An unusually precise forecast from Weather Action:

"What will happen to that DEEP LOW 15th (currently similar to 12th on Forecast maps)?

WeatherAction Answer.
It will NOT be as severe as MO say. The Central pressure 960 mb at 00z 15th over Eire/Irish sea will be higher, and the centre will not have advanced so fast. The system will fill somewaht (sic) as it proceeds from now (13th 11z). The reason? We are now moving from an R5 into an an R3 period and Standard Met cannot well forecast out of an R5."

Normally the wording is so fuzzy as to enable claims of accuracy regardless of the actual outcome, so it will be interesting to see what the Central (sic) pressure is at midnight.
BTW - Anybody with a legal background able to tell me whether calling somebody a charlatan (as Byron Spicer does with Dame Slingo) is libellous?

Thanks

Jim

wrote in message
...
"What will happen to that DEEP LOW 15th (currently similar to 12th on
Forecast maps)?

WeatherAction Answer.
It will NOT be as severe as MO say. The Central pressure 960 mb at 00z
15th over Eire/Irish sea will be higher, and the centre will not have
advanced so fast. The system will fill somewaht (sic) as it proceeds from
now (13th 11z). The reason? We are now moving from an R5 into an an R3
period and Standard Met cannot well forecast out of an R5."

958mb Shannon airport @18.00
959mb Dublin airport

For what it's worth..............

Joe

In article ,
writes:
An unusually precise forecast from Weather Action:

"What will happen to that DEEP LOW 15th (currently similar to 12th
on Forecast maps)?

WeatherAction Answer.
It will NOT be as severe as MO say. The Central pressure 960 mb
at 00z 15th over Eire/Irish sea will be higher, and the centre will
not have advanced so fast. The system will fill somewaht (sic) as it
proceeds from now (13th 11z). The reason? We are now moving
from an R5 into an an R3 period and Standard Met cannot well
forecast out of an R5."

Normally the wording is so fuzzy as to enable claims of accuracy
regardless of the actual outcome, so it will be interesting to see
what the Central (sic) pressure is at midnight.
snip

Well already at noon today (14th) the central pressure seems to have
fallen below 960, judging by the data that the 12Z GFS run was
initialised with as shown in its "00" chart. And the centre already was
only about 100 miles off the SW coast of Ireland. By midnight tonight
it's still forecast to be under 960mb centred in the northern Irish Sea.
So at the moment it looks like the MO forecast on the 13th that Weather
Action were referring to will be spot on.

Anybody know what, if anything, R3 and R5 mean?
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

Think this one has been an Rsole event

On 14/02/2014 19:21, wrote:
An unusually precise forecast from Weather Action:

"What will happen to that DEEP LOW 15th (currently similar to 12th on
Forecast maps)?

WeatherAction Answer. It will NOT be as severe as MO say. The Central
pressure 960 mb at 00z 15th over Eire/Irish sea will be higher, and
the centre will not have advanced so fast. The system will fill
somewaht (sic) as it proceeds from now (13th 11z). The reason? We are
now moving from an R5 into an an R3 period and Standard Met cannot
well forecast out of an R5."

What are R5 & R3 periods, anyway?


--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Saturday, February 15, 2014 7:46:06 AM UTC, vidcapper wrote:
On 14/02/2014 19:21, wrote:

An unusually precise forecast from Weather Action:



"What will happen to that DEEP LOW 15th (currently similar to 12th on

Forecast maps)?



WeatherAction Answer. It will NOT be as severe as MO say. The Central

pressure 960 mb at 00z 15th over Eire/Irish sea will be higher, and

the centre will not have advanced so fast. The system will fill

somewaht (sic) as it proceeds from now (13th 11z). The reason? We are

now moving from an R5 into an an R3 period and Standard Met cannot

well forecast out of an R5."



What are R5 & R3 periods, anyway?





--



Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Would anyone care?

On Saturday, 15 February 2014 08:27:09 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, February 15, 2014 7:46:06 AM UTC, vidcapper wrote:

On 14/02/2014 19:21, wrote:



An unusually precise forecast from Weather Action:







"What will happen to that DEEP LOW 15th (currently similar to 12th on



Forecast maps)?







WeatherAction Answer. It will NOT be as severe as MO say. The Central



pressure 960 mb at 00z 15th over Eire/Irish sea will be higher, and



the centre will not have advanced so fast. The system will fill



somewaht (sic) as it proceeds from now (13th 11z). The reason? We are



now moving from an R5 into an an R3 period and Standard Met cannot



well forecast out of an R5."







What are R5 & R3 periods, anyway?











--







Paul Hyett, Cheltenham



Would anyone care?

No because they all rely on your fantastically accurate LRF; which I believe is now out to two days.

On 14/02/2014 20:14, John Hall wrote:

Anybody know what, if anything, R3 and R5 mean?

Red warning - related to predicted Volcano & Earthquake activity.
R1 is low, R5 is maximum. Possibly developed by Piers.

http://climaterealists.com/?id=8950

--

Brian W Lawrence
Wantage
Oxfordshire

On 15/02/2014 16:27, Brian Lawrence wrote:
On 14/02/2014 20:14, John Hall wrote:

Anybody know what, if anything, R3 and R5 mean?

Red warning - related to predicted Volcano & Earthquake activity.
R1 is low, R5 is maximum.

Thanks.

There's no denying that volcanoes can affect the weather, either locally
or globally, but there seems no obvious reason why earthquakes would?


--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

In article ,
Brian Lawrence writes:
On 14/02/2014 20:14, John Hall wrote:

Anybody know what, if anything, R3 and R5 mean?

Red warning - related to predicted Volcano & Earthquake activity.
R1 is low, R5 is maximum.

Thanks.

Possibly developed by Piers.

Sounds like he and Weatherlawyer might be on the same wavelength!

snip link
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"