Right out to towards T+240, by the looks of it. Zonal weather all the way until 9/10 days where the ECM and gfs operationals both suggest Atlantic blocking. Wet, with spells of windy weather, well into the last week of January, very probably.

Well; at least it's mild. *))

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 09:21:32 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Right out to towards T+240, by the looks of it. Zonal weather all the way until 9/10 days where the ECM and gfs operationals both suggest Atlantic blocking. Wet, with spells of windy weather, well into the last week of January, very probably.



Well; at least it's mild. *))

Is that a forecast?

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 22:50:01 UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
On Saturday, 18 January 2014 09:21:32 UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Right out to towards T+240, by the looks of it. Zonal weather all the way until 9/10 days where the ECM and gfs operationals both suggest Atlantic blocking. Wet, with spells of windy weather, well into the last week of January, very probably.







Well; at least it's mild. *))



Is that a forecast?

Unbelievable but the Dawlish Dangler had us all down at this point in time for severe cold based on his ever so fantastic forecast

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 09:21:32 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Right out to towards T+240, by the looks of it. Zonal weather all the way until 9/10 days where the ECM and gfs operationals both suggest Atlantic blocking. Wet, with spells of windy weather, well into the last week of January, very probably.



Well; at least it's mild. *))

Okay you pompous prat: does that mean you are going with that forecast? Actually what am I saying, this is now your test

On Saturday, January 18, 2014 10:50:01 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
On Saturday, 18 January 2014 09:21:32 UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Right out to towards T+240, by the looks of it. Zonal weather all the way until 9/10 days where the ECM and gfs operationals both suggest Atlantic blocking. Wet, with spells of windy weather, well into the last week of January, very probably.







Well; at least it's mild. *))



Is that a forecast?

*)) It is commentary, as you should well know. Best to ignore larry.

This morning, there's not even the hints that the zonal weather may run out of steam at T+240. More likely that it will persist to 10 days. See if there is agreement for that this evening.

On Sunday, January 19, 2014 9:28:52 AM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
*)) It is commentary, as you should well know. Best to ignore larry.







This morning, there's not even the hints that the zonal weather may run out of steam at T+240. More likely that it will persist to 10 days. See if there is agreement for that this evening.



No, you're confusing me..........

That is clearly not difficult.

The 06z maintains the zonal theme and my confidence that this zonal weather will persist to the last few days of January is rising.

The 06z maintains the zonal theme and my confidence that this zonal weather will persist to the last few days of January is rising.

That is an absolutely staggering observation. Tell me, how do you reach such a conclusion?
And how can you fail to issue a forecast with such high confidence? Is it because there's a chance that it may not happen? Is it because you're afraid that your 80% record is could be under threat?
Or is is because you really don't have a clue and are reliant on others and don't have enough expertise or confidence in your own ability?

On Sun, 19 Jan 2014 04:03:49 -0800 (PST)
David Mitchell wrote:

The 06z maintains the zonal theme and my confidence that this zonal
weather will persist to the last few days of January is rising.

That is an absolutely staggering observation.

Excuse me for butting into your friendly little conversation but I'd
like to point out that zonality is also favoured by the SST pattern
in the western N Atlantic, as it has been for most of the winter. This
doesn't guarantee that the atmosphere will continue with a zonal
pattern but it does tilt the odds in favour of that happening. It may
also explain why the models' forecasts of blocking patterns developing
have so far come to naught.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Mail: 'newsman' not 'newsboy'.
The pen is mightier than the sword, and considerably easier to write
with. - MARTY FELDMAN

On Sunday, January 19, 2014 12:03:49 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
The 06z maintains the zonal theme and my confidence that this zonal weather will persist to the last few days of January is rising.



That is an absolutely staggering observation.

Thank you.

On Sunday, January 19, 2014 12:24:10 PM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Sun, 19 Jan 2014 04:03:49 -0800 (PST)

David Mitchell wrote:



The 06z maintains the zonal theme and my confidence that this zonal

weather will persist to the last few days of January is rising.



That is an absolutely staggering observation.



Excuse me for butting into your friendly little conversation but I'd

like to point out that zonality is also favoured by the SST pattern

in the western N Atlantic, as it has been for most of the winter. This

doesn't guarantee that the atmosphere will continue with a zonal

pattern but it does tilt the odds in favour of that happening. It may

also explain why the models' forecasts of blocking patterns developing

have so far come to naught.

Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Mail: 'newsman' not 'newsboy'.

The pen is mightier than the sword, and considerably easier to write

with. - MARTY FELDMAN

Your butt is welcome, so as to speak.

True and I always take notice of your SST/UK weather links and hypotheses. It's interesting and I'd like to see more research in the area - as I'm looking forward to Lockwood's next piece of research on solar/stratosphere influences. Of all the areas which may explain (and be able to forecast) our medium-term weather, these two perhaps may prove to be the strongest influences.