On 25/05/2016 08:53, wrote:

Probably when you start to complain about being too hot - as you do every year. (insert - smiley face)

Good job we don't use Will's definition, then...


--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Wednesday, 25 May 2016 07:49:29 UTC+1, vidcapper wrote:
On 25/05/2016 06:24, Dawlish wrote:

On Monday, May 23, 2016 at 7:57:15 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
......but the T+240 charts are just not playing ball.

Still no agreement on the advent of summer, though the gfs is trying!

But how would you define the start of summer, anyway?

When they load him in the back of a trailer and take him and his friends to pasture in them thar hills. I've noticed he spends a lot of time lieing is that organophosphate poisoning?

On Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 7:01:19 PM UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Wednesday, 25 May 2016 07:49:29 UTC+1, vidcapper wrote:
On 25/05/2016 06:24, Dawlish wrote:

On Monday, May 23, 2016 at 7:57:15 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
......but the T+240 charts are just not playing ball.

Still no agreement on the advent of summer, though the gfs is trying!

But how would you define the start of summer, anyway?

When they load him in the back of a trailer and take him and his friends to pasture in them thar hills. I've noticed he spends a lot of time lieing is that organophosphate poisoning?

Ooooooooo are we beginning to see high summer at the end of the first week in June? If GEM falls into line tomorrow, 30c wouldn't be impossible in 10 days time, with those gfs and ECM charts at T+240 this evening.

On Wednesday, 25 May 2016 20:07:51 UTC+12, Dawlish wrote:

Dunno. There is no definition. When I/we/the neighbours and dog walkers I meet feel it's summer, probably the best way! 😀 (real smiley face!) No consensus yet!

As an academic exercise - if you have a site with a fairly long record - and one is just considering temperatures (mean daily for each day, or perhaps the mean daily maximum), then assign the top 25% of the ranked calculated results to summer, the bottom 25% to winter, and the rest to spring and autumn. An interesting alternative is to actually divide the range of these daily values rather than the rankings - top 25% to summer, bottom 25% to winter, etc. With this method one needs either a fairly long record or a smoothing method (say 5-day means) to avoid letting an outlier day or two at the ends of the range distort the boundary values too much. I tried this latter for some of our NZ sites and got some sensible results - "spring" was considerably longer than "autumn", as expected. The variances in summer and winter lengths were trickier to explain in some cases.

Having said all that, to really assess my town's seasons, I consider sunshine and rainfall to also be very important, so would need to use some sort of weighting formula - haven't bothered to do this - perhaps a retirement project.

On Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 1:48:19 AM UTC+1, RW wrote:
On Wednesday, 25 May 2016 20:07:51 UTC+12, Dawlish wrote:

Dunno. There is no definition. When I/we/the neighbours and dog walkers I meet feel it's summer, probably the best way! 😀 (real smiley face!) No consensus yet!

As an academic exercise - if you have a site with a fairly long record - and one is just considering temperatures (mean daily for each day, or perhaps the mean daily maximum), then assign the top 25% of the ranked calculated results to summer, the bottom 25% to winter, and the rest to spring and autumn. An interesting alternative is to actually divide the range of these daily values rather than the rankings - top 25% to summer, bottom 25% to winter, etc. With this method one needs either a fairly long record or a smoothing method (say 5-day means) to avoid letting an outlier day or two at the ends of the range distort the boundary values too much. I tried this latter for some of our NZ sites and got some sensible results - "spring" was considerably longer than "autumn", as expected. The variances in summer and winter lengths were trickier to explain in some cases.

Having said all that, to really assess my town's seasons, I consider sunshine and rainfall to also be very important, so would need to use some sort of weighting formula - haven't bothered to do this - perhaps a retirement project.

I've figured it: the start of summer is when I can take the dog for a walk for the first time, in shorts and a T shirt with no fleece.

Yesterday - summer has started - not sure how long it will last mind, but we should squeeze today out of it!

On Sunday, 29 May 2016 01:48:19 UTC+1, RW wrote:
On Wednesday, 25 May 2016 20:07:51 UTC+12, Dawlish wrote:

Dunno. There is no definition. When I/we/the neighbours and dog walkers I meet feel it's summer, probably the best way! 😀 (real smiley face!) No consensus yet!

As an academic exercise - if you have a site with a fairly long record - and one is just considering temperatures (mean daily for each day, or perhaps the mean daily maximum), then assign the top 25% of the ranked calculated results to summer, the bottom 25% to winter, and the rest to spring and autumn. An interesting alternative is to actually divide the range of these daily values rather than the rankings - top 25% to summer, bottom 25% to winter, etc. With this method one needs either a fairly long record or a smoothing method (say 5-day means) to avoid letting an outlier day or two at the ends of the range distort the boundary values too much. I tried this latter for some of our NZ sites and got some sensible results

Without lpping off the medieval warming bit I presume?

- "spring" was considerably longer than "autumn", as expected. The variances in summer and winter lengths were trickier to explain in some cases.

Having said all that, to really assess my town's seasons, I consider sunshine and rainfall to also be very important, so would need to use some sort of weighting formula - haven't bothered to do this - perhaps a retirement project.

We should all have suffocated with nearly perfect agricultural grade cabon dioxide levels by then.