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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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How are we do this?
How much warmer than average and for how long? Can I suggest: Max daily temp 2 degrees C above average any time in the autumn months of Sep. to Nov. and for more than one day. The average (over last 10 years) max for Wembury for the last week of September is 17.5C. So I will be looking for 19.5C. The forecast discombobulated upper trough, cutting off the N. Atlantic air, and giving a SE wind is the business, and is likely to easily give max temps of 20C or more. The last time we had such conditions around here in the last week of September was in 1985. Plymouth Mt Batten recorded 26 Sep 21.2C 27 Sep 21.4C 28 Sep 20.3C 29 Sep 20.7C 30 Sep 21.0C Indian Summers have occurred in Wembury in the third week of Sep. 1998 and Sep. 2006 with a max in excess of 20C for 3 or 4 days in a row. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon , 83 m asl |
#2
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In article
, Len Wood writes: How are we do this? How much warmer than average and for how long? snip And when? I.e. what's the earliest date that counts and what's the latest date? -- John Hall "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw |
#3
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In message
, Len Wood writes How are we do this? How much warmer than average and for how long? Can I suggest: Max daily temp 2 degrees C above average any time in the autumn months of Sep. to Nov. and for more than one day. I suggest a prolonged period (1 week) of warm and bright weather. I'd tend to exclude early September (just the tail end of summer) and late November (difficult to get the warmth and brightness that late). The average (over last 10 years) max for Wembury for the last week of September is 17.5C. So I will be looking for 19.5C. The forecast discombobulated upper trough, cutting off the N. Atlantic air, and giving a SE wind is the business, and is likely to easily give max temps of 20C or more. The last time we had such conditions around here in the last week of September was in 1985. Plymouth Mt Batten recorded 26 Sep 21.2C 27 Sep 21.4C 28 Sep 20.3C 29 Sep 20.7C 30 Sep 21.0C Indian Summers have occurred in Wembury in the third week of Sep. 1998 and Sep. 2006 with a max in excess of 20C for 3 or 4 days in a row. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon , 83 m asl -- alias Ernest Major |
#4
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On Sep 25, 3:54*pm, Stewart Robert Hinsley
wrote: In message , Len Wood writes How are we do this? How much warmer than average and for how long? Can I suggest: Max daily temp 2 degrees C *above average any time in the autumn months of Sep. to Nov. and for more than one day. I suggest a prolonged period (1 week) of warm and bright weather. I'd tend to exclude early September (just the tail end of summer) and late November (difficult to get the warmth and brightness that late). The average (over last 10 years) max for Wembury for the last week of September is 17.5C. So I will be looking for 19.5C. The forecast discombobulated upper trough, cutting off the N. Atlantic air, and giving a SE wind is the business, and is likely to easily give max temps of 20C or more. The last time we had such conditions around here in the last week of September was in 1985. Plymouth Mt Batten recorded 26 Sep 21.2C 27 Sep 21.4C 28 Sep 20.3C 29 Sep 20.7C 30 Sep 21.0C Indian Summers have occurred in Wembury in the third week of Sep. 1998 and Sep. 2006 with a max in excess of 20C for 3 or 4 days in a row. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon , 83 m asl -- alias Ernest Major- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I was wondering about start and end dates too. The average max for the last week in Nov in Wembury is 10.3C so a few days with max of 12.3 C would count as an Indian summer? Clearly not. Perhaps an Indian summer has to have max of 20C and is more tied with the synoptics which can bring air from a still warm continent. So October would be the latest for such a delight. Len Wembury |
#5
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![]() "Len Wood" wrote in message ... On Sep 25, 3:54 pm, Stewart Robert Hinsley wrote: In message , Len Wood writes How are we do this? How much warmer than average and for how long? Can I suggest: Max daily temp 2 degrees C above average any time in the autumn months of Sep. to Nov. and for more than one day. I suggest a prolonged period (1 week) of warm and bright weather. I'd tend to exclude early September (just the tail end of summer) and late November (difficult to get the warmth and brightness that late). The average (over last 10 years) max for Wembury for the last week of September is 17.5C. So I will be looking for 19.5C. The forecast discombobulated upper trough, cutting off the N. Atlantic air, and giving a SE wind is the business, and is likely to easily give max temps of 20C or more. The last time we had such conditions around here in the last week of September was in 1985. Plymouth Mt Batten recorded 26 Sep 21.2C 27 Sep 21.4C 28 Sep 20.3C 29 Sep 20.7C 30 Sep 21.0C Indian Summers have occurred in Wembury in the third week of Sep. 1998 and Sep. 2006 with a max in excess of 20C for 3 or 4 days in a row. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon , 83 m asl -- alias Ernest Major- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I was wondering about start and end dates too. The average max for the last week in Nov in Wembury is 10.3C so a few days with max of 12.3 C would count as an Indian summer? Clearly not. Perhaps an Indian summer has to have max of 20C and is more tied with the synoptics which can bring air from a still warm continent. So October would be the latest for such a delight. Len Wembury I'd also go for "not before the equinox" also. Jim. -- Bournemouth Weather readings online: http://www.g0ofe.com/weather |
#6
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its got nothing to do with indians for a start.
thats defining. On 25/09/2011 3:22 PM, Len Wood wrote: How are we do this? |
#7
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Just enjoy it.
