No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record
of accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in
essence admit this - guessing.

Many, many thank yous for your sincere replies though I detect
a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's reaction. May
I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.

I am sure he does, but however many hours he puts in and
however sincere in his beliefs, I will retain my cynicism
about anyone's long range forecasts.
Malcolm

Perhaps scepticism would be a more accurate term than cynicism?

Anne

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
General wrote:
"Bogdan Iqbal" wrote in message
...

On Monday, October 6, 2014 8:53:57 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of
accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence admit
this - guessing.

...though I detect a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's
reaction.
=======================================

It's not cynicism, more a statement of fact.

======================================
May I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.
======================================

Well, let's hope he enjoys it. But let's not pretend that it makes any
difference to the accuracy of the result.
-------------------------------------------------
........ and let's not discourage someone from making a thoughtful
weather based contribution to this Group. Especially as he himself says
it's not likely to be particularly accurate and is only for fun. The Met
Office don't add that rider to theirs and I doubt they are likely to be
any more accurate!


Well said Dave! Weather forecasting should be fun as well.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

In message , Dave Cornwell
writes
General wrote:
"Bogdan Iqbal" wrote in message
...
On Monday, October 6, 2014 8:53:57 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of
accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence
admit this - guessing.
...though I detect a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's
reaction.
=======================================
It's not cynicism, more a statement of fact.

======================================
May I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.
======================================
Well, let's hope he enjoys it. But let's not pretend that it makes
any difference to the accuracy of the result.
-------------------------------------------------
........ and let's not discourage someone from making a thoughtful
weather based contribution to this Group. Especially as he himself says
it's not likely to be particularly accurate and is only for fun. The
Met Office don't add that rider to theirs and I doubt they are likely
to be any more accurate!

Absolutely.
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

Anne Burgess wrote:
No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record
of accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in
essence admit this - guessing.
Many, many thank yous for your sincere replies though I detect
a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's reaction. May
I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.
I am sure he does, but however many hours he puts in and
however sincere in his beliefs, I will retain my cynicism
about anyone's long range forecasts.
Malcolm

Perhaps scepticism would be a more accurate term than cynicism?

Anne


--------------------------------
Yes. While I am probabbly as sceptical as Malcolm about the accuracy of
any long term forecasts there is enough useful and accurate theory there
for a beginner to learn from and probably enough possible errors for the
experts to debate and mull over so a big improvement on some posts!
Dave

"Norman" wrote in message
...


It's the Climate Forecast System operated by NCEP in the USA which,
amongst
other things, produces 12-hourly forecast charts out to 9 months ahead (I
kid
you not!) updated daily. Their current offering for midday on Christmas
Day is
a 960mb low centred NW of Scotland with strong SW'lies (probably Returning
Polar Maritime air) over the whole of the British Isles - to be treated
with
the utmost caution and cynicism :-)


Although with a resonable chance of being not too far away from
outcome, if only because that is a common winter sceanario
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Tuesday, October 7, 2014 7:53:06 AM UTC+1, Malcolm wrote:
In article ,

Bogdan Iqbal writes

On Monday, October 6, 2014 8:53:57 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Monday, October 6, 2014 9:33:49 AM UTC+1, Bogdan Iqbal wrote:

Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this

winter. It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will

agree. http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/ Why?

No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of

accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence

admit this - guessing.



Many, many thank yous for your sincere replies though I detect a slight

cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's reaction. May I reassure you

that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.



I am sure he does, but however many hours he puts in and however sincere

in his beliefs, I will retain my cynicism about anyone's long range

forecasts.



--

Malcolm

Me too!! It's a bit of fun. No more.

Bogdan Iqbal wrote:
On Monday, October 6, 2014 8:53:57 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, October 6, 2014 9:33:49 AM UTC+1, Bogdan Iqbal wrote: Good
morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this winter. It
holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.
http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/ Why? No-one can
predict the coming UK winter with any track record of accuracy and your
friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence admit this - guessing.

Many, many thank yous for your sincere replies though I detect a slight
cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's reaction. May I reassure you that
Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.


