"Nick Humphries" wrote in message
o.uk...
Dawlish wrote:
You can't trust any of this stuff. It's speculation on tiny
possibilities; no more.

Well, quite. The fun is in the tracking, the commentary, and watching
those probabilities grow and shrink. And whilst the points you raise
may be valid ones, your personality negates any contribution you make.

Dawlish may have an irritating way of expressing himself (although I find
the childish and insulting reponses to him from Lawrence and the
name-changing idiot to be far more annoying), but he serves a useful
function on this group by urging a clear distinction between forecast,
speculation and fantasy (and reminding us that forecasts should be judged on
their results).

Forecast, speculation and fantasy are all fine and worthy of discussion
here, but often they are mixed up and it's not always clear which category
some comments fall into. And something which originally looks like a
forecast is often recast after the event as mere speculation when it doesn't
happen.

It would be useful if people could give some indication of probability when
making statements about the future. I don't mean necessarily a mathematical
percentage, simply an informal expression like "likely", "highly likely",
"possible", etc, would do.

On Dec 4, 12:06*pm, "Gavino" wrote:
"Nick Humphries" wrote in message

o.uk...

Dawlish wrote:
You can't trust any of this stuff. It's speculation on tiny
possibilities; no more.

Well, quite. The fun is in the tracking, the commentary, and watching
those probabilities grow and shrink. And whilst the points you raise
may be valid ones, your personality negates any contribution you make.

Dawlish may have an irritating way of expressing himself (although I find
the childish and insulting reponses to him from Lawrence and the
name-changing idiot to be far more annoying), but he serves a useful
function on this group by urging a clear distinction between forecast,
speculation and fantasy (and reminding us that forecasts should be judged on
their results).

Forecast, speculation and fantasy are all fine and worthy of discussion
here, but often they are mixed up and it's not always clear which category
some comments fall into. And something which originally looks like a
forecast is often recast after the event as mere speculation when it doesn't
happen.

It would be useful if people could give some indication of probability when
making statements about the future. I don't mean necessarily a mathematical
percentage, simply an informal expression like "likely", "highly likely",
"possible", etc, would do.

And you are who? Why don't people use their real names. Looking at
your profile it would seem you come from the land of silly false ID's.
and you call me childish-bloody unbelievable!

"Gavino" wrote in message
...
"Nick Humphries" wrote in message
o.uk...
Dawlish wrote:
You can't trust any of this stuff. It's speculation on tiny
possibilities; no more.

Well, quite. The fun is in the tracking, the commentary, and watching
those probabilities grow and shrink. And whilst the points you raise
may be valid ones, your personality negates any contribution you make.

Dawlish may have an irritating way of expressing himself (although I find
the childish and insulting reponses to him from Lawrence and the
name-changing idiot to be far more annoying), but he serves a useful
function on this group by urging a clear distinction between forecast,
speculation and fantasy (and reminding us that forecasts should be judged
on
their results).

Forecast, speculation and fantasy are all fine and worthy of discussion
here, but often they are mixed up and it's not always clear which category
some comments fall into. And something which originally looks like a
forecast is often recast after the event as mere speculation when it
doesn't
happen.

It would be useful if people could give some indication of probability
when
making statements about the future. I don't mean necessarily a
mathematical
percentage, simply an informal expression like "likely", "highly likely",
"possible", etc, would do.

All my musings are a commentary on the situation indicating possibilities
and are not always model based (one can talk meteorology without mentioning
models). All commentaries are based on 40 years of professional experience
and are definitely not idle speculation. I also like to try and educate as
well, but sometimes get misunderstood. For example, polar lows can indeed
deposit a foot of level snow and do indeed need to be taken seriously as
they are primarily convective in nature with large flakes of wet sticky snow
which accumulate rapidly. Seen it all before several times. Also talking
about weather should be fun, being continually held to account takes a lot
of the fun out of it. Out of interest I have kill-filed Dawlish, not because
I necessarily disagree with what he says, but because I do not have time for
never-ending discussions which frankly I couldn't resist to join in. So I
have kill-filed for my own sanity really. Selfish perhaps, but I can and I
do. Yes forecasters should ultimately be judged by results, but that is far
too formal for a weather discussion group IMO. FWIW many people take my
weekly Darmoor forecast and I know for a fact some even use it as a primary
source of information for planning, which is a bit scarey (as it is
sometimes wrong, like today), but also rewarding. If they find it
consistently useful, then that is good enough for me! I'm not concerned with
bragging about percentage success ratios, do all that at work assessing
research results etc, I come on here for fun and relaxation TBH but at the
same time to try and help others. Goodness knows why I am now justifying
what I say and do though? :-)

Cheers,

Will
--

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message
...

