North Atlantic sea-temperature anomalies show a large cold pool SE
of Newfoundland. For the next few months this would seem to point to the
jet stream being further south than normal and also would back a
negative AO. Putting detail on this for the UK is a bit of a mug's game
but . . .

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=1&theater

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks.
Free office softwa http://www.libreoffice.org/
Carlos Seixas, Sonata nº 1 - best version of this I've found:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXox7vonfEg

Graham P Davis wrote:
North Atlantic sea-temperature anomalies show a large cold pool SE
of Newfoundland. For the next few months this would seem to point to the
jet stream being further south than normal and also would back a
negative AO. Putting detail on this for the UK is a bit of a mug's game
but . . .

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=1&theater

Just showed this to my wife who said "so summer is cancelled"!!!!

El niño forecast is broadly negative - I know this has little to do with UK but there must surely be some correlation with long wave global patterns etc. On closer investigation of the figures two singularities emerge - 1962 and 1981 - both summers were poor overall but not without decent warm intervals - August 1981 was very pleasant at times, at least in the SE. So perhaps we're in for a yo-yo summer?

On Friday, April 26, 2013 1:24:35 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:

El niño forecast is broadly negative - I know this has little to do with UK but there must surely be some correlation with long wave global patterns etc. On closer investigation of the figures two singularities emerge - 1962 and 1981 - both summers were poor overall but not without decent warm intervals - August 1981 was very pleasant at times, at least in the SE. So perhaps we're in for a yo-yo summer?

We've actually got ENSO neutral conditions Scott and the forecast from NOAA is trending slightly positive over the Boreal summer and for the rest of this year, though ENSO is slightly negative now:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Aussie BOM says the same:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Apologies - I meant neutral not negative

On Friday, April 26, 2013 12:27:56 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
North Atlantic sea-temperature anomalies show a large cold pool SE

of Newfoundland. For the next few months this would seem to point to the

jet stream being further south than normal and also would back a

negative AO. Putting detail on this for the UK is a bit of a mug's game

but . . .



http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=1&theater



--

Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks.

Free office softwa http://www.libreoffice.org/

Carlos Seixas, Sonata nº 1 - best version of this I've found:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXox7vonfEg

I'm always interested in your use of Atlantic SSTs for longer range prediction of UK seasonal weather. Have you kept records of your observations prior to seasons your prediction and its accuracy?

On Friday, April 26, 2013 12:27:56 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
North Atlantic sea-temperature anomalies show a large cold pool SE

of Newfoundland. For the next few months this would seem to point to the

jet stream being further south than normal and also would back a

negative AO. Putting detail on this for the UK is a bit of a mug's game

but . . .



http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=1&theater



--

Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks.

Free office softwa http://www.libreoffice.org/

Carlos Seixas, Sonata nº 1 - best version of this I've found:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXox7vonfEg

You might be interested in this, but the warmth here appears to be restricted to the continental shelf:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0426115614.htm