The first one of the winter. There's half a chance that this situation at 10 days could just develop into an easterly, or south easterly. and pull in some cold continental air. No certainties at all around this, but I'm watching it closely. See how things are tomorrow evening. It certainly looks like the zonal train will pull into a station. Whether it will fire up again and head on down the track, really isn't clear.

On Tue, 7 Jan 2014 12:30:22 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

The first one of the winter. There's half a chance that this situation at 10 days could just develop into an easterly, or south easterly. and pull in some cold continental air. No certainties at all around this, but I'm watching it closely. See how things are tomorrow evening. It certainly looks like the zonal train will pull into a station. Whether it will fire up again and head on down the track, really isn't clear.

Good and thanks for posting this. A frowing consensus of change is in
the air.
We did not get a drop here in Hilton from the thing that run along the
south coast last night.
Cheers Robin,Hilton

On 08/01/2014 07:02, Robin Nicholson wrote:
On Tue, 7 Jan 2014 12:30:22 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

The first one of the winter. There's half a chance that this situation at 10 days could just develop into an easterly, or south easterly. and pull in some cold continental air. No certainties at all around this, but I'm watching it closely. See how things are tomorrow evening. It certainly looks like the zonal train will pull into a station. Whether it will fire up again and head on down the track, really isn't clear.

Good and thanks for posting this. A frowing consensus of change is in
the air.
We did not get a drop here in Hilton from the thing that run along the
south coast last night.

You make it sound like a demented jogger.


--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 7:02:17 AM UTC, Robin Nicholson wrote:
On Tue, 7 Jan 2014 12:30:22 -0800 (PST), Dawlish

wrote:



The first one of the winter. There's half a chance that this situation at 10 days could just develop into an easterly, or south easterly. and pull in some cold continental air. No certainties at all around this, but I'm watching it closely. See how things are tomorrow evening. It certainly looks like the zonal train will pull into a station. Whether it will fire up again and head on down the track, really isn't clear.



Good and thanks for posting this. A frowing consensus of change is in

the air.

We did not get a drop here in Hilton from the thing that run along the

south coast last night.

Cheers Robin,Hilton

Models firming up on an easterly developing in a week's time. There's agreement, I'm waiting for consistency to forecast. Funny how the model development of these things can come closer to the present time, at a faster rate than the movement on of each model run. 24 hours ago, this easterly was not showing as clearly at 10+ days time and now it is suddenly there at 6/7 days.

I imagine the coldies on the forums will be beside themselves with excitement.

On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 9:20:23 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 7:02:17 AM UTC, Robin Nicholson wrote:

On Tue, 7 Jan 2014 12:30:22 -0800 (PST), Dawlish

wrote:

The first one of the winter. There's half a chance that this situation at 10 days could just develop into an easterly, or south easterly. and pull in some cold continental air. No certainties at all around this, but I'm watching it closely. See how things are tomorrow evening. It certainly looks like the zonal train will pull into a station. Whether it will fire up again and head on down the track, really isn't clear.
Good and thanks for posting this. A frowing consensus of change is in

the air.

We did not get a drop here in Hilton from the thing that run along the

south coast last night.

Cheers Robin,Hilton

Models firming up on an easterly developing in a week's time. There's agreement, I'm waiting for consistency to forecast. Funny how the model development of these things can come closer to the present time, at a faster rate than the movement on of each model run. 24 hours ago, this easterly was not showing as clearly at 10+ days time and now it is suddenly there at 6/7 days.

I imagine the coldies on the forums will be beside themselves with excitement.

As an extra: the MetO have not picking up on this in their 6-15 day précis, though to be fair, this was last updated yesterday morning. It shows how quickly the models can change. Why the MetO doesn't update this more frequently has always been a mystery to me. If the 06z gfs shows the same as the 00z and the MetO's longer range model (to which they deem the hoi polloi worth of access) shows similar to the ECM and gfs (and others) I would expect this forecast from yesterday to change later this morning:

"UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 21 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. At first, the strongest winds and heaviest rain are most likely in the west of the UK, whilst the south and east will hang on to the driest weather. Temperatures are likely to be colder than recently in most areas with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Thereafter, more changeable conditions are likely in the north and west of the UK with the best of the drier weather in the south and east. It will be rather cold in the north with an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures further south.

Updated: 1129 on Tue 7 Jan 2014"

See how things develop today.

In article ,
Dawlish writes:
As an extra: the MetO have not picking up on this in their 6-15 day
précis, though to be fair, this was last updated yesterday morning.
It shows how quickly the models can change. Why the MetO
doesn't update this more frequently has always been a mystery to
me.