"Gavino" wrote in message
...
"Nick Humphries" wrote in message
o.uk...
Dawlish wrote:
You can't trust any of this stuff. It's speculation on tiny
possibilities; no more.

Well, quite. The fun is in the tracking, the commentary, and watching
those probabilities grow and shrink. And whilst the points you raise
may be valid ones, your personality negates any contribution you make.

Dawlish may have an irritating way of expressing himself (although I find
the childish and insulting reponses to him from Lawrence and the
name-changing idiot to be far more annoying), but he serves a useful
function on this group by urging a clear distinction between forecast,
speculation and fantasy (and reminding us that forecasts should be judged
on
their results).

Forecast, speculation and fantasy are all fine and worthy of discussion
here, but often they are mixed up and it's not always clear which
category
some comments fall into. And something which originally looks like a
forecast is often recast after the event as mere speculation when it
doesn't
happen.

It would be useful if people could give some indication of probability
when
making statements about the future. I don't mean necessarily a
mathematical
percentage, simply an informal expression like "likely", "highly likely",
"possible", etc, would do.

All my musings are a commentary on the situation indicating possibilities
and are not always model based (one can talk meteorology without
mentioning models). All commentaries are based on 40 years of professional
experience and are definitely not idle speculation. I also like to try and
educate as well, but sometimes get misunderstood. For example, polar lows
can indeed deposit a foot of level snow and do indeed need to be taken
seriously as they are primarily convective in nature with large flakes of
wet sticky snow which accumulate rapidly. Seen it all before several
times. Also talking about weather should be fun, being continually held to
account takes a lot of the fun out of it. Out of interest I have
kill-filed Dawlish, not because I necessarily disagree with what he says,
but because I do not have time for never-ending discussions which frankly
I couldn't resist to join in. So I have kill-filed for my own sanity
really. Selfish perhaps, but I can and I do. Yes forecasters should
ultimately be judged by results, but that is far too formal for a weather
discussion group IMO. FWIW many people take my weekly Darmoor forecast and
I know for a fact some even use it as a primary source of information for
planning, which is a bit scarey (as it is sometimes wrong, like today),
but also rewarding. If they find it consistently useful, then that is good
enough for me! I'm not concerned with bragging about percentage success
ratios, do all that at work assessing research results etc, I come on here
for fun and relaxation TBH but at the same time to try and help others.
Goodness knows why I am now justifying what I say and do though? :-)

Cheers,

Will
--


I blocked Dawlish long ago. Apart from the irritating way of expressing
himself (well put) He has no input of his own other than boring commentaries
on the constantly changing probabilities. We have an excellent model
interpretation from Darren every morning so the group doesn't need his slant
on the models.

The meteorological professionals input on the other hand are the reason for
my daily viewing since 2003 and long may they continue.

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message
...
snipped
......... Also talking about weather should be fun, being continually held to
account takes a lot
of the fun out of it. Out of interest I have kill-filed Dawlish, not because
I necessarily disagree with what he says, but because I do not have time for
never-ending discussions which frankly I couldn't resist to join in. So I
have kill-filed for my own sanity really. Selfish perhaps, but I can and I
do. Yes forecasters should ultimately be judged by results, but that is far
too formal for a weather discussion group IMO. FWIW many people take my
weekly Darmoor forecast and I know for a fact some even use it as a primary
source of information for planning, which is a bit scarey (as it is
sometimes wrong, like today), but also rewarding. If they find it
consistently useful, then that is good enough for me! I'm not concerned with
bragging about percentage success ratios, do all that at work assessing
research results etc, I come on here for fun and relaxation TBH but at the
same time to try and help others. Goodness knows why I am now justifying
what I say and do though? :-)

Cheers,

Will
--
==========================================

I think your point is well made. Being taken to account isn't necessarily a
bad think however it seems to be incessant of late. We're all entitled to
our opinions, views or musings and there'll be differences of opinion
naturally enough. Paul has very strong views on forecasting - that's
obvious - and strong opinions on those media-headline grabbing enthusiasts
out there. So do I come to think of it!

That's all well and good...however it must be realised that we should all be
responsible and mature enough to make our own judgements on what we want to
read or not read and who we might agree with or disagree with. Paul makes
has made his points on more than one occasion.

I don't see the merit anymore of Paul constantly interjecting into threads
like this one you started when both you, Paul himself and the vast majority
of other newsgroup readers know is only going to be a repeat of the
criticisms previously posted week after week. It won't change anything and
instead ruins a thread with the pro or con follow-ups from those that might
take sides and we have to wade through the posts to find genuine follow up
to the subject matter itself!

It's becoming tiresome. It's at the point where I'd nearly suggested a
thread title be prefixed with [Will] or [Paul], for example, so the rest of
us can choose to read or not read without any of the cynicism or snide
comments that arise!!!!!!! Yes, that's more a flippant suggestion than
anything else!

Kill-filing is a solution but I've applied that rarely and only to a poster
who's contribution is meaningless........constantly!

Can't we all just get along and leave people to their own opinions and if
there's a need to comment then make it more constructive and civil!?

Happy holidays! ;-)

Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

On Dec 3, 10:12*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
I was discussing this at work earlier this week with a Chief forecaster. It
has been pretty persistent for a few weeks now, never moving. It's almost as
if the progressive Rossby pattern (still spot on Len!) has cut off that part
of the Arctic leaving it to cool and cool .. Seas just to the east of
Greenland are now cold and this reservoir of deep cold air is like a tap
opening up and flooding south to re-inforce the Atlantic baroclinicity in
the cold westerly, preventing blocking further east. Over time the colder
air has come further south and now Scotland is set to turn very cold, though
still with milder interludes in the mobility. The big question is will a
mid-Atlantic ridge amplify due to upstream trough extension over Canada. All
eyes to the Pacific I guess. So it seems for the time being at least we are
looking at cold mobility with lots of fascinating wintry detail to get hold
of, especially, but not exclusively in northern areas!

Ciao, winter weather watchers :-)

Will
--

thanks for the explanation, Will. Ignore the one or two sad b*stards
on here who seem to delight in trying to trump your every muttering.
Personally, while I like cold weather, I couldn't give a monkey's what
it is like over Xmas and will take whatever comes this way. I will be
flying to Belfast over the festive period so mild would be great in
terms of ease of travelling. However, the present set-up has got to be
good for the chances of a snowy walk up Slieve Donard while I'm
there...

On Dec 4, 6:17*pm, "Joe Whyte" wrote:
"Eskimo Will" *wrote in message

...
snipped
........ Also talking about weather should be fun, being continually held to
account takes a lot
of the fun out of it. Out of interest I have kill-filed Dawlish, not because
I necessarily disagree with what he says, but because I do not have time for
never-ending discussions which frankly I couldn't resist to join in. So I
have kill-filed for my own sanity really. Selfish perhaps, but I can and I
do. Yes forecasters should ultimately be judged by results, but that is far
too formal for a weather discussion group IMO. FWIW many people take my
weekly Darmoor forecast and I know for a fact some even use it as a primary
source of information for planning, which is a bit scarey (as it is
sometimes wrong, like today), but also rewarding. If they find it
consistently useful, then that is good enough for me! I'm not concerned with
bragging about percentage success ratios, do all that at work assessing
research results etc, I come on here for fun and relaxation TBH but at the
same time to try and help others. Goodness knows why I am now justifying
what I say and do though? :-)

Cheers,

Will
--
==========================================

I think your point is well made. Being taken to account isn't necessarily a
bad think however it seems to be incessant of late. We're all entitled to
our opinions, views or musings and there'll be differences of opinion
naturally enough. Paul has very strong views on forecasting - that's
obvious - and strong opinions on those media-headline grabbing enthusiasts
out there. So do I come to think of it!

That's all well and good...however it must be realised that we should all be
responsible and mature enough to make our own judgements on what we want to
read or not read and who we might agree with or disagree with. Paul makes
has made his points on more than one occasion.

