.... there's a lot of talk again about 'sudden stratospheric warming'
(SSW) at the moment, and it occurred to me that some may not know where
to get the products being discussed. The Free University of Berlin have
long been involved in research into the stratosphere and they carry
output from the EC model he-

http://tinyurl.com/386nvqu

Select 10 or 30 mbar (down the side) to bring up a display of the 10-day
output (though I believe that 10 mbar is used to actually define a SSW
event).

and to plot charts from 'real' data, use the University of Wyoming site:-

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/uamap.html

and choose level, map area (North Pole), output type (PDF is best as you
can manipulate it, but it's slower to resolve) etc.

Not something I know a lot about - but a fascinating area of research.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
Location: West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023
W: booty.org.uk
E:

On Jan 6, 10:47*am, Martin Rowley
wrote:
... there's a lot of talk again about 'sudden stratospheric warming'
(SSW) at the moment, and it occurred to me that some may not know where
to get the products being discussed. The Free University of Berlin have
long been involved in research into the stratosphere and they carry
output from the EC model he-

http://tinyurl.com/386nvqu

Select 10 or 30 mbar (down the side) to bring up a display of the 10-day
output (though I believe that 10 mbar is used to actually define a SSW
event).

and to plot charts from 'real' data, use the University of Wyoming site:-

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/uamap.html

and choose level, map area (North Pole), output type (PDF is best as you
can manipulate it, but it's slower to resolve) etc.

Thank you Martin - I was scrabbling around wondering where to get
stuff like this.

Richard

On 06/01/2011 11:09, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Martin - does stratospheric warming tend to make cold spells colder but
also mild spells cooler or does it promote atmospheric conditions more
likely to produce a cold spell?
Has anyone plotted the actual correlation between previous UK notable
cold spells and 10mb heights and temperatures? That would be interesting.
Dave

.... As I wrote Dave, it's not an area that I know a lot about and I
don't want to pretend I do; I've done a bit of reading up, but as with
so much in atmospheric dynamics, the feedbacks involved are complex.

For example, it is thought (Columbia Uni), that upward propagating
energy from disrupting tropospheric Rossby long-waves interact
with/counteract the stratospheric 'zonal' (i.e. normal westerly) flow,
and in-extremis, this then 'stimulates' the stratosphere to resonate
back downwards to interact with the upper troposphere, which in turn
re-inforces the blocking phase, which then feeds back to the
stratosphere etc., etc. It doesn't happen every year - or every other
year - or every 10 years etc., but 'minor' events do occur each winter.

In other words, I suspect that the mechanism is fiendishly complex.

My (very immature) view is that if the interactive phasing is such that
the stratospheric dipole phase 'locks' perfectly with the tropospheric
block, then the block as we see it tends to persist for lengthy periods
- this would tend at this time of year to imply lower temperatures as it
gives the surface/lower atmosphere time to cool down.

I'm sure I remember someone doing research as you have suggested (i.e.
linkage between 10 mbar and European conditions), but can't put my
finger on it ... anyone else?

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
Location: West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023
W: booty.org.uk
E:

Do we think that Will has got a view on this lads ?

RonB


"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
On 06/01/2011 11:09, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Martin - does stratospheric warming tend to make cold spells colder but
also mild spells cooler or does it promote atmospheric conditions more
likely to produce a cold spell?
Has anyone plotted the actual correlation between previous UK notable
cold spells and 10mb heights and temperatures? That would be interesting.
Dave

... As I wrote Dave, it's not an area that I know a lot about and I don't
want to pretend I do; I've done a bit of reading up, but as with so much
in atmospheric dynamics, the feedbacks involved are complex.

For example, it is thought (Columbia Uni), that upward propagating energy
from disrupting tropospheric Rossby long-waves interact with/counteract
the stratospheric 'zonal' (i.e. normal westerly) flow, and in-extremis,
this then 'stimulates' the stratosphere to resonate back downwards to
interact with the upper troposphere, which in turn re-inforces the
blocking phase, which then feeds back to the stratosphere etc., etc. It
doesn't happen every year - or every other year - or every 10 years etc.,
but 'minor' events do occur each winter.

In other words, I suspect that the mechanism is fiendishly complex.