Presumably they don't see any need to update a forecast of something
that's at least 6 days away any more frequently than once a day. The
longer the range of a forecast, the less frequently it needs to be
updated, but of course it's open to debate where the line should be
drawn.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article ,
Dawlish writes:
As an extra: the MetO have not picking up on this in their 6-15 day
précis, though to be fair, this was last updated yesterday morning.
It shows how quickly the models can change. Why the MetO
doesn't update this more frequently has always been a mystery to
me.

Presumably they don't see any need to update a forecast of something
that's at least 6 days away any more frequently than once a day. The
longer the range of a forecast, the less frequently it needs to be
updated, but of course it's open to debate where the line should be
drawn.

Having just looked at the UKMO site, I was surprised to see that the
6-15 day forecast was updated at 4am today rather than at 11am-noon,
which I thought was the time of day that it was normally updated. That
means that it will have been produced without benefit of the 0Z model
output. I can understand the forecast only being updated once a day -
after all they don't have unlimited resources. but one would think that,
to tie in with the latest model runs, around either midnight or noon
would be the natural time to do it - probably noon, as if it was at
midnight most people wouldn't see it for at least another eight hours.
Since the 0Z model output becomes available between about 04:30 (GFS)
and 08:30 (ECMWF) - with the UKMO's own model output somewhere in
between those times - that would allow three hours or so for thorough
analysis of all the operational runs and the ensembles before
formulating the forecast.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 9:20:23 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 7:02:17 AM UTC, Robin Nicholson wrote:

On Tue, 7 Jan 2014 12:30:22 -0800 (PST), Dawlish

wrote:

The first one of the winter. There's half a chance that this situation at 10 days could just develop into an easterly, or south easterly. and pull in some cold continental air. No certainties at all around this, but I'm watching it closely. See how things are tomorrow evening. It certainly looks like the zonal train will pull into a station. Whether it will fire up again and head on down the track, really isn't clear.
Good and thanks for posting this. A frowing consensus of change is in

the air.

We did not get a drop here in Hilton from the thing that run along the

south coast last night.

Cheers Robin,Hilton

Models firming up on an easterly developing in a week's time. There's agreement, I'm waiting for consistency to forecast. Funny how the model development of these things can come closer to the present time, at a faster rate than the movement on of each model run. 24 hours ago, this easterly was not showing as clearly at 10+ days time and now it is suddenly there at 6/7 days.

I imagine the coldies on the forums will be beside themselves with excitement.

As an extra: the MetO have not picking up on this in their 6-15 day précis, though to be fair, this was last updated yesterday morning. It shows how quickly the models can change. Why the MetO doesn't update this more frequently has always been a mystery to me. If the 06z gfs shows the same as the 00z and the MetO's longer range model (to which they deem the hoi polloi worth of access) shows similar to the ECM and gfs (and others) I would expect this forecast from yesterday to change later this morning:

"UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 21 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. At first, the strongest winds and heaviest rain are most likely in the west of the UK, whilst the south and east will hang on to the driest weather. Temperatures are likely to be colder than recently in most areas with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Thereafter, more changeable conditions are likely in the north and west of the UK with the best of the drier weather in the south and east. It will be rather cold in the north with an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures further south.

Updated: 1129 on Tue 7 Jan 2014"

See how things develop today.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking forward to your T240 forecast on this one when and if the models
show your pre-requisite consistency.

In article ,
John Hall writes:
Having just looked at the UKMO site, I was surprised to see that the
6-15 day forecast was updated at 4am today rather than at 11am-
noon, which I thought was the time of day that it was normally
updated.

The time on it has now been updated again to 4pm, but as far as I can
see it's still the same old forecast, which is now looking very out of
date. Maybe they require a certain number of successive forecasts to
show a change before adopting it, but don't publicly acknowledge that?
They might fear that otherwise there would be constant flip-flops when,
as happens quite often, the models can;t make their minds up for the
roughly 8-10 day period.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 7:26:08 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

John Hall writes:

Having just looked at the UKMO site, I was surprised to see that the

6-15 day forecast was updated at 4am today rather than at 11am-

noon, which I thought was the time of day that it was normally

updated.



The time on it has now been updated again to 4pm, but as far as I can

see it's still the same old forecast, which is now looking very out of

date. Maybe they require a certain number of successive forecasts to

show a change before adopting it, but don't publicly acknowledge that?

They might fear that otherwise there would be constant flip-flops when,

as happens quite often, the models can;t make their minds up for the

roughly 8-10 day period.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

"UK Outlook for Monday 13 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 22 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as those of recent weeks. At first, the strongest winds and heaviest rain are most likely in the west of the UK, then perhaps in the south and southwest, whilst the east will hang on to the driest weather. It will become colder, especially in the north where there is an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures at times in the south, and an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Later in the month changeable conditions are likely to continue, especially in the northwest, with the best of the drier weather in the east..

Updated: 1156 on Wed 8 Jan 2014"

Seems very out of step and certainly not what I think - but what do I know? *))