The HadCRUT series of world temperatures show that average world temperature
stopped rising around 2000, and if anything has been slowly falling since.
The question is not so much where the heat energy has gone (it has evidently
gone into beefing up the atmospheric circulation, both horizontal and
vertical) as why temperatures stopped rising when they did. What happened
around 2000 to cause that change?

Ian Bingham,
Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire.

On 14/02/2014 07:25, Ian Bingham wrote:
The HadCRUT series of world temperatures show that average world
temperature stopped rising around 2000, and if anything has been slowly
falling since. The question is not so much where the heat energy has
gone (it has evidently gone into beefing up the atmospheric circulation,
both horizontal and vertical) as why temperatures stopped rising when
they did. What happened around 2000 to cause that change?

Ian Bingham,
Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire.

People stopped fretting about the millenium bug that was going to bring
the modern computer world to its end

"Ian Bingham" wrote in message
...

The question is not so much where the heat energy has gone (it has evidently
gone into beefing up the atmospheric circulation, both horizontal and
vertical) ....

=============

Actually, the excess heat appears to be being captured in the deep ocean.
See eg:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/surf...land-2014.html

On 14/02/2014 07:25, Ian Bingham wrote:
The HadCRUT series of world temperatures show that average world
temperature stopped rising around 2000, and if anything has been slowly
falling since. The question is not so much where the heat energy has
gone (it has evidently gone into beefing up the atmospheric circulation,
both horizontal and vertical) as why temperatures stopped rising when
they did. What happened around 2000 to cause that change?

Ian Bingham,
Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire.

I subscribe the Keeling tides hypothesis although I think they failed in
their paper to identity rather strong tidal forcing components at 54.1y
(3x Saros) and 58y (2x Inex) that happened to pretty much cancel out in
the latter part of the twentieth century leading to much less deep
oceanic mixing and amplifying the effects of atmospheric warming.

http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321.abstract

If this is correct then the cycle will switch back fairly soon.

You can see the previous bump around 1940 on the HADCRUT graph.

If you look at the historic but noisy PDO graph there is a fair amount
of ~60y component in it, but it is very noisy and the individual years
vary a lot (as does the number of eclipses you get in the year and the
geometrical tidal forcing component).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PDO1000yr.svg

In the last hundred years or so it actually looks quite sinusoidal.

I suspect most of the "missing" heat energy has gone into the ocean and
now is driving the faster evaporation, jet stream and wetter winters.


--
Regards,
Martin Brown

"General" wrote in message ...

"Ian Bingham" wrote in message
...

The question is not so much where the heat energy has gone (it has evidently
gone into beefing up the atmospheric circulation, both horizontal and
vertical) ....

=============

Actually, the excess heat appears to be being captured in the deep ocean.
See eg:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/surf...land-2014.html

========================

Yes, no doubt that's happening as well and due to the interaction between
sea surface and atmosphere, the two processes go hand-in-hand. The article
you cite mentions "the dramatic increase in the strength of the equatorial
trade-winds" (invigorated circulation). This, as the article says, entrains
heat into the upper layers of the oceans; this heat is eventually given back
to the atmosphere, and further invigorates the global circulation. At
least, that's what I think; this is a subject on which you can never be
dogmatic.

Ian.

On Fri, 14 Feb 2014 07:25:32 -0000
"Ian Bingham" wrote:

The HadCRUT series of world temperatures show that average world
temperature stopped rising around 2000, and if anything has been
slowly falling since. The question is not so much where the heat
energy has gone (it has evidently gone into beefing up the
atmospheric circulation, both horizontal and vertical) as why
temperatures stopped rising when they did. What happened around 2000
to cause that change?

The global temperature has continued to rise since 2000, albeit more
slowly than before. I take 11-yr means in order to rule out any
possible problems through the solar cycle - even though that actually
seems to make little if no difference - and that shows a 0.08C rise
from 2000 to the last available year, 2008. If I was to pick a year
since when global temperatures have flatlined, I'd go for 2005.

I've pointed out before that the slowdown coincides with a negative
period in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index. Again using 11-yr
rolling means, the PDO index peaked in 1983 and has been negative since
2003. However, as we shall see, this negative period isn't all it's
cracked up to be.

One should be aware of the fact that the calculation of the index takes
into account rising global sea temperatures in order to make the PDO
more easily identifiable. Because of this, the negative period early in
C20 is 8 years in length but when the corrections are removed it
becomes more than 21 years long. The current negative period in the
index looks to be of similar length and almost 0.2C lower but the
recalculation shows no negativity at all and the value is more than
0.5C higher than the earlier period.

This probably explains why the people who predicted a negative PDO
would drag global air temperatures back to normal got it wrong.
However, to be fair, they did predict it would have an effect on
temperatures which is more than most climate scientists seem to have
managed.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Mail: 'newsman' not 'newsboy'.
"Welcome to the year of the whores. People around the globe celebrate."
- BBC News subtitle

"Ian Bingham" wrote in message
...
The HadCRUT series of world temperatures show that average world
temperature stopped rising around 2000, and if anything has been slowly
falling since. The question is not so much where the heat energy has gone
(it has evidently gone into beefing up the atmospheric circulation, both
horizontal and vertical) as why temperatures stopped rising when they did.
What happened around 2000 to cause that change?

Ian Bingham,
Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire.

What happened around 2000 was a very strong El Nino in 1998. This raised
global temperatures to a level only rarely exceeded since. Ignoring the
exceptional 1998 value, temperatures rose from -0.1 in 1975 up to +0.5 in
2005, at a steady rate of 0.2 K per decade. Temperatures have failed to
rise in the following decade ending now. This anomally is know as the
"hiatus" and is currently unexplained. See:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/documents/4...=1363599322327

There was a previous hiatus from 1945 to 1975, which is believed to have
been caused by the aerosols (soot?) from coal fired power stations, ended
when Clean Air Acts were introduced throughout the Western World. It is
claimed that the Asian Brown cloud has not increased the quantity of black
carbon in the atmsophere, but perhaps these hiati are due to SO2 in the
stratosphere from the combustion of sulphourous coals rather than soot in
the troposphere.

Alternatively, if you consider the hiatus as starting around 2005, then the
exceptional summer melt of Arctic sea ice occured then. The summer melts
have remained at around that level since then, so that area of summer sea
ice may have been a tipping point, where the amount of annual melting ice is
enough to keep the ocean surface cooler. (Ths is a bit speculative.)

Plenty of other causes for the hiatus are proposed, some of which have been
expounded here by regulars. The Met Office's answer is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...al_warming.PDF

Cheers, Alastair.

In article ,
says...

The HadCRUT series of world temperatures show that average world temperature
stopped rising around 2000, and if anything has been slowly falling since.


Sunset. It gets cooler when it's dark.

--
Alan LeHun
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