I don't see the merit anymore of Paul constantly interjecting into threads
like this one you started when both you, Paul himself and the vast majority
of other newsgroup readers know is only going to be a repeat of the
criticisms previously posted week after week. It won't change anything and
instead ruins a thread with the pro or con follow-ups from those that might
take sides and we have to wade through the posts to find genuine follow up
to the subject matter itself!

It's becoming tiresome. It's at the point where I'd nearly suggested a
thread title be prefixed with [Will] or [Paul], for example, so the rest of
us can choose to read or not read without any of the cynicism or snide
comments that arise!!!!!!! *Yes, that's more a flippant suggestion than
anything else!

Kill-filing is a solution but I've applied that rarely and only to a poster
who's contribution is meaningless........constantly!

Can't we all just get along and leave people to their own opinions and if
there's a need to comment then make it more constructive and civil!?

Happy holidays! * *;-)

Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

Hmmmmm. "I don't see the merit anymore of Paul constantly interjecting
into threads like this one you started": oddly; I do. And that right
will continue to be exercised when I see blatent exaggeration of
whatever cold situation happens to arise. It irritates some people and
others enjoy seeing people taken to task for doing the exaggeration
for effect.

I would never kill-file anyone; I like to be able to reply if someone
posts something foul about me, or others. I'll ignore the worst, but
I'll always reply if I wish to. That's what usenet is about. My
replies are never foul-mouthed, but I do ask awkward questions. Kill-
filing is as much of a right, however, as the right of reply and
however silly I think it may be (the three monkeys come to mind)
people have every right to do it. To say that one kill-files "to avoid
never ending discussions" is frankly ridiculous to me. Never-ending
discussions are again what usenet is about - see the one that Will
started himself on his picket line duty and then returned to many
times. Will actually kill files to try to avoid criticism of his weak
long-range record (it is - that's a fact and it's no different to
anyone else's, but it is no better than "weak") and the embarrassment
at being found wanting, on occasions, by a mere enthusiast. I'm no
respecter of "reputations"; a reoutation is not what makes a person,
for me, though I'm happy for others to feel whichever way they wish
about people's abilities in whatever sphere.

Enjoy Will's posts, but if they are, as I've said, blatant
exaggerratons to hope for cold, I'm likely to say something; fair
enough? Time for me to move on to the 18z...........

go on make it 2000+ bile filled posts a month on usenet, go on make it a
world record



On 04/12/2011 6:42 PM, Dawlish wrote:


I think your point is well made. Being taken to account isn't necessarily a
bad think however it seems to be incessant of late. We're all entitled to
our opinions, views or musings and there'll be differences of opinion
naturally enough. Paul has very strong views on forecasting - that's
obvious - and strong opinions on those media-headline grabbing enthusiasts
out there. So do I come to think of it!

That's all well and good...however it must be realised that we should all be
responsible and mature enough to make our own judgements on what we want to
read or not read and who we might agree with or disagree with. Paul makes
has made his points on more than one occasion.

I don't see the merit anymore of Paul constantly interjecting into threads
like this one you started when both you, Paul himself and the vast majority
of other newsgroup readers know is only going to be a repeat of the
criticisms previously posted week after week. It won't change anything and
instead ruins a thread with the pro or con follow-ups from those that might
take sides and we have to wade through the posts to find genuine follow up
to the subject matter itself!

It's becoming tiresome. It's at the point where I'd nearly suggested a
thread title be prefixed with [Will] or [Paul], for example, so the rest of
us can choose to read or not read without any of the cynicism or snide
comments that arise!!!!!!! Yes, that's more a flippant suggestion than
anything else!

Kill-filing is a solution but I've applied that rarely and only to a poster
who's contribution is meaningless........constantly!

Can't we all just get along and leave people to their own opinions and if
there's a need to comment then make it more constructive and civil!?

Happy holidays! ;-)

Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

Hmmmmm. "I don't see the merit anymore of Paul constantly interjecting
into threads like this one you started": oddly; I do. And that right
will continue to be exercised when I see blatent exaggeration of
whatever cold situation happens to arise. It irritates some people and
others enjoy seeing people taken to task for doing the exaggeration
for effect.

