After the model ups and downs of the last 2 days, it appears that it
might be back to the usual 2010-11 winter fare. Agreement and
consistency are creeping back into the models and a zonal outlook
towards mid-month looks the most likely outcome. See if the agreement
continues into tomorrow.

On Jan 3, 9:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:
After the model ups and downs of the last 2 days, it appears that it
might be back to the usual 2010-11 winter fare. Agreement and
consistency are creeping back into the models and a zonal outlook
towards mid-month looks the most likely outcome. See if the agreement
continues into tomorrow.

whilst there has been plenty of interest in this set-up - especially
today - I don't know how much more I can take of this. It seems to
have all the hallmarks of 1989... though perhaps we have a decent
summer to look forward to if it is anything like that year...

On Jan 3, 9:27*pm, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 3, 9:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:

After the model ups and downs of the last 2 days, it appears that it
might be back to the usual 2010-11 winter fare. Agreement and
consistency are creeping back into the models and a zonal outlook
towards mid-month looks the most likely outcome. See if the agreement
continues into tomorrow.

whilst there has been plenty of interest in this set-up - especially
today - I don't know how much more I can take of this. It seems to
have all the hallmarks of 1989... though perhaps we have a decent
summer to look forward to if it is anything like that year...

There's been some lovely winter weather down here Scott! No real
change from yesterday evening's operationals and the gfs 00z ensembles
now show quite a mildening to 8/9 days with potentially a succession
of more dry and mild days to come next week:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

PS I do hope you are right about the summer. There must be a dry and a
warm one on the way soon! maybe we could get PWS to hopecast for one
again!

On Jan 4, 10:57*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 3, 9:27*pm, Scott W wrote:

On Jan 3, 9:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:

After the model ups and downs of the last 2 days, it appears that it
might be back to the usual 2010-11 winter fare. Agreement and
consistency are creeping back into the models and a zonal outlook
towards mid-month looks the most likely outcome. See if the agreement
continues into tomorrow.

whilst there has been plenty of interest in this set-up - especially
today - I don't know how much more I can take of this. It seems to
have all the hallmarks of 1989... though perhaps we have a decent
summer to look forward to if it is anything like that year...

There's been some lovely winter weather down here Scott! No real
change from yesterday evening's operationals and the gfs 00z ensembles
now show quite a mildening to 8/9 days with potentially a succession
of more dry and mild days to come next week:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

PS I do hope you are right about the summer. There must be a dry and a
warm one on the way soon! maybe we could get PWS to hopecast for one
again!

Annoying in many ways, as the 12z ECM ruins any consistency and it
certainly shows no agreement with the 12z gfs. It's likely to be an
outlier, but I suppose the one operational run could offer succour to
a coldie, or two. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Annoying in many ways, as the 12z ECM ruins any consistency and it
certainly shows no agreement with the 12z gfs. It's likely to be an
outlier, but I suppose the one operational run could offer succour to
a coldie, or two. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

It's certainly very different at T+240 from the ensemble mean pressure
chart, which hasn't changed much.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

On Jan 4, 9:37*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Annoying in many ways, as the 12z ECM ruins any consistency and it
certainly shows no agreement with the 12z gfs. It's likely to be an
outlier, but I suppose the one operational run could offer succour to
a coldie, or two. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

It's certainly very different at T+240 from the ensemble mean pressure
chart, which hasn't changed much.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

True John, but my forecasting method is demanding! See what tomorrow
brings - I suspect it will be a continuation of the zonal conditions,
but you can never tell whether an outlier is the first sign of a
change.

On Jan 4, 10:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 4, 9:37*pm, John Hall wrote:





In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Annoying in many ways, as the 12z ECM ruins any consistency and it
certainly shows no agreement with the 12z gfs. It's likely to be an
outlier, but I suppose the one operational run could offer succour to
a coldie, or two. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

It's certainly very different at T+240 from the ensemble mean pressure
chart, which hasn't changed much.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

True John, but my forecasting method is demanding! See what tomorrow
brings - I suspect it will be a continuation of the zonal conditions,
but you can never tell whether an outlier is the first sign of a
change.

00z ECM makes a weak stab at a Scandinavian high, but its an outlier
again. 06z gfs operational also brought an oddity (for the gfs) with
higher pressure to our east - erased on the 12z which shows zonal. 06z
ensembles show mild conditions to the 13th then cooler and wetter.
Nothing's sorted to the degree where I'd feel confident enough to
forecast with anything like 80% confidence of it being right.

On Jan 5, 4:55*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 4, 10:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 4, 9:37*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Annoying in many ways, as the 12z ECM ruins any consistency and it
certainly shows no agreement with the 12z gfs. It's likely to be an
outlier, but I suppose the one operational run could offer succour to
a coldie, or two. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

It's certainly very different at T+240 from the ensemble mean pressure
chart, which hasn't changed much.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

True John, but my forecasting method is demanding! See what tomorrow
brings - I suspect it will be a continuation of the zonal conditions,
but you can never tell whether an outlier is the first sign of a
change.

00z ECM makes a weak stab at a Scandinavian high, but its an outlier
again. 06z gfs operational also brought an oddity (for the gfs) with
higher pressure to our east - erased on the 12z which shows zonal. 06z
ensembles show mild conditions to the 13th then cooler and wetter.
Nothing's sorted to the degree where I'd feel confident enough to
forecast with anything like 80% confidence of it being right.

12z ECM puts any mid-month change in question. I think it's a big
"we'll see" on that particular hope! It's not out of the question, but
the lack of blocking will be making a few wince and shake their heads.

On Jan 5, 9:00*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 5, 4:55*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 4, 10:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 4, 9:37*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Annoying in many ways, as the 12z ECM ruins any consistency and it
certainly shows no agreement with the 12z gfs. It's likely to be an
outlier, but I suppose the one operational run could offer succour to
a coldie, or two. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

It's certainly very different at T+240 from the ensemble mean pressure
chart, which hasn't changed much.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

True John, but my forecasting method is demanding! See what tomorrow
brings - I suspect it will be a continuation of the zonal conditions,
but you can never tell whether an outlier is the first sign of a
change.

00z ECM makes a weak stab at a Scandinavian high, but its an outlier
again. 06z gfs operational also brought an oddity (for the gfs) with
higher pressure to our east - erased on the 12z which shows zonal. 06z
ensembles show mild conditions to the 13th then cooler and wetter.
Nothing's sorted to the degree where I'd feel confident enough to
forecast with anything like 80% confidence of it being right.

12z ECM puts any mid-month change in question. I think it's a big
"we'll see" on that particular hope! It's not out of the question, but
the lack of blocking will be making a few wince and shake their heads.

ECM goes for continuing zonal mid-month. gfs plays with blocking to
our East. Ensembles show a distinct cooler and wetter period from the
15th. you pays your money and you takes your chance!

On Jan 6, 7:08*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 5, 9:00*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 5, 4:55*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 4, 10:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 4, 9:37*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Annoying in many ways, as the 12z ECM ruins any consistency and it
certainly shows no agreement with the 12z gfs. It's likely to be an
outlier, but I suppose the one operational run could offer succour to
a coldie, or two. *))

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

It's certainly very different at T+240 from the ensemble mean pressure
chart, which hasn't changed much.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

True John, but my forecasting method is demanding! See what tomorrow
brings - I suspect it will be a continuation of the zonal conditions,
but you can never tell whether an outlier is the first sign of a
change.

00z ECM makes a weak stab at a Scandinavian high, but its an outlier
again. 06z gfs operational also brought an oddity (for the gfs) with
higher pressure to our east - erased on the 12z which shows zonal. 06z
ensembles show mild conditions to the 13th then cooler and wetter.
Nothing's sorted to the degree where I'd feel confident enough to
forecast with anything like 80% confidence of it being right.

12z ECM puts any mid-month change in question. I think it's a big
"we'll see" on that particular hope! It's not out of the question, but
the lack of blocking will be making a few wince and shake their heads.

ECM goes for continuing zonal mid-month. gfs plays with blocking to
our East. Ensembles show a distinct cooler and wetter period from the
15th. you pays your money and you takes your chance!

Very good agreement on mild zonal out to 8 days, with mT air being
drawn around the northern limb of a big European high, in the 12z
ensembles. After that; spaghetti, though the ensemble mean indicates a
colder, unsettled zonal flow after the 14th :

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/