than I
had 2 days ago in that northerly, or the North Sea gales. .

Here's some weather jim.

ECM looking more like the gfs in spinning up the low to affect the UK.
Could be some interesting times, over the weekend and into early next
week! The lee northerly could be sharp and could produce a surge in
the North Sea, but it looks like it may be short-lived. Model
agreement says a cyclonic event is now likely to happen. Up to the
professionals at this distance to speculate on the detail.

On Nov 2, 8:32*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 1, 9:46*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 30, 11:20*am, Dawlish wrote:

The mild and wet weather looks like it may by replaced by something,
still as wet, but cooler, after the end of this week. Both the gfs and
the ECM are going for a mid Atlantic high, feeding a NW airstream
towards the UK. Nothing Arctic showing yet, as there's a shortwave
feature presently showing at T240, cutting off an Arctic feed, but as
that tracks east, there could be some colder weather waiting in the
wings for mid-November.

"all to play for" *))

GFS certainly looking to spin up a nasty depression and it sits it
squarely in the North Sea by the 9th. it's got a couple interested!
However the ECM doesn't show the same, so I've less confidence than I
had 2 days ago in that northerly, or the North Sea gales. .

Here's some weather jim.

ECM looking more like the gfs in spinning up the low to affect the UK.
Could be some interesting times, over the weekend and into early next
week! The lee northerly could be sharp and could produce a surge in
the North Sea, but it looks like it may be short-lived. Model
agreement says a cyclonic event is now likely to happen. Up to the
professionals at this distance to speculate on the detail.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Oh well Jim, I'll talk about the weather anyway!

No wonder the professionals are steering away from comment on this
one. Nothing is even a little bit certain, even at 6 days. Both the
gfs and the ECM are now highlighting Mon/Tues next week as the time
for this low to affect the UK. Let's hope that NW/SE gfs track doesn't
shift further east, or North sea coasts could be at risk from a surge.
Stormy early next week. The MetO acknowledge the potential storminess
in the 6-15 day precis, but as usual, the tea boy has added no detail.
It's an interesting scenario for early next week, Like Jim, I'm
surprised there's so little comment.

Another point of interest, in the SW, is the mildness this morning.
I've just been out in one fleece and a woolly hat and regretted
putting them both on, later in the dog walk. The paper delivery man
was in a T-shirt and like the good British lad that he is, commented
on the weather and the warmth! That mildness should spread east behind
this warm front during today. It'll be interesting to see what
temperatures result. 18C max somewhere?

At least it's mild. *))

On Nov 3, 8:16*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 2, 8:32*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 1, 9:46*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Oct 30, 11:20*am, Dawlish wrote:

The mild and wet weather looks like it may by replaced by something,
still as wet, but cooler, after the end of this week. Both the gfs and
the ECM are going for a mid Atlantic high, feeding a NW airstream
towards the UK. Nothing Arctic showing yet, as there's a shortwave
feature presently showing at T240, cutting off an Arctic feed, but as
that tracks east, there could be some colder weather waiting in the
wings for mid-November.

"all to play for" *))

GFS certainly looking to spin up a nasty depression and it sits it
squarely in the North Sea by the 9th. it's got a couple interested!
However the ECM doesn't show the same, so I've less confidence than I
had 2 days ago in that northerly, or the North Sea gales. .

Here's some weather jim.

ECM looking more like the gfs in spinning up the low to affect the UK.
Could be some interesting times, over the weekend and into early next
week! The lee northerly could be sharp and could produce a surge in
the North Sea, but it looks like it may be short-lived. Model
agreement says a cyclonic event is now likely to happen. Up to the
professionals at this distance to speculate on the detail.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Oh well Jim, I'll talk about the weather anyway!

No wonder the professionals are steering away from comment on this
one. Nothing is even a little bit certain, even at 6 days. Both the
gfs and the ECM are now highlighting Mon/Tues next week as the time
for this low to affect the UK. Let's hope that NW/SE gfs track doesn't
shift further east, or North sea coasts could be at risk from a surge.
Stormy early next week. The MetO acknowledge the potential storminess
in the 6-15 day precis, but as usual, the tea boy has added no detail.
It's an interesting scenario for early next week, Like Jim, I'm
surprised there's so little comment.

Another point of interest, in the SW, is the mildness this morning.
I've just been out in one fleece and a woolly hat and regretted
putting them both on, later in the dog walk. The paper delivery man
was in a T-shirt and like the good British lad that he is, commented
on the weather and the warmth! That mildness should spread east behind
this warm front during today. It'll be interesting to see what
temperatures result. 18C max somewhere?

At least it's mild. *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

18C beaten quite widely. Awaiting the final figures. It was a very
warm November day just across the Tamar in Torpoint today.