Just picked up on a post by Stormchaser on TWO
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...242&#post76242
that the winter of 1962/3 coincided with a weak La Nina event, which
was news to me.

Here's a link to back it up. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

On Nov 18, 3:40*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
Just picked up on a post by Stormchaser on TWOhttp://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=...
that the winter of 1962/3 coincided with a weak La Nina event, which
was news to me.

Here's a link to back it up.http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

errrr thanks for the fact, but; so what?

On Nov 18, 4:21*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 18, 3:40*pm, Teignmouth wrote:

Just picked up on a post by Stormchaser on TWOhttp://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=...
that the winter of 1962/3 coincided with a weak La Nina event, which
was news to me.

Here's a link to back it up.http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

errrr thanks for the fact, but; so what?

Allegedly we don’t get cold winters in the UK during La Nina events!

On Nov 18, 4:32*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
On Nov 18, 4:21*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 18, 3:40*pm, Teignmouth wrote:

Just picked up on a post by Stormchaser on TWOhttp://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=...
that the winter of 1962/3 coincided with a weak La Nina event, which
was news to me.

Here's a link to back it up.http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

errrr thanks for the fact, but; so what?

Allegedly we don’t get cold winters in the UK during La Nina events!

During *strong* La Niñas. But the connection is not concrete anyway.
About 70 per cent of strong La Niñas have given average or above-
average winter temperatures, if memory serves

Stephen..

So how is La Nina at the moment?

Jack

On Nov 18, 5:11*pm, "Jack )"
wrote:
So how is La Nina at the moment?

Jack

Many thanks Steve.

Jack, the last 3 months Aug/Sep/Oct is currently running at -1.3, a
moderate La Nina event, but it could always weaken over the coming
winter http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

On Nov 18, 5:18*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
On Nov 18, 5:11*pm, "Jack )"

wrote:
So how is La Nina at the moment?

Jack

Many thanks Steve.

Jack, the last 3 months Aug/Sep/Oct is currently running at -1.3, a
moderate La Nina event, but it could always weaken over the coming
winterhttp://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Some models have it bottoming out about now while others strengthen it
a little further through to early 2011 (e.g. NASA and Scripps) before
starting weaken before the end of winter, and it's already "moderate
to strong".

Here's a report from from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

"Moderate to strong La Niña conditions remain in place across the
tropical Pacific. Long-range models surveyed by the Bureau suggest
that this La Niña event will persist into at least early 2011.

All ENSO indicators continue to exceed La Niña thresholds. The
tropical Pacific Ocean remains significantly cooler than average for
this time of year, with NINO indices recording their lowest October
values since the La Niña event of 1988. Below the Pacific Ocean
surface, temperatures are up to 4°C cooler than normal. The SOI
remains very high, equalling its record October monthly value of +18.
Trade winds remain stronger than average across the central and
western equatorial Pacific and cloudiness near the date-line continues
to be suppressed."

Here's a suite of forecasts:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...SST_table.html

And here are three analogues:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...o/figure2.html


Stephen.

On Nov 18, 4:32*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
On Nov 18, 4:21*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 18, 3:40*pm, Teignmouth wrote:

Just picked up on a post by Stormchaser on TWOhttp://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=...
that the winter of 1962/3 coincided with a weak La Nina event, which
was news to me.

Here's a link to back it up.http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

errrr thanks for the fact, but; so what?

Allegedly we don’t get cold winters in the UK during La Nina events!

Allegedly?? From who? Who's said it is impossible to get cold winters
in La Nina events, T?

On 18/11/10 16:56, Stephen Davenport wrote:

About 70 per cent of strong La Niñas have given average or above-
average winter temperatures, if memory serves

Stephen..

If you are defining your below-average, average and above-average
temperatures by tercile boundaries than by definition, around two thirds
of winters historically would have average or above-average
temperatures, so I'm not convinced this means anything really.