Don't doubt his hard work for a moment. Basically though he's another cold
weather nutter desperate to conjure up snow.Tell him to get up to Arctic
Devon with little Willie he's guaranteed it there. Don't let him forget his
shorts and string vest so he can fit in with the local.

--
Reg

"Bogdan Iqbal" wrote in message
...
Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this winter.
It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/

I wish Kasim all the very best in his endeavours.

It is very refreshing to see younger folk so enthusiastic about our topic.
There are a lot of old scrotes on here, some grumpy, some less so. But there
is also a lot of experience and many of us are professionals or retired
professionals. So expect some scepticism (hopefully constructive).

My take on LRFs is this. We will never be able to give what the public
wants, i.e. accurate daily forecasts out for a whole season. The atmosphere
is inherently chaotic and always will be. The solutions to the Navier Stokes
equations are not analytical and computational solutions will eventually
develop magnifying errors.

What we may well be able to do is predict the character of a season.
Essentially will it be blocked or zonal or a mixture and when. If it is
blocked where will the block be - that matters a lot. If it is zonal, how
zonal? Will the zonality be progressive or pseudo blocked. Where will the
jet be, north, over or south of UK. If one could get the above right then
the general weather type will follow. No good trying to predict daily or
even weekly detail.

I issue a forecast at the end of November on my website on the above lines.
Last winter I went for wet with a southerly latitude strong jet. I got the
wet correct!!! But over-played lowland snow and cold over Scotland. Upland
snow though in Scotland was indeed exceptional. Here is the forecast as
issued:

" As usual I have been looking at sea surface temperature anomalies, how
Russia and Canada have cooled relative to each other, location of jet
stream, local statistics and predictions from other centres to try to come
to a consensus view for the weather this coming winter. The Arctic appears
to have cooled faster than normal this autumn and now Arctic Canada is
cooling rapidly. This would tend to encourage a strong westerly flow. Sea
surface temperature anomalies provide an uncertain signal and nothing really
to latch onto. The polar front jet stream continues at a lower latitude than
normal after a few migrations north earlier in the year. I cannot see this
pattern changing and fully expect the mean position of the jet stream to
continue to be further south than normal at around 49N in the Atlantic.
Probably stronger this year though than last. Last winter we had a major
stratospheric warming leading to some very cold easterly spells. It is rare
for these to occur in successive years, so I expect fewer easterlies this
winter. Finally, there is a good correlation between cold and wet Novembers
and cold winters in the UK. This November certainly looks like being wet but
may not be particularly cold, so another mixed signal. Putting all of the
above together I have come up with a forecast given with LOW confidence as
follows.
Winter 2013/14 is going to be a winter of rapid changes and a "rough ride"
for many. Overall I expect it to be neither a cold one nor a mild one but
temperatures may end up below average. However, I am expecting a wet winter
with fewer frosty, dry and cold spells than last winter. But given the
southerly located jet stream, incursions of deep very cold air from the
north could give some transient exceptionally heavy snowfalls, especially in
northern areas where snowfall could be above average. Further south, and
especially on low ground, snowfall will be more marginal, but here, flooding
may become a major issue. So the headline summary is wet and changeable with
the threat of substantial snowfall at times in northern Britain. "

It's always good to look back and learn from mistakes.

I am looking forward immensely to see what Kasim comes up with next month.

Cheers,

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Will Hand wrote:

"Bogdan Iqbal" wrote in message
...
Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this
winter. It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/

I wish Kasim all the very best in his endeavours.

It is very refreshing to see younger folk so enthusiastic about our
topic. There are a lot of old scrotes on here, some grumpy, some less
so. But there is also a lot of experience and many of us are
professionals or retired professionals. So expect some scepticism
(hopefully constructive).

My take on LRFs is this. We will never be able to give what the public
wants, i.e. accurate daily forecasts out for a whole season. The
atmosphere is inherently chaotic and always will be. The solutions to
the Navier Stokes equations are not analytical and computational
solutions will eventually develop magnifying errors.

