Though I dont know for sure what the driest 3 month period at Oxford
since rainfall records began in 1767 is, I have checked two years of
possible interest -

1893 March, April & May had a total of 34mm at the Radcliffe
Observatory, Oxford

For August, Sept & October the year that came to mind was 1947....the
total that year for Aug-Oct was 55mm (suspect some areas were
considerably drier as Aug 1947 had 15mm in Oxford compared to zero
rainfall in parts of Kent)

Regards
Jonathan Webb


www.torro.org.uk




The message
from Vidcapper contains these words:

In uk.sci.weather on Mon, 6 Oct 2003 at 07:03:45, Vidcapper wrote :
I may be jumping the gun here a little since we're only a week into
October, but does anyone have any stats on this?

I'd imagine 1976 must be in there somewhere, but that was some years
before I kept my own records.

Since I've kept records, it's been Jun-Aug'95 with 55.8mm, but the
driest Aug-Oct in 20 years was 138.1mm, so that looks certain to be
smashed out of sight

What - no takers?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/969296.stm 12th October 2000

"The effects of climate change mean Britain is increasingly at risk from
flooding, says the Environment Agency. It estimates that changing climate
patterns in the UK will eventually mean a 10% increase in annual rainfall,
wetter winters and more summer thunderstorms."

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/3033752.stm 30th June 2003

"Hotter and drier summers brought about by climate change will mean that the
availability of water supplies will come under even more pressure"
Quote from thre The Environment Agency annual state of the environment
report for the South East.

So which is it to be chaps?!

I'm just looking forward to the warm and dry October/ colder winter theory
being put to the test. :-))

Victor

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Victor, ignore them, nobody knows the effects of global warming.
Models provide estimates and Defra rightly fund those models for scenario
planning purposes. They are *NOT* forecasts and should never be treated as such.
The BBC are quoting out of context I suspect.

Will.
--

" Love begins when judgement ceases "
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www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

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and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Victor West wrote in message ...
From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/969296.stm 12th October 2000

"The effects of climate change mean Britain is increasingly at risk from
flooding, says the Environment Agency. It estimates that changing climate
patterns in the UK will eventually mean a 10% increase in annual rainfall,
wetter winters and more summer thunderstorms."

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/3033752.stm 30th June 2003

"Hotter and drier summers brought about by climate change will mean that the
availability of water supplies will come under even more pressure"
Quote from thre The Environment Agency annual state of the environment
report for the South East.

So which is it to be chaps?!

I'm just looking forward to the warm and dry October/ colder winter theory
being put to the test. :-))

Victor

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/969296.stm 12th October 2000

"The effects of climate change mean Britain is increasingly at risk from
flooding, says the Environment Agency. It estimates that changing climate
patterns in the UK will eventually mean a 10% increase in annual rainfall,
wetter winters and more summer thunderstorms."

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/3033752.stm 30th June 2003

"Hotter and drier summers brought about by climate change will mean that the
availability of water supplies will come under even more pressure"
Quote from thre The Environment Agency annual state of the environment
report for the South East.

So which is it to be chaps?!

Victor

Both! They are not inconsistent but are often thought to be. Note that the top
quote does not promise higher summer rainfall (drier summers, with a higher
proportion of the rain in thunderstorms, odd heavy falls with long dry spells
inferred) so it is consistent with the second one; and this trend is expected
to be particularly well developed in the South East.

As a post-script to this, I now think October might be my tenth consecutive
drier than average month. Still only 270mm so far this year .When I get time I
will compare with other dry sequences of months on the 330 year Kew rainfall
series and report back. My back garden rain gauge should have the same annual
average (c 600mm) as the old Kew Observatory site, pity my house does not
provide the same gracious architectural backcloth as the Observatory did!

Julian
Julian Mayes, West Molesey, Surrey

The message
from Vidcapper contains these words:

In uk.sci.weather on Mon, 6 Oct 2003 at 07:03:45, Vidcapper wrote :
I may be jumping the gun here a little since we're only a week into
October, but does anyone have any stats on this?

I'd imagine 1976 must be in there somewhere, but that was some years
before I kept my own records.

Since I've kept records, it's been Jun-Aug'95 with 55.8mm, but the
driest Aug-Oct in 20 years was 138.1mm, so that looks certain to be
smashed out of sight

What - no takers?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

August 1st-to date 36.6mm here. Looking at the records the previous 'driest
3 months' were April to June 1995 with 51.0mm and October to December 1983
with 55.8mm.
For January-September 2003 329.8mm (69% long term average) but 1996 had only
312mm (65%) for this period.
Fields here still very dry and dusty with deep cracks esp where London Clay
is exposed at the surface.
As Tom Bennett says the landscape from the air has a brown and parched look.
Flying over N.Essex and Suffolk recently (at the rather lower height of
4000'agl) one of the main features was the long dust trails being left by
tractors-no difficulty in judging surface wind direction there.

All the best

--
George in Epping, West Essex (107m asl)
www.eppingweather.co.uk

In article ,
George Booth writes:
August 1st-to date 36.6mm here. Looking at the records the previous
'driest 3 months' were April to June 1995 with 51.0mm and October to
December 1983 with 55.8mm. For January-September 2003 329.8mm (69% long
term average) but 1996 had only 312mm (65%) for this period.

That October to December figure is the one that stands out, AFAIAC. For
what is normally the most reliably rainy period of the year, it's
astonishing.
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

In uk.sci.weather on Fri, 10 Oct 2003 at 20:40:13, George Booth wrote :

August 1st-to date 36.6mm here. Looking at the records the previous 'driest
3 months' were April to June 1995 with 51.0mm and October to December 1983
with 55.8mm.
For January-September 2003 329.8mm (69% long term average) but 1996 had only
312mm (65%) for this period.
Fields here still very dry and dusty with deep cracks esp where London Clay
is exposed at the surface.

I must check on the Met Office website to see exactly which areas have
been affected since 1st Aug.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk