On Dec 17, 12:44*pm, "
wrote:
On Dec 17, 10:41*am, John Hall wrote:



In article
,

*Nick writes:
Doesn't seem to agree with what Will and others are saying here, but
the latest Met Office forecast doesn't seem to suggest much snow for
London and SE England, at least over the weekend. Tomorrow's is
forecast to be "a mixture of rain, sleet and snow" and Sunday's event
doesn't seem to be happening at all.

So is there still a chance of something significant in lowland
southern England? Seems from this forecast like Saturday is now going
to be warmer than anticipated, and the low track on Sunday will miss
here.

Nick

If the models are to be believed, then the chance of anything other than
snow - except perhaps right on the south coast - looks pretty remote.

That is the problem, believing the models. It seems to me that no one
really knows if, when or where a more enhanced area of snow is going
to develop, and which direction it will subsequently move.

One day the model has one over the Irish Sea, moving SE towards Wales
and then Southern England, the next day it does not.

My advice would be to watch (a) the satellite sequences, and (b)
pressure variations to the North and West of Scotland. Then make your
own minds up.

I wouldn't make such a broad statement at the moment, looking at the
energy in those showers/polar lows/troughs coming down from around
Scotland these are not going to fizzle out but more likely be part of
tomorrow developing scenario. Someone will cop it over the weekend and
it maybe more widespread than you think.

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?cou...t=ir&type=loop

Temp here has now riser to -0.6°C @ 19:20, DP -3.8°C.
The cloud layer left over from those Cheshire Gap showers has stopped
most of the sun working on the temperature today.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On Dec 17, 1:21*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Dec 17, 12:44*pm, "



wrote:
On Dec 17, 10:41*am, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Nick writes:
Doesn't seem to agree with what Will and others are saying here, but
the latest Met Office forecast doesn't seem to suggest much snow for
London and SE England, at least over the weekend. Tomorrow's is
forecast to be "a mixture of rain, sleet and snow" and Sunday's event
doesn't seem to be happening at all.

So is there still a chance of something significant in lowland
southern England? Seems from this forecast like Saturday is now going
to be warmer than anticipated, and the low track on Sunday will miss
here.

Nick

If the models are to be believed, then the chance of anything other than
snow - except perhaps right on the south coast - looks pretty remote.

That is the problem, believing the models. It seems to me that no one
really knows if, when or where a more enhanced area of snow is going
to develop, and which direction it will subsequently move.

One day the model has one over the Irish Sea, moving SE towards Wales
and then Southern England, the next day it does not.

My advice would be to watch (a) the satellite sequences, and (b)
pressure variations to the North and West of Scotland. Then make your
own minds up.

I wouldn't make such a broad statement at the moment, looking at the
energy in those showers/polar lows/troughs coming down from around
Scotland these are not going to fizzle out but more likely be part of
tomorrow developing scenario. Someone will cop it over the weekend and
it maybe more widespread than you think.




Really?

And where do you think that energy is coming from?

Yes, sea temperatures.

Do you really think that the models can resolve sea temperatures in
the Irish Sea?


The forecast that "someone will cop it over the weekend" is not the
sort of thing that the media or the public will appreciate, and proves
my point which I will repeat:-

It seems to me that no one really knows if, when or where a more
enhanced area of snow is going
to develop, and which direction it will subsequently move.

If you had bothered to take my advice concerning the satellite and
pressure pattern, I would now suggest that you watch for a circulation
developing somewhere over Scotland, in the satellite infra red cloud
sequences.

This would at least give you an idea of where a small low may be
developing and then you could watch its movement.

On Dec 17, 11:52*am, "Tony Kenyon"
wrote:
"Teignmouth" wrote in message

...
On Dec 17, 10:02 am, Nick wrote:

Doesn't seem to agree with what Will and others are saying here, but
the latest Met Office forecast doesn't seem to suggest much snow for
London and SE England, at least over the weekend. Tomorrow's is
forecast to be "a mixture of rain, sleet and snow" and Sunday's event
doesn't seem to be happening at all.

So is there still a chance of something significant in lowland
southern England? Seems from this forecast like Saturday is now going
to be warmer than anticipated, and the low track on Sunday will miss
here.

Nick

Not wishing to state the obvious, but Will is in upland SW England,
not London, South East England or lowland southern England, his
forecast is for Dartmoor!

He did however use the terms "national emergency" and the "UK " in his post
of 12th Dec. *It is obviously a hugely difficult set of circumstances to
forecast and I have no problem with people getting it wrong. I am, however,
irritated by the fact that the Met Office page still offers two different
solutions for the same area/time if you compare the narrative to the maps!!

