Slated for t+ 84 according to the Meteorological&Climategate North Atlantic Forecast. That is probably because of tectonic activity in Kamchatka. However such a set-up looks suspiciously like the harmonic for tropical storms. Morevoer there appears to be a tongue of high available to pass between the Icelandic Low and that newcomer from the south.

That should be interesting.
The OPC loop shows the analysis from a better perspective:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/
The North Pacific loop for the last week was as clear as a bell. That appears to be falling over now that the tropical storms are in decline... (or do I mean building?)

The NA EFS gives warning of adjacent Cyclones and Anticyclone none of which are of any moment but as a graphic look like signals for large medium sized earthquakes. Low sixes I think and lots of Mag 5s.

This in keeping with the few severe events showing on BoM. The worst of it happening soon and then a massive influx from the South Pacific creating the largest system in Antarctica which should arrive by Friday at Antarctic's Watershed.

From then on it is tropical storms all the way. TBH I wouldn't be surprised to see Norbert and Fengshen rebuilding tonight. There is so much in the works I can't help thinking the MetO&CG is somewhat tardy.

On Tuesday, 9 September 2014 14:06:09 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

This in keeping with the few severe events showing on BoM. The worst of it happening soon and then a massive influx from the South Pacific creating the largest system in Antarctica which should arrive by Friday at Antarctic's Watershed.

From then on it is tropical storms all the way. TBH I wouldn't be surprised to see Norbert and Fengshen rebuilding tonight. There is so much in the works I can't help thinking the MetO&CG is somewhat tardy.

I was somewhat taken aback by the Hawaii output and they way it portrayed Fengshen:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/mo...imtype=fl ash

Admittedly Fengshen wasn't a bruiser but in the days of sail it would have been a welcome asset to any ship's captain. I imagine the problem lies in the Aleutians and the way that storms behave in that neck of the woods.

The set up Fengshen was to join is a Low of some 1004 millibars and it is centred to the west of the ocean, near the Russian side of it. From the above link, it looks as though the storm passes to the south of it before rounding the core and joining from the north or NNW (a rotation commonly seen in the Southern Ocean when seismic disturbance is not on the cards.)

It appears that the gyroscopic action of cyclones in the North Pacific require a boost of a complete storm system before they are large enough to crawl ashore. The overall pressure at the centre does not vary very much from 992 millibars during the whole process but the size of the system has to increase to fill the complete void.

The obvious conclusion is that an harmonic has to be obtained in the manner of an aeolian harp. I wonder what tones are set.

On Wednesday, 10 September 2014 10:03:29 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

The North Pacific loop for the last week was as clear as a bell. That appears to be falling over now that the tropical storms are in decline... (or do I mean building?)

TBH I wouldn't have been surprised to see Norbert and Fengshen rebuilding but that was not to be.

The obvious conclusion is that an harmonic has to be obtained in the manner of an aeolian harp. I wonder what tones are set. I have the time of the lunar phase (01:38) as a spell of Lows in the North Atlantic. Obviously they will be dominating the North Pacific too.

If they are literally whistling up a wind then you can see the full effect of the wind cycle is not a linear problem of the so called heat engine where warmth from the tropics is delivered to the cold of the poles but an heaven blessed rubric specifically designed to water the whole of the earth..

Looks like Norbert is back and carrying some hope for California with it too:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tra...c/201415E.html

Last locations of Norbert:
8 Sept 2014: 09:00 27.4 N. 118.3 W forecast for the 10th:
10 Sept 06:00 29.3N. 116.9 W.

Odile is (or was earlier today) 14.9 N. 102.9 W. Not the same storm, just part of the same complex.

Seeing as there is unusual snowfall reported elsewhe

Karymsky (Kamchatka): Intermittent strombolian to vulcanian explosions continue from the volcano and produce ash plumes that sometimes are spotted on satellite imagery.
A plume was reported this morning rising to 7,000 ft (2.1 km) altitude (Tokyo VAAC).

Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan): The explosive activity at the volcano has been elevated compared to most of the previous months. An average of 4-5 vulcanian explosions have been occurring daily. A strong eruption yesterday produced an ash plume that rose to 15,000 ft (4.5 km) altitude (VAAC Tokyo).

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volcanoes/today.html
And corresponding floods?

Pakistan, India floods 2014: Disastrous floods in Kashmir Valley kills 441
Floods and landslides in Pakistan, and the Indian-administered and Pakistan-administered parts of Kashmir have claimed lives of at least 441 people, authorities said Tuesday.

So far, 241 have died in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. At least 200 people have been killed in India, officials said.

http://www.disaster-report.com/

6 tornadoes so far all in Missouri something to do with the IR imagery showing significant ice-clouds over the Great Lakes?
It is difficult to differentiate between volcanic signals and tornadic ones so I am only suggesting there is little difference. It would be nice to know which was doing what on the MetO&Cg charts.

I'll leave it to whomsoever wishes to to suggest what the NA EFS is saying. I'll settle for large medium sized earthquakes. There is some interesting volcanic action on the cards but you'd expect that anyway with a lot of tropical storms.

The Hawaiian charts are looking a lot more sensible with the cyclone centre pressure more like those of the North Atlantic when a harmonic set up reaches across the wet divide. (Only a 984 mb but still it is getting there.)

Almost every chart on the Australian run is showing that we should be enjoying a lot of tropical storms at the moment. Apart from that deep dark system on the South West quadrant under the South Pacific that is (and even there it's indicating massive storms.)