My (very immature) view is that if the interactive phasing is such that
the stratospheric dipole phase 'locks' perfectly with the tropospheric
block, then the block as we see it tends to persist for lengthy periods -
this would tend at this time of year to imply lower temperatures as it
gives the surface/lower atmosphere time to cool down.

I'm sure I remember someone doing research as you have suggested (i.e.
linkage between 10 mbar and European conditions), but can't put my finger
on it ... anyone else?

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
Location: West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023
W: booty.org.uk
E:

There is a modest example here I did showing interaction between the surface
and stratospheric levels Martin

http://www.woksat.info/wwp/Low01nov09.pdf

--
Bernard Burton

Wokingham Berkshire.

Weather data and satellite images at:
www.woksat.info/wwp.html

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
On 06/01/2011 11:09, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Martin - does stratospheric warming tend to make cold spells colder but
also mild spells cooler or does it promote atmospheric conditions more
likely to produce a cold spell?
Has anyone plotted the actual correlation between previous UK notable
cold spells and 10mb heights and temperatures? That would be interesting.
Dave

... As I wrote Dave, it's not an area that I know a lot about and I don't
want to pretend I do; I've done a bit of reading up, but as with so much
in atmospheric dynamics, the feedbacks involved are complex.

For example, it is thought (Columbia Uni), that upward propagating energy
from disrupting tropospheric Rossby long-waves interact with/counteract
the stratospheric 'zonal' (i.e. normal westerly) flow, and in-extremis,
this then 'stimulates' the stratosphere to resonate back downwards to
interact with the upper troposphere, which in turn re-inforces the
blocking phase, which then feeds back to the stratosphere etc., etc. It
doesn't happen every year - or every other year - or every 10 years etc.,
but 'minor' events do occur each winter.

In other words, I suspect that the mechanism is fiendishly complex.

My (very immature) view is that if the interactive phasing is such that
the stratospheric dipole phase 'locks' perfectly with the tropospheric
block, then the block as we see it tends to persist for lengthy periods -
this would tend at this time of year to imply lower temperatures as it
gives the surface/lower atmosphere time to cool down.

I'm sure I remember someone doing research as you have suggested (i.e.
linkage between 10 mbar and European conditions), but can't put my finger
on it ... anyone else?

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
Location: West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023
W: booty.org.uk
E:

Excellent stuff Bernard and Martin many thanks.

One small point it is the breaking Rossby waves that interact with the
stratosphere not disrupting (which has a different meaning).
Also just to say that warming is underway now and may well become major
(though not certain by any means).

I will be looking for an intense cold pool (480 DAM) heading towards Jan
Mayen early next week when the
upper flow will become distorted and another major block develops as winds
rush in from the NE. Hard to say where the block could occur but given past
events I would favour a massive Greenland/Iceland high with a bitter
(possibly record breaking, given recent weather in Scandinavia) NE'ly
setting in for the second half of January.
Such a transition is likely to occur rapidly and models could well end up
playing "catch up".

Something for the "coldies" to look forward to :-)

Will
--

"Bernard Burton" wrote in message
...
There is a modest example here I did showing interaction between the
surface and stratospheric levels Martin

http://www.woksat.info/wwp/Low01nov09.pdf

--
Bernard Burton

Wokingham Berkshire.

Weather data and satellite images at:
www.woksat.info/wwp.html

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
On 06/01/2011 11:09, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Martin - does stratospheric warming tend to make cold spells colder but
also mild spells cooler or does it promote atmospheric conditions more
likely to produce a cold spell?
Has anyone plotted the actual correlation between previous UK notable
cold spells and 10mb heights and temperatures? That would be
interesting.
Dave

... As I wrote Dave, it's not an area that I know a lot about and I don't
want to pretend I do; I've done a bit of reading up, but as with so much
in atmospheric dynamics, the feedbacks involved are complex.

For example, it is thought (Columbia Uni), that upward propagating energy
from disrupting tropospheric Rossby long-waves interact with/counteract
the stratospheric 'zonal' (i.e. normal westerly) flow, and in-extremis,
this then 'stimulates' the stratosphere to resonate back downwards to
interact with the upper troposphere, which in turn re-inforces the
blocking phase, which then feeds back to the stratosphere etc., etc. It
doesn't happen every year - or every other year - or every 10 years etc.,
but 'minor' events do occur each winter.