Tony

Hmmmm. And the army out in London on Saturday. If it happens; fine. If
it doesn't, it was the usual coldie, overplaying a good model cold
hand.There was and still is a chance of this happening, but the chance
of a "historic" event was low and still is. If it comes off, it will
look like a fantastic forecast. These things always do. If it doesn't
it will be quickly skipped over and forgotten in the headlong hopeful
change towards the next metre of snow that might fall (and probably
won't - this is the UK after all!). Could happen. May happen. Actual
chances........well there's the difficult one and anyone can overplay
a hand.

On Dec 17, 5:39*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 17, 11:52*am, "Tony Kenyon"
wrote:



"Teignmouth" wrote in message

....
On Dec 17, 10:02 am, Nick wrote:

Doesn't seem to agree with what Will and others are saying here, but
the latest Met Office forecast doesn't seem to suggest much snow for
London and SE England, at least over the weekend. Tomorrow's is
forecast to be "a mixture of rain, sleet and snow" and Sunday's event
doesn't seem to be happening at all.

So is there still a chance of something significant in lowland
southern England? Seems from this forecast like Saturday is now going
to be warmer than anticipated, and the low track on Sunday will miss
here.

Nick

Not wishing to state the obvious, but Will is in upland SW England,
not London, South East England or lowland southern England, his
forecast is for Dartmoor!

He did however use the terms "national emergency" and the "UK " in his post
of 12th Dec. *It is obviously a hugely difficult set of circumstances to
forecast and I have no problem with people getting it wrong. I am, however,
irritated by the fact that the Met Office page still offers two different
solutions for the same area/time if you compare the narrative to the maps!!

Tony

Hmmmm. And the army out in London on Saturday. If it happens; fine. If
it doesn't, it was the usual coldie, overplaying a good model cold
hand.There was and still is a chance of this happening, but the chance
of a "historic" event was low and still is. If it comes off, it will
look like a fantastic forecast. These things always do. If it doesn't
it will be quickly skipped over and forgotten in the headlong hopeful
change towards the next metre of snow that might fall (and probably
won't - this is the UK after all!). *Could happen. May happen. Actual
chances........well there's the difficult one and anyone can overplay
a hand.

Looking at the FAX charts tomorrow is just one of three possible lows
that could hit over the next three days. I know when I check in the
morning I will know one way or the other whether it's going to snow
here tomorrow, but I won't know with any confidence until then.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On Dec 17, 5:43*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Dec 17, 5:39*pm, Dawlish wrote:



On Dec 17, 11:52*am, "Tony Kenyon"
wrote:

"Teignmouth" wrote in message

....
On Dec 17, 10:02 am, Nick wrote:

Doesn't seem to agree with what Will and others are saying here, but
the latest Met Office forecast doesn't seem to suggest much snow for
London and SE England, at least over the weekend. Tomorrow's is
forecast to be "a mixture of rain, sleet and snow" and Sunday's event
doesn't seem to be happening at all.

So is there still a chance of something significant in lowland
southern England? Seems from this forecast like Saturday is now going
to be warmer than anticipated, and the low track on Sunday will miss
here.

Nick

Not wishing to state the obvious, but Will is in upland SW England,
not London, South East England or lowland southern England, his
forecast is for Dartmoor!

He did however use the terms "national emergency" and the "UK " in his post
of 12th Dec. *It is obviously a hugely difficult set of circumstances to
forecast and I have no problem with people getting it wrong. I am, however,
irritated by the fact that the Met Office page still offers two different
solutions for the same area/time if you compare the narrative to the maps!!

Tony

Hmmmm. And the army out in London on Saturday. If it happens; fine. If
it doesn't, it was the usual coldie, overplaying a good model cold
hand.There was and still is a chance of this happening, but the chance
of a "historic" event was low and still is. If it comes off, it will
look like a fantastic forecast. These things always do. If it doesn't
it will be quickly skipped over and forgotten in the headlong hopeful
change towards the next metre of snow that might fall (and probably
won't - this is the UK after all!). *Could happen. May happen. Actual
chances........well there's the difficult one and anyone can overplay
a hand.

Looking at the FAX charts tomorrow is just one of three possible lows
that could hit over the next three days. I know when I check in the
morning I will know one way or the other whether it's going to snow
here tomorrow, but I won't know with any confidence until then.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"


But why look at forecasts, when you can see it happening in real time?

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?cou...t=ir&type=loop

Why bury your head in the sand, just because of the inadequacies of
computers to forecast local events?

The development that will affect SW England through the night can now
be seen developing on the Sat loop just to the West of County Clare /
Kerry http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/modul...age.asp?id=623