Looking at the trail of precipitate from the Plate to that confluence it is an almost perfect horse-shoe. Then it blows up like a balloon on Friday and an anomaly creeps in.

After what has to be a serious eruption over the weekend, a polar High at 20 W. bleeds out at West Africa unsettling things for the 16th which -coincidentally, is the end of the spell.

What I love about this stuff is that there is always something to look forward to. Pity nobody listens.

It must be the way I tell them.

On Wed, 10 Sep 2014 22:37:16 +0100, Weatherlawyer
wrote:

On Wednesday, 10 September 2014 10:03:29 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

yerself again
[]
What I love about this stuff is that there is always something to look
forward to. Pity nobody listens.

It must be the way I tell them.

Maybe there's a clue there?

--
It's a money /life balance.

On Wednesday, 10 September 2014 22:38:56 UTC+1, Kerr Mudd-John wrote:
On Wed, 10 Sep 2014 22:37:16 +0100, Weatherlawyer

wrote:



On Wednesday, 10 September 2014 10:03:29 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:



yerself again

[]

What I love about this stuff is that there is always something to look

forward to. Pity nobody listens.



It must be the way I tell them.



Maybe there's a clue there?

So quick and so banal, so: dawlish.

On Wednesday, 10 September 2014 22:37:16 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

What I love about this stuff is that there is always something to look forward to.

Yeahah!
Now that is what I am talking about:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
And hat's what I call making a splash:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

I remember when Lows used to hang out between Iceland and Scotland. At least we have a decent High at the moment. 2 of them both with decent pressures too. Reminds me when you could forecast the regions of likely large magnitude earthquakes by the compression between Highs and Lows.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._pressure.html

Ah, the good old days. (But at least I have mocha now. Anyone seeking to improve on mere coffee, just add 1 part cocoa to 3 parts coffee powder.)

OK I have just been through the rest of the charts and it is more of the same. BoM's southern hemisphere always looks like it does when a set of volcanoes is about to blow but whoever is in charge of them has never realised it.

On 11/09/2014 18:17, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Is he paid to be ignorant or what?

If so, he should be demanding a pay rise.



--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Thursday, 11 September 2014 18:51:51 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:


Back soon with more of the same.

Large magnitude earthquakes due. This should be a weather changer:
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html 2014 09 13 Pressure at sea level.

On Friday, 12 September 2014 10:30:01 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Thursday, 11 September 2014 18:51:51 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:





Back soon with more of the same.



Large magnitude earthquakes due. This should be a weather changer:

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html 2014 09 13 Pressure at sea level.

Think I spoke too soon there.

There looks to be a Low off the page for the next days' run and possibly the day after too. (But the 15th is more definitely a signal for mag sixes.)

I should have checked out the other stuff and BoM is definitely signalling imminent VEI eruptions.

Ah well, maybe I should try getting regions of likelihood?
4 days to go, 2 or 3 if it strikes early. And no harm done except to my ego.

I can assure all concerned I will get over that.

On Friday, 12 September 2014 11:43:01 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Large magnitude earthquakes due. This should be a weather changer:

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html 2014 09 13 Pressure at sea level.

Think I spoke too soon there.
There looks to be a Low off the page for the next days' run and possibly the day after too. (But the 15th is more definitely a signal for mag sixes.)

I should have checked out the other stuff and BoM is definitely signalling imminent VEI eruptions.

16 September 2014 02:05 got to be a tornado spell, right?

So what happened to our tornado region over this spell?
Almost none. And volcanoes?
Everyone seems to have been overly concerned with things in Iceland to the point of nobody reporting this sort of stuff until today:

"Slamet (Central Java): Activity at the volcano has increased and VSI raised the alert level to "siaga", 3 on a scale of 1-4. The mild strombolian activity which had been going on for months at the volcano has become more and more intense since the beginning of September. Some explosions in the past days have been strong enough to eject incandescent material to all over the summit cone of the volcano.
In its latest report on 11 Sep, VSI mentions that 165 eruptions occurred on that day with ejection heights between 50-1500 m.
.... [read more]

Lokon-Empung (North Sulawesi, Indonesia): Small ash emissions along with white steam plumes have occurred again from the volcano recently. At the moment, there is no indications that they have been caused by new magma near the surface, and could be phreatic in nature, or due to disturbance of the hydrothermal system."

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volc...ea-Slamet.html

One interesting phenomenon that has to be explained is that the hurricane straddling the Baja peninsula is going nowhere fast. At a cat 4 then 3, it should be further west but no...

It is hanging on the ropes just like that thing in the North Atlantic. Finds things comfortable off Spain and that is all we know about it.

As a aside I think Odile is set to go ashore on northern California but the reason for me saying so comes from what I can't see much of on these two links:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/mo...&imgsize=Large
and
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/mo...imtype=f lash

So make of that what you will.

The NA EFS looks like signalling muchas volcanoes in the coming spell. But to be honest even there there isn't all that much difference in the timing of the next spell and this one:
Sep 9 01:38
Sep 16 02:05
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html
probably just enough but...

Anyway we have been a week without the wet weather Britain should have been enjoying. Good job I just specified lots of Lows isn't it. If I'd said where I would have lost most of my paying customers.

I rather believe that Edouard is going to Join forces with that cyclone off Spain but that isn't how things tend to get dealt with to dispose of a serious anticyclone and deal with the volcanoes due.

Beyond that I am not saying anything.
I don't have to, do I?