A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Feb 15, 9:33*pm, Tudor Hughes wrote:
* *A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. *In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. *The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. *That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Try this one Tudor from the IPCC

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~deweaver/lo...er_uchange.pdf

Seems to be a strengthening of polar jet and a poleward shift.

Len
Wembury

On Feb 15, 11:27*pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Feb 15, 9:33*pm, Tudor Hughes wrote:

* *A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. *In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. *The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. *That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Try this one Tudor from the IPCC

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~deweaver/lo...er_uchange.pdf

Seems to be a strengthening of polar jet and a poleward shift.

Len
Wembury


Thanks for that, Len. Quite a lot to digest there and the
response of surface winds in southern Britain is not obvious. The
northward shift of the jet and the raised tropopause is to be expected
but the strengthening of the jet is not something I would have
foreseen.

On a personal note, I'd say I am now a little better informed on
the subject but this sort of research will have little impact on my
pub mate's views, he being something of a fundamentalist Green who
"knows" that everything will get worse if the temperature goes up (but
not down).

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey

On Friday, February 15, 2013 9:33:12 PM UTC, Tudor Hughes wrote:
A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I don't know about the whole world but, as far as the UK is concerned, most forecasts seem to predict a fall in gale frequencies until the 2080s when a marked increase in Summer gales is predicted. Certainly this is the case with UKCIP predictions. Presumably the reduction in winter gales is down to the reduction in the temperature gradient, but I've not read enough to be sure.

This link may work http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=3...encies&f=false If it does see Table 19.5

Certainly the reduction in gale frequencies from Shetland to west Ireland to Cornwall has been marked over the last couple of decades.

Lambs 'The English Climate shws Penzance as having around 20 gales per annum.
Average Number of gales in Pz 1991-2000 13.5
Average Number of gales in Pz 2001-2012 6.1

Graham
Penzance

On Feb 16, 1:51*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Feb 15, 11:27*pm, Len Wood wrote:





On Feb 15, 9:33*pm, Tudor Hughes wrote:

* *A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. *In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. *The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. *That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Try this one Tudor from the IPCC

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~deweaver/lo...er_uchange.pdf

Seems to be a strengthening of polar jet and a poleward shift.

Len
Wembury

* * * Thanks for that, Len. *Quite a lot to digest there and the
response of surface winds in southern Britain is not obvious. *The
northward shift of the jet and the raised tropopause is to be expected
but the strengthening of the jet is not something I would have
foreseen.

* * *On a personal note, I'd say I am now a little better informed on
the subject but this sort of research will have little impact on my
pub mate's views, he being something of a fundamentalist Green who
"knows" that everything will get worse if the temperature goes up (but
not down).

I haven't read the link yet but isn't the whole design of the
atmosphere one where heat is converted into motion?
It would be a strange creation indeed if the way the world works is to
have the occasional ice age/desert age. Or -while we are underneath
one, a meteor age.

Fancy not telling Noah about purging us with droughts and substantial
meteors when reassuring him about the new rainy stuff.

Still, never mind, eh?
Mustn't grumble, we've been alright so far.

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Friday, February 15, 2013 9:33:12 PM UTC, Tudor Hughes wrote:
A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I don't know about the whole world but, as far as the UK is concerned, most
forecasts seem to predict a fall in gale frequencies until the 2080s when a
marked increase in Summer gales is predicted.


I doubt if many of the current regulars on u.s.w. will be around to see if that
forecast works out!!!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

On Feb 16, 12:17*pm, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Friday, February 15, 2013 9:33:12 PM UTC, Tudor Hughes wrote:
A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. *In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. *The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. *That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I don't know about the whole world but, as far as the UK is concerned, most forecasts seem to predict a fall in gale frequencies until the 2080s when a marked increase in Summer gales is predicted. Certainly this is the case with UKCIP predictions. Presumably the reduction in winter gales is down to the reduction in the temperature gradient, but I've not read enough to be sure.

This link may workhttp://books.google.co.uk/books?id=31Xf3EVPGwwC&pg=PA429&lpg=PA429&dq...If it does see Table 19.5

Certainly the reduction in gale frequencies from Shetland to west Ireland to Cornwall has been marked over the last couple of decades.

Lambs 'The English Climate shws Penzance as having around 20 gales per annum.
Average Number of gales in Pz 1991-2000 13.5
Average Number of gales in Pz 2001-2012 6.1

Graham
Penzance

Thanks, Graham; another interesting read (the whole chapter).
The period 1986-1993 was certainly stormy in the UK but it all seems
to have gone a bit quiet since then.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
...

A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

There was a RMetS meeting last Wednesday where the evidence from earlier
warm periods in the Earth's history were compared with the results of model
simulations. The models seem to be unable to replicate the polar
amplification of temperature found in the temperature proxies. So I would
not trust the models in getting the changes in the wind correct. The
abstracts
of the talks are available he
http://www.rmets.org/events/lessons-...-palaeo-record

In the geological past, the Arctic region was sub tropical with crocodiles
swimming around Elsmere Island. So the temperature contast between the poles
and the topics was much less. Howver there would have been more likelyhood
of hurricanes.

Cheers, Alastair.

On Saturday, 16 February 2013 18:15:32 UTC, Alastair wrote:
"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message

...



A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a

warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am

not convinced that this is necessarily so. In fact, I can think of

good reasons why the opposite might be true. The temperature gradient

between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming

in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation

and probably increase blocking. That, of course is hardly the last

word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of

what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?



Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.



There was a RMetS meeting last Wednesday where the evidence from earlier

warm periods in the Earth's history were compared with the results of model

simulations. The models seem to be unable to replicate the polar

amplification of temperature found in the temperature proxies. So I would

not trust the models in getting the changes in the wind correct. The

abstracts

of the talks are available he

http://www.rmets.org/events/lessons-...-palaeo-record



In the geological past, the Arctic region was sub tropical with crocodiles

swimming around Elsmere Island. So the temperature contast between the poles

and the topics was much less. Howver there would have been more likelyhood

of hurricanes.



Cheers, Alastair.

Well Alastair those Crocodiles are notoriously wasteful with carbon fuels.

Tudor Hughes wrote:


A friend of mine (not a weather nut) takes it as axiomatic that a
warmer world would be a windier one (including the UK) whereas I am
not convinced that this is necessarily so. In fact, I can think of
good reasons why the opposite might be true. The temperature gradient
between pole and equator is less due to the disproportionate warming
in high latitudes and this will reduce the vigour of the circulation
and probably increase blocking. That, of course is hardly the last
word on the subject so does anyone here have any special knowledge of
what climate models predict or can point me to some literature?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I don't know weather, but I offer Neptune for your consideration:
According to Wikipedia (which lies)...
Mean temperature at 1 bar: 72 K
Peak wind speed : 1,300 mph