I've noticed that the NAO forecast has been updated on October 1st.

They're forecasting a 'slightly above average NAO' - which is similar
( I believe) to last year.
They have also forecast that there will be 'average storminess' in the
north Atlantic.

This seems - IMHO - to go against Roeder's forecast of a very positive
anomaly in the Mediterranean.

Surely in an 'average' winter we would not experience such a strong
'Bartlett High'

Or are we about to experience a winter on a par with 1989 / 90?

Comments anyone.

Scott Whitehead

I've noticed that the NAO forecast has been updated on October 1st.

They're forecasting a 'slightly above average NAO' This seems - IMHO - to go against Roeder's
forecast of a very positive
anomaly in the Mediterranean.
I don't think this necessarily in conflict with Roeder.The NAO forecast is for DJF as a whole I
think,when the signal of the NAO is strongest.NB the strong low[pressure anomaly nr Iceland in
Roeders Jan chart and high pressure in the Azores-the signature of the +ve NAO.December surly looks
blocked nr the UK tho and cold over Europe,

--
regards,
david

I think we are due a 89'90 type winter, so this year could be the one.

It's beginning to look like we are going to have one of those 'on the
dry side' autumns. No sign of any major low pressure crossing the uk,
just rain from tailing fronts or showers. I will have a look back to
see what other years produced a similar pattern.

Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

On 8 Oct 2003 04:28:47 -0700, (Scott
Whitehead) wrote:

I've noticed that the NAO forecast has been updated on October 1st.

They're forecasting a 'slightly above average NAO' - which is similar
( I believe) to last year.
They have also forecast that there will be 'average storminess' in the
north Atlantic.

This seems - IMHO - to go against Roeder's forecast of a very positive
anomaly in the Mediterranean.

Surely in an 'average' winter we would not experience such a strong
'Bartlett High'

Or are we about to experience a winter on a par with 1989 / 90?

Comments anyone.

Scott Whitehead

In article ,
danny writes:
I think we are due a 89'90 type winter, so this year could be the one.

Well, January and February 1990 were both very mild and wet, whilst
December 1989 was unremarkable. It surely isn't too long since we had a
winter broadly similar to that?
--
John Hall

"Distrust any enterprise that requires new clothes."
Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862)