Is any other weather enthusiast or retired forecaster like me being
inundated with questions about the winter forecast? They seem to have
seen something about 3 months of snow predicted. Not used to thinking of
looking at charts beyond 2 weeks but what I have found so far hasn't
agreed with what everyone is telling me. I thought there might have been
a discussion here on the winter seasonal models but haven't found it so far.

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On 14/10/2015 08:39, Trevor wrote:
Is any other weather enthusiast or retired forecaster like me being
inundated with questions about the winter forecast? They seem to have
seen something about 3 months of snow predicted. Not used to thinking of
looking at charts beyond 2 weeks but what I have found so far hasn't
agreed with what everyone is telling me. I thought there might have been
a discussion here on the winter seasonal models but haven't found it so
far.

---
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There ain't nobody here at all
You're stompin' around and shakin' the ground
You're kickin' up an awful dust
We chicken's tryin' to sleep and you butt in.

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I read a quite confident forecast that was released the other day by the Weather Channel (I think but can't find it now) that was promising a severe winter for Scandinavia and 'seasonal' temperatures for the bulk of the U.K. While Scotland is promised a 'cold winter'. I was surprised that the agency were so confident. *If* Scandinavia does get a severe winter - something that hasn't happened the last couple of years - the chances of the U.K. getting a cold, snowy spell via a NE'ly feed are obviously greatly increased. But I've seen this promise of early Siberian snow cover in October melt away time and again come the end of November...
In terms of people asking you about winter just tell them to wait until December 1st,Trevor.

On 14/10/2015 08:39, Trevor wrote:
Is any other weather enthusiast or retired forecaster like me being
inundated with questions about the winter forecast? They seem to have
seen something about 3 months of snow predicted. Not used to thinking of
looking at charts beyond 2 weeks but what I have found so far hasn't
agreed with what everyone is telling me. I thought there might have been
a discussion here on the winter seasonal models but haven't found it so
far.

There was some mention the other morning that Bewick's swans were
arriving early this year - although WWT confirms they are here (and in
particular one favourite swan) they make no mention of the date being
unusual so perhaps the journalists just made it up for a "story".

http://www.wwt.org.uk/news/all-news/...f-an-old-bird/

We are on the law of averages due a harsh winter this year since the
past two have been so mild that tender "annuals" that are in their
native habitat perennials have survived unscatched. I had pelargoniums
outside still in flower at Xmas both years and ancient anthirhinums.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

In message , Martin Brown
writes
snip
We are on the law of averages due a harsh winter this year since the
past two have been so mild that tender "annuals" that are in their
native habitat perennials have survived unscatched.

I think there is a tendency for cold and mild winters to come in
"clumps". So I think a run of mild winters actually makes the chances of
the next one being cold a little smaller. Obviously the run must come to
an end sometime, though.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On Wed, 14 Oct 2015 01:08:26 -0700 (PDT)
Scott W wrote:

I read a quite confident forecast that was released the other day by
the Weather Channel (I think but can't find it now) that was
promising a severe winter for Scandinavia and 'seasonal' temperatures
for the bulk of the U.K. While Scotland is promised a 'cold winter'.
I was surprised that the agency were so confident. *If* Scandinavia
does get a severe winter - something that hasn't happened the last
couple of years - the chances of the U.K. getting a cold, snowy spell
via a NE'ly feed are obviously greatly increased. But I've seen this
promise of early Siberian snow cover in October melt away time and
again come the end of November... In terms of people asking you about
winter just tell them to wait until December 1st,Trevor.

The combination of a severe Scandinavian winter, a cold one for
Scotland, but a normal one for England sounds a lot like 1965-6. In
that winter, the Baltic froze early and in the first part of the
winter looked a candidate for another rare occasion when it would
freeze completely but a late warming in the south prevented that. In
spite of the warmth in the south, southern Norway suffered a severe
winter with beach-front properties destroyed by 30-foot-high ridges of
ice being driven up the beaches by severe gales.

The pressure anomaly for November 1965 had a high of +17hPa just west
of Iceland with a low of -9 near Switzerland.
December had a low of -16hPa near southern Denmark with troughs
extending E and W of the centre.
January 1966 had a low of -20 near 45N 25W with a trough extending E to
a low of -12 near Turkey. Pressure was higher than normal from N Russia
to Canada, +15 over N Sweden, +18 over Greenland.
February had the main low further north at 50N 20W at -26hPa with a
trough running E'wards. A high of +16 was at 67N 37W. Cold easterlies
still affected the Baltic but southerly winds affected SW UK.
March showed a big change with a high near 50N 15W of +10hPa with UK in
NW'ly from Iceland. Northern Baltic was still in an easterly.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

On Wed, 14 Oct 2015 09:43:23 +0100
John Hall wrote:

In message , Martin Brown
writes
snip
We are on the law of averages due a harsh winter this year since the
past two have been so mild that tender "annuals" that are in their
native habitat perennials have survived unscatched.

I think there is a tendency for cold and mild winters to come in
"clumps". So I think a run of mild winters actually makes the chances
of the next one being cold a little smaller. Obviously the run must
come to an end sometime, though.

After the hot, dry summer of 1975, I said quite confidently that the
following summer would not be as good because "you never get two such
summers in a row and, in the twentieth century, all the good summers
have been in odd years." I think the weather gods gave me what I
deserved for that piece of stupidity.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

On 14/10/2015 10:21, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 14 Oct 2015 09:43:23 +0100
John Hall wrote:

In message , Martin Brown
writes
snip
We are on the law of averages due a harsh winter this year since the
past two have been so mild that tender "annuals" that are in their
native habitat perennials have survived unscatched.

I think there is a tendency for cold and mild winters to come in
"clumps". So I think a run of mild winters actually makes the chances
of the next one being cold a little smaller. Obviously the run must
come to an end sometime, though.

After the hot, dry summer of 1975, I said quite confidently that the
following summer would not be as good because "you never get two such
summers in a row and, in the twentieth century, all the good summers
have been in odd years." I think the weather gods gave me what I
deserved for that piece of stupidity.

Dunno about the coldest winter since Noah was a baby hows about running
a sweepstake forecasting the day that the Westerlies return ?
Thats about the most likely scenario for the UK

RonB

I think this is about as accurate as you can get...

Winter Expected To Be Cold

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/201...ed-to-be-cold/

Joe

On 14/10/2015 09:08, Scott W wrote:
I read a quite confident forecast that was released the other day by the Weather Channel (I think but can't find it now) that was promising a severe winter for Scandinavia and 'seasonal' temperatures for the bulk of the U.K. While Scotland is promised a 'cold winter'. I was surprised that the agency were so confident. *If* Scandinavia does get a severe winter - something that hasn't happened the last couple of years - the chances of the U.K. getting a cold, snowy spell via a NE'ly feed are obviously greatly increased. But I've seen this promise of early Siberian snow cover in October melt away time and again come the end of November...
In terms of people asking you about winter just tell them to wait until December 1st,Trevor.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
No - just tell them to stop reading the bloody Express and go away and
stop annoying me!
Dave