What we may well be able to do is predict the character of a season.
Essentially will it be blocked or zonal or a mixture and when. If it is
blocked where will the block be - that matters a lot. If it is zonal,
how zonal? Will the zonality be progressive or pseudo blocked. Where
will the jet be, north, over or south of UK. If one could get the above
right then the general weather type will follow. No good trying to
predict daily or even weekly detail.

I issue a forecast at the end of November on my website on the above
lines. Last winter I went for wet with a southerly latitude strong jet.
I got the wet correct!!! But over-played lowland snow and cold over
Scotland. Upland snow though in Scotland was indeed exceptional. Here is
the forecast as issued:

" As usual I have been looking at sea surface temperature anomalies, how
Russia and Canada have cooled relative to each other, location of jet
stream, local statistics and predictions from other centres to try to
come to a consensus view for the weather this coming winter. The Arctic
appears to have cooled faster than normal this autumn and now Arctic
Canada is cooling rapidly. This would tend to encourage a strong
westerly flow. Sea surface temperature anomalies provide an uncertain
signal and nothing really to latch onto. The polar front jet stream
continues at a lower latitude than normal after a few migrations north
earlier in the year. I cannot see this pattern changing and fully expect
the mean position of the jet stream to continue to be further south than
normal at around 49N in the Atlantic. Probably stronger this year though
than last. Last winter we had a major stratospheric warming leading to
some very cold easterly spells. It is rare for these to occur in
successive years, so I expect fewer easterlies this winter. Finally,
there is a good correlation between cold and wet Novembers and cold
winters in the UK. This November certainly looks like being wet but may
not be particularly cold, so another mixed signal. Putting all of the
above together I have come up with a forecast given with LOW confidence
as follows.
Winter 2013/14 is going to be a winter of rapid changes and a "rough
ride" for many. Overall I expect it to be neither a cold one nor a mild
one but temperatures may end up below average. However, I am expecting a
wet winter with fewer frosty, dry and cold spells than last winter. But
given the southerly located jet stream, incursions of deep very cold air
from the north could give some transient exceptionally heavy snowfalls,
especially in northern areas where snowfall could be above average.
Further south, and especially on low ground, snowfall will be more
marginal, but here, flooding may become a major issue. So the headline
summary is wet and changeable with the threat of substantial snowfall at
times in northern Britain. "

It's always good to look back and learn from mistakes.

I am looking forward immensely to see what Kasim comes up with next month.

Cheers,

Will
-------------------------------------
...... and we all enjoy reading them ;-) The problem I have with most
seasonal forecasts is that they are always half right as with yours! My
random guess will probably be half right for a whole season. If I say
this winter will be more snowy than last winter, generally a mild one
with about average rainfall but with some short colder spells I bet it
will be at least half right.
Last year the critical things were RECORD rainfall and not a SINGLE snow
flake in large areas of the Country. Nobody got that and I doubt any
ever will. But as you say they are still of great interest (or hope!)
and there is still a lot that can be learned about climate and the
weather from the rationale that attempts to predict. So roll on November
for this winter's one!
Dave

On Monday, October 6, 2014 9:33:49 AM UTC+1, Bogdan Iqbal wrote:

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/ Why? No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence admit this - guessing.



Many, many thank-yous for your sincere replies though I detect a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's reaction. May I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.

Ignore those two boners. If they are not one and the same idiot they are closely related (to seals or dogs. Not sure but they seem a couple of hard dicks of that sort. Of course I don't get close enough to examine what might be turds. So....)

You fail to make allowances for seismic disturbances; in which case you are making the same mistakes that were made in the 19th Century by some quite good lunarists.

You attempt to do what Piers Corbyn does, as he too leaves out teleconnections of the other geo-phenomena. Until you can incorporate the seismic effects along with other teleconnections, you will fare no better than he.

What you might do and it seems you ARE doing, is to explain your working models, something Piers refused to do. I doubt the MetO is still interested these days though, since they have been underwhelmed by climatologists.

Here is some insight you might care to make use of:
http://www.forgottenbooks.com/books/... r_1000855280

He was spot-on except he couldn't allow for the eruption of Krakatau. How could he?

It was more than the "one in a century" storm he had predicted.