Damp start to the day but only 3.0mm of rain overnight.

3.2mm at Shoeburyness.
03693 17465 /2014 10169 20162 39998 40000 57013 60032 762// 333 20166
3/016 70032 84/10 85/17 86/56=

Doesn't seem to be much in the way of decent showers forecast either and
model watching keeps high pressure in control for the forseeable future,
even though NW'lys maybe the main wind direction.

I still think July/August are going to be above average temperatures and
hot at times though...

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

On 05/07/2014 10:14, Keith (Southend) wrote:
Damp start to the day but only 3.0mm of rain overnight.

3.2mm at Shoeburyness.
03693 17465 /2014 10169 20162 39998 40000 57013 60032 762// 333 20166
3/016 70032 84/10 85/17 86/56=

Doesn't seem to be much in the way of decent showers forecast either and
model watching keeps high pressure in control for the forseeable future,
even though NW'lys maybe the main wind direction.

I still think July/August are going to be above average temperatures and
hot at times though...


Looking at my local Met Office forecast and I have heavy rain from 10pm
to midnight. Looks like a low on the front in the SE from the FAX charts.

http://www.westwind.ch/index.php?lin...,brack3,brack4

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

2.5mm here, Keith. Things are getting desperate. Tomato plants are starting to wilt in the strong sun unless they are watered twice a day. The ground is rock hard and is starting to crack in our local park. Just 18mm of rain since beginning of June...

On Saturday, July 5, 2014 10:14:52 AM UTC+1, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

model watching keeps high pressure in control for the forseeable future,

=======

I don't see that at all. Slack low pressure and above-average rainfall for a lot of places next 4-5 days.

Then ECMWF even puts a little low over the Low Countries second half of next week, although GFS does not.

Stephen.

On 05/07/2014 16:59, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Saturday, July 5, 2014 10:14:52 AM UTC+1, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

model watching keeps high pressure in control for the forseeable future,

=======

I don't see that at all. Slack low pressure and above-average rainfall for a lot of places next 4-5 days.

Then ECMWF even puts a little low over the Low Countries second half of next week, although GFS does not.

Stephen.


Ah that was this morning :-)

Seesawing everyday between two scenarios.

1. High pressure ridging from the Azores.
2. Low pressure coming down from the NW.

I can only conclude we will get something in the middle...

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

On 05/07/2014 15:31, Keith (Southend) wrote:
On 05/07/2014 10:14, Keith (Southend) wrote:
Damp start to the day but only 3.0mm of rain overnight.

3.2mm at Shoeburyness.
03693 17465 /2014 10169 20162 39998 40000 57013 60032 762// 333 20166
3/016 70032 84/10 85/17 86/56=

Doesn't seem to be much in the way of decent showers forecast either and
model watching keeps high pressure in control for the forseeable future,
even though NW'lys maybe the main wind direction.

I still think July/August are going to be above average temperatures and
hot at times though...


Looking at my local Met Office forecast and I have heavy rain from 10pm
to midnight. Looks like a low on the front in the SE from the FAX charts.

http://www.westwind.ch/index.php?lin...,brack3,brack4



Watching this very closely...

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe.html

I imagine the heavy rain now forecast for this area from 21:00 to
midnight is based on the line of frontal rain running through the
Channel Islands, atm, it still looks to me to me clipping Kent but not
getting further north. Here's to hoping we get it :-)

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

On Saturday, July 5, 2014 5:36:53 PM UTC+1, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

Ah that was this morning :-)



Seesawing everyday between two scenarios.


====

I have to disagree, sorry. ECMWF hasn't had another run since this morning And it has been broadly consistent during the past few days for the first half of the coming week.

Certainly from midweek onwards, though, there has been inconsistency from run to run and across models regarding how quickly the Azores High will ridge ENE'wards. That's been plaguing my medium-range forecasts since the start of the week and beyond - but the troughing across the UK for the start of next week has been pretty well signalled by the ensembles for that long, so that's always had reasonable confidence.

Just how much rain manifests in any one particular spot, though, is another matter, of course.

Stephen.

On 05/07/2014 16:19, Scott W wrote:
2.5mm here, Keith. Things are getting desperate. Tomato plants are starting to wilt in the strong sun unless they are watered twice a day. The ground is rock hard and is starting to crack in our local park. Just 18mm of rain since beginning of June...


Who would have thought back in February we would be saying things like this?

It would be amazing if we now had one of the driest summers on record.

On 05/07/2014 18:01, Keith (Southend) wrote:

Looking at my local Met Office forecast and I have heavy rain from 10pm
to midnight. Looks like a low on the front in the SE from the FAX charts.

http://www.westwind.ch/index.php?lin...,brack3,brack4




Watching this very closely...

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe.html

I imagine the heavy rain now forecast for this area from 21:00 to
midnight is based on the line of frontal rain running through the
Channel Islands, atm, it still looks to me to me clipping Kent but not
getting further north. Here's to hoping we get it :-)


Updated now:
Showers 21:00
Heavy rain 22:00 through to 02:00 Sunday and some rain until 04:00

We'll see?
--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

Keith (Southend) wrote:
On 05/07/2014 18:01, Keith (Southend) wrote:

Looking at my local Met Office forecast and I have heavy rain from 10pm
to midnight. Looks like a low on the front in the SE from the FAX
charts.

http://www.westwind.ch/index.php?lin...,brack3,brack4





Watching this very closely...

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe.html

I imagine the heavy rain now forecast for this area from 21:00 to
midnight is based on the line of frontal rain running through the
Channel Islands, atm, it still looks to me to me clipping Kent but not
getting further north. Here's to hoping we get it :-)


Updated now:
Showers 21:00
Heavy rain 22:00 through to 02:00 Sunday and some rain until 04:00

We'll see?
----------------------------------------------------------
Looks like a glancing blow to me, for here anyway. You have a bit more
chance judging from the radar but I can't see it being that substantial.
We have had 6.4mm here today though.
Dave, S.Essex