In other words, I suspect that the mechanism is fiendishly complex.

My (very immature) view is that if the interactive phasing is such that
the stratospheric dipole phase 'locks' perfectly with the tropospheric
block, then the block as we see it tends to persist for lengthy periods -
this would tend at this time of year to imply lower temperatures as it
gives the surface/lower atmosphere time to cool down.

I'm sure I remember someone doing research as you have suggested (i.e.
linkage between 10 mbar and European conditions), but can't put my
finger on it ... anyone else?

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
Location: West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023
W: booty.org.uk
E:

Could the GFS be on to something around the 19th?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Could the GFS be on to something around the 19th?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png


Wow!
That's certainly the sort of thing that I was hinting it!

Will
--

Here's what Steve Murr is saying over on TWO
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...ts&t=2690&p=14


Evening All-

I think we are poised nicely as we head to the second third of the
month-

Fair play to the people that called mild-- the variation in track has
been north then South, however the Smoothed mean is in exactly the
place where we dont want it-

The - AO blocking is there & still developing- also beginning to force
the PV lobe into the Northern part of scandi @ day 6- which is where I
expected to be ( day 10 4 days ago)- we havent tapped it though
because the jet streak has been to strong-

Things to look out for which is driving the renewed heights over
Greenland is the developments of something similar to an archambault
storm where a HUGE system runs to the East coast but stays up the
Western side of Greenland-
The GFS has repetatively modelled this feature- born out of a wedge of
the PV arriving on the NW coast of America courtesy of being shunted
out of the pole by that huge high-
http://91.121.84.31/mode...s/run/gfsnh-0-228.png?12 DAY 10-

That track looks to be almost horseshoe shaped across the US- heading
back to the west side of the pole 'forcing' a East based NAO --
With all the cold air & sandwiched PV sitting over western Russia
there is our 'BIG' chance of the Winter ...

The mild looks like being a 3-6 day affair in the South & a 1-3 day
stint in the North- which i guess isnt all that bad- I dont see a
zonal flow lasting - although at 144 it looks about as zonal as it
gets on the Western European charts- its only when you look at the NH
do you realise its not straight forward-

look for those developments as well the PV sanwiched in Northern
europe to remain in Situ for a few days before hopefully being kicked
west- often these affairs do take 1/2 even 3 bites of the
retrogressive cherry!!

I think Joe is going for the mild option ,but then difficult to interpret as
ever...

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp

RonB
"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Here's what Steve Murr is saying over on TWO
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...ts&t=2690&p=14


Evening All-

I think we are poised nicely as we head to the second third of the
month-

Fair play to the people that called mild-- the variation in track has
been north then South, however the Smoothed mean is in exactly the
place where we dont want it-

The - AO blocking is there & still developing- also beginning to force
the PV lobe into the Northern part of scandi @ day 6- which is where I
expected to be ( day 10 4 days ago)- we havent tapped it though
because the jet streak has been to strong-

Things to look out for which is driving the renewed heights over
Greenland is the developments of something similar to an archambault
storm where a HUGE system runs to the East coast but stays up the
Western side of Greenland-
The GFS has repetatively modelled this feature- born out of a wedge of
the PV arriving on the NW coast of America courtesy of being shunted
out of the pole by that huge high-
http://91.121.84.31/mode...s/run/gfsnh-0-228.png?12 DAY 10-

That track looks to be almost horseshoe shaped across the US- heading
back to the west side of the pole 'forcing' a East based NAO --
With all the cold air & sandwiched PV sitting over western Russia
there is our 'BIG' chance of the Winter ...

The mild looks like being a 3-6 day affair in the South & a 1-3 day
stint in the North- which i guess isnt all that bad- I dont see a
zonal flow lasting - although at 144 it looks about as zonal as it
gets on the Western European charts- its only when you look at the NH
do you realise its not straight forward-

look for those developments as well the PV sanwiched in Northern
europe to remain in Situ for a few days before hopefully being kicked
west- often these affairs do take 1/2 even 3 bites of the
retrogressive cherry!!