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#8
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On Sep 25, 6:31*pm, "Jim Smith" wrote:
"Len Wood" wrote in message ... On Sep 25, 3:54 pm, Stewart Robert Hinsley wrote: In message , Len Wood writes How are we do this? How much warmer than average and for how long? Can I suggest: Max daily temp 2 degrees C above average any time in the autumn months of Sep. to Nov. and for more than one day. I suggest a prolonged period (1 week) of warm and bright weather. I'd tend to exclude early September (just the tail end of summer) and late November (difficult to get the warmth and brightness that late). The average (over last 10 years) max for Wembury for the last week of September is 17.5C. So I will be looking for 19.5C. The forecast discombobulated upper trough, cutting off the N. Atlantic air, and giving a SE wind is the business, and is likely to easily give max temps of 20C or more. The last time we had such conditions around here in the last week of September was in 1985. Plymouth Mt Batten recorded 26 Sep 21.2C 27 Sep 21.4C 28 Sep 20.3C 29 Sep 20.7C 30 Sep 21.0C Indian Summers have occurred in Wembury in the third week of Sep. 1998 and Sep. 2006 with a max in excess of 20C for 3 or 4 days in a row. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon , 83 m asl -- alias Ernest Major- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I was wondering about start and end dates too. The average max for the last week in Nov in Wembury is 10.3C so a few days with max of 12.3 C would count as an Indian summer? Clearly not. Perhaps an Indian summer has to have max of 20C and is more tied with the synoptics which can bring air from a still warm continent. So October would be the latest for such a delight. Len Wembury I'd also go for "not before the equinox" also. Jim. -- Bournemouth Weather readings online:http://www.g0ofe.com/weather ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think we have a consensus here that an Indian Summer in the UK can only occur after the equinox. This is good science sense as the solar receipt is an important controlling factor. We have had, and are having, an Indian Summer here in Wembury. Yesterday's max 23.0C, today's 22.8C. Average for the last week of Sep. is 17.5C So we are 5 degC above average. Perhaps my quailfying temp of 2 degC above average is too low. Anyone any thoughts on this? Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon, 83 m asl |
#9
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In article
, Len Wood writes: We have had, and are having, an Indian Summer here in Wembury. Yesterday's max 23.0C, today's 22.8C. Average for the last week of Sep. is 17.5C So we are 5 degC above average. Perhaps my quailfying temp of 2 degC above average is too low. Anyone any thoughts on this? I think that this Indian Summer is more "intense" than most, and that 2 degC is probably OK as a threshold so long as there is prolonged sunshine and the wind isn't too strong. I think that those factors are as important as the temperature. If it's overcast, then it won't be perceived as an Indian Summer even if it's warm. -- John Hall "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw |
#10
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In message
, Len Wood writes On Sep 25, 6:31*pm, "Jim Smith" wrote: "Len Wood" wrote in message ... On Sep 25, 3:54 pm, Stewart Robert Hinsley wrote: In message , Len Wood writes How are we do this? How much warmer than average and for how long? Can I suggest: Max daily temp 2 degrees C above average any time in the autumn months of Sep. to Nov. and for more than one day. I suggest a prolonged period (1 week) of warm and bright weather. I'd tend to exclude early September (just the tail end of summer) and late November (difficult to get the warmth and brightness that late). The average (over last 10 years) max for Wembury for the last week of September is 17.5C. So I will be looking for 19.5C. The forecast discombobulated upper trough, cutting off the N. Atlantic air, and giving a SE wind is the business, and is likely to easily give max temps of 20C or more. The last time we had such conditions around here in the last week of September was in 1985. Plymouth Mt Batten recorded 26 Sep 21.2C 27 Sep 21.4C 28 Sep 20.3C 29 Sep 20.7C 30 Sep 21.0C Indian Summers have occurred in Wembury in the third week of Sep. 1998 and Sep. 2006 with a max in excess of 20C for 3 or 4 days in a row. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon , 83 m asl -- alias Ernest Major- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I was wondering about start and end dates too. The average max for the last week in Nov in Wembury is 10.3C so a few days with max of 12.3 C would count as an Indian summer? Clearly not. Perhaps an Indian summer has to have max of 20C and is more tied with the synoptics which can bring air from a still warm continent. So October would be the latest for such a delight. Len Wembury I'd also go for "not before the equinox" also. Jim. -- Bournemouth Weather readings online:http://www.g0ofe.com/weather ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------- I think we have a consensus here that an Indian Summer in the UK can only occur after the equinox. As I wrote earlier, I wouldn't say that Indian Summer is appropriate to describe an early September warm spell. But restricting it to occurrences after the equinox might be too much - would you say that a spell running from the 18th to the 28th September was not an Indian Summer. A possible rule of thumb is that an Indian Summer ends after the equinox. This is good science sense as the solar receipt is an important controlling factor. We have had, and are having, an Indian Summer here in Wembury. Yesterday's max 23.0C, today's 22.8C. Average for the last week of Sep. is 17.5C So we are 5 degC above average. Perhaps my quailfying temp of 2 degC above average is too low. Anyone any thoughts on this? Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon, 83 m asl -- Stewart Robert Hinsley |
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