I would never kill-file anyone; I like to be able to reply if someone
posts something foul about me, or others. I'll ignore the worst, but
I'll always reply if I wish to. That's what usenet is about. My
replies are never foul-mouthed, but I do ask awkward questions. Kill-
filing is as much of a right, however, as the right of reply and
however silly I think it may be (the three monkeys come to mind)
people have every right to do it. To say that one kill-files "to avoid
never ending discussions" is frankly ridiculous to me. Never-ending
discussions are again what usenet is about - see the one that Will
started himself on his picket line duty and then returned to many
times. Will actually kill files to try to avoid criticism of his weak
long-range record (it is - that's a fact and it's no different to
anyone else's, but it is no better than "weak") and the embarrassment
at being found wanting, on occasions, by a mere enthusiast. I'm no
respecter of "reputations"; a reoutation is not what makes a person,
for me, though I'm happy for others to feel whichever way they wish
about people's abilities in whatever sphere.

Enjoy Will's posts, but if they are, as I've said, blatant
exaggerratons to hope for cold, I'm likely to say something; fair
enough? Time for me to move on to the 18z...........

i think that makes it dullish 0 Will 20 so far


On 04/12/2011 6:36 PM, Scott W wrote:


thanks for the explanation, Will. Ignore the one or two sad b*stards
on here who seem to delight in trying to trump your every muttering.
Personally, while I like cold weather, I couldn't give a monkey's what
it is like over Xmas and will take whatever comes this way. I will be
flying to Belfast over the festive period so mild would be great in
terms of ease of travelling. However, the present set-up has got to be
good for the chances of a snowy walk up Slieve Donard while I'm
there...

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

Hmmmmm. "I don't see the merit anymore of Paul constantly interjecting
into threads like this one you started": oddly; I do. And that right
will continue to be exercised when I see blatent exaggeration of
whatever cold situation happens to arise. It irritates some people and
others enjoy seeing people taken to task for doing the exaggeration
for effect.

I would never kill-file anyone; I like to be able to reply if someone
posts something foul about me, or others. I'll ignore the worst, but
I'll always reply if I wish to. That's what usenet is about. My
replies are never foul-mouthed, but I do ask awkward questions. Kill-
filing is as much of a right, however, as the right of reply and
however silly I think it may be (the three monkeys come to mind)
people have every right to do it. To say that one kill-files "to avoid
never ending discussions" is frankly ridiculous to me. Never-ending
discussions are again what usenet is about - see the one that Will
started himself on his picket line duty and then returned to many
times. Will actually kill files to try to avoid criticism of his weak
long-range record (it is - that's a fact and it's no different to
anyone else's, but it is no better than "weak") and the embarrassment
at being found wanting, on occasions, by a mere enthusiast. I'm no
respecter of "reputations"; a reoutation is not what makes a person,
for me, though I'm happy for others to feel whichever way they wish
about people's abilities in whatever sphere.

Enjoy Will's posts, but if they are, as I've said, blatant
exaggerratons to hope for cold, I'm likely to say something; fair
enough? Time for me to move on to the 18z...........
================================================== ==

Paul, your response is as I had expected. Naturally you're entitled to reply
to anything...as we all are. My own opinion is that in your replies you
express the same things (to Will anyway) over and over and, rightly or
wrongly, it comes across almost as a form of harassment!!!

I do think though you give yourself too much credit if you think Will
kill-filed you to avoid criticism of "his weak long-range record" or that
he's embarrassed at being "found wanting"!!??? From reading Will's posts
from the time I've subscribed to this newsgroup many, many years ago(!), I
wouldn't think that's Will's reasoning to kill-file you...but then I can't
and don't speak for him. It seems to me that you do have a very high opinion
of yourself and your influence on the actions or behaviour of people on this
newsgroup. It's for others to judge of course whether that is merited or
not. As far as I'm concerned I don't think it is, Paul, but then as I'm sure
you'll ay my opinion counts for nought! *) ! You contribute valuable posts
but the "badgering" of those you seem to have taken umbrage is taking away
from the social aspect of this newsgroup where mere enthusiasts like you
(and me) can engage with those more qualified in the field of meteorology
and learn at the same time.

I'll read Will's posts, Paul, and I'll make my own judgements and comment
back to Will as I see fit when there's something to query, challenge or
whatever.

Enjoy your 18z but remember it's only one run!!!! ;-

Any chance you might try a post to weatheraction.com and see if "yer man"
would reply!??? I've given up there...

Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL