Nick wrote:
On Feb 8, 7:38 pm, Dawlish wrote:
The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

Given the uncertainty about the next few days, can you really be so
sure about what happens in 10 days time?
No expert but while I can see there's agreement for some sort of
anticyclonic Nly early next week, what happens after that
would appear to be anyone's guess.

Nick
Why worry. When the time arrives I just look back to who said what when
and then make an objective judgement. It can be quite revealing.
Dave

"Joe P" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:24:39 +0000, Johndoe wrote:



child

Only 3 messages into your exchange and it's already looking dire.
I'm going to kill-file you both; Dawlish for having no perspective or
awareness (sci.weather passim), and you for being an arse.


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Please not the killfile, I beg you no, it hurts so much!



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On Feb 8, 10:26*pm, Nick wrote:
On Feb 8, 7:38*pm, Dawlish wrote:





The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

Given the uncertainty about the next few days, can you really be so
sure about what happens in 10 days time?
No expert but while I can see there's agreement for some sort of
anticyclonic Nly early next week, what happens after that
would appear to be anyone's guess.

Nick



That's where my forecasting system comes in. I'm wrong 20% of the time
Nick, but when I forecast, you can be 80% sure it will be correct.
This could be a wrong one, but if I knew that, I wouldn't have
forecast what I had, I'd have forecast something different. *))

On Feb 8, 11:12*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Nick wrote:
On Feb 8, 7:38 pm, Dawlish wrote:
The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

Given the uncertainty about the next few days, can you really be so
sure about what happens in 10 days time?
No expert but while I can see there's agreement for some sort of
anticyclonic Nly early next week, what happens after that
would appear to be anyone's guess.

Nick

Why worry. When the time arrives I just look back to who said what when
and then make an objective judgement. It can be quite revealing.
Dave

So do I - and I always return to make that objective judgement,
whether I'm right, or wrong. So should everyone who tries to forecast.
Most times, you don't actually know they've forecast something; it's a
kind of suggestion and that becomes difficult to tie down whether the
forecast is wrong and easy for the person to worm outof what they have
"forecast".

On 08/02/2012 21:01, in article
, "Johndoe"
wrote:
snip

I'm sure your response will be based around my anonymity, my response will
be the exposure of your pretentiosness.

It's certainly exposed your inability to spell 'pretentiousness' correctly.

--
Chris H,
He's predictable, but that's to be expected.

On Feb 8, 10:26*pm, Nick wrote:
On Feb 8, 7:38*pm, Dawlish wrote:





The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

Given the uncertainty about the next few days, can you really be so
sure about what happens in 10 days time?
No expert but while I can see there's agreement for some sort of
anticyclonic Nly early next week, what happens after that
would appear to be anyone's guess.

Nick



I just don't see uncertainty here. I see good agreement between the
ECM 00z and the gfs 06z now on an Atlantic flow and the gfs 00z being
a rank cold outlier at 9/10 days. The uncertainty must lie with
others, Nick.

"Chris H" wrote in message
...
On 08/02/2012 21:01, in article
, "Johndoe"
wrote:
snip

I'm sure your response will be based around my anonymity, my response
will
be the exposure of your pretentiosness.

It's certainly exposed your inability to spell 'pretentiousness'
correctly.

--
Chris H,
He's predictable, but that's to be expected.



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signature database 6871 (20120209) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com




Spelling it was not the problem, the pressing of the "u" was!



__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6871 (20120209) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

On Feb 9, 12:03*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 8, 10:26*pm, Nick wrote:





On Feb 8, 7:38*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

Given the uncertainty about the next few days, can you really be so
sure about what happens in 10 days time?
No expert but while I can see there's agreement for some sort of
anticyclonic Nly early next week, what happens after that
would appear to be anyone's guess.

Nick

I just don't see uncertainty here. I see good agreement between the
ECM 00z and the gfs 06z now on an Atlantic flow and the gfs 00z being
a rank cold outlier at 9/10 days. The uncertainty must lie with
others, Nick.

Both the 00z gfs and the 00z ECM show an Atlantic flow on the 18th.
Agreement is still good and my confidence in this is high. It's
unlikely to be mild, but the conditions will be very diferent to what
we were experiencing on the 8th.

On Feb 8, 7:38*pm, Dawlish wrote:
The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

Looking good ATM. Westerlies on Saturday, but perhaps a shift to a
short-lived lee northerly? See in the models tonight.

On Feb 8, 10:26*pm, Nick wrote:
On Feb 8, 7:38*pm, Dawlish wrote:





The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

Given the uncertainty about the next few days, can you really be so
sure about what happens in 10 days time?
No expert but while I can see there's agreement for some sort of
anticyclonic Nly early next week, what happens after that
would appear to be anyone's guess.

Nick



IMO it was well shown in the models Nick. I was able to forecast with
at least 80% certainty and the system works to that accuracy in the
instances where the criteria are satisfied. It's only possible a
couple of times a month, but no-one shows any reasonable accuracy at
10 days and the MetO, though it sort of forecasts for the public at 10
days within its 6-15 day precis, gives only an occasional indication
of whether the forecast is made with high confidence, or low
confidence.

Yes, there was uncertainty about the next few days back in the middle
of last week, but the consistency and agreement shown in the models
then allowed me to say that the cold spell would end and we'd see a
return of the Atlantic, with confidence.