OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would
not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler]

On Sunday, January 29, 2017 at 7:50:14 PM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would
not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler]

Yes I noticed how warm the SST had got when I glance at this a few minutes ago. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_l...maly_oper0.png Not just the coastal fringe, the above average SSts stretch out well into the Pacific.

Nearer to home the 'cool pool' in the N Atlantic seems to be far less of a a real feature now.

Graham
Penzance

On Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:50:14 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would
not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler]

I find that pretty worrying. It seems that the climate system is switching into a new mode. I wonder if the fires in Chile are related to this,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38766925
or whether it is caused by the lack of sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere.

On 29/01/17 22:01, Alastair wrote:
On Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:50:14 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder
what the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures
along the coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why
this wouldn't be causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an
El Nino such as the death of local fish. In the past, El Nino
events would have been defined by the state of the waters along the
coast, not by anomalies way out in the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png



I find that pretty worrying. It seems that the climate system is
switching into a new mode. I wonder if the fires in Chile are related
to this, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38766925 or
whether it is caused by the lack of sea ice in the Southern
Hemisphere.


I think the warm waters off the coast should have increased rainfall in
the region. Possibly the fact that it's not a true El Nino means that
the usual associated west winds from the ocean in that situation are not
present with this "pseudo Nino".

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would
not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler]

On 29/01/2017 19:50, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/an....1.26.2017.gif

It looks like the warmest anomalies are restricted to the Nino 1 and 2
regions. Nino 3.4 (for which the anomaly is used as a benchmark) looks
to be near neutral. The classic El Nino signature has the warm anomalies
way out to about 160W. What do the trade wind anomalies look like? It is
changes in the Walker circulation which cause the changes in weather
patterns around the globe and resultant destruction.

On 29/01/17 23:10, Adam Lea wrote:
On 29/01/2017 19:50, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/an....1.26.2017.gif

It looks like the warmest anomalies are restricted to the Nino 1 and 2
regions. Nino 3.4 (for which the anomaly is used as a benchmark) looks
to be near neutral. The classic El Nino signature has the warm anomalies
way out to about 160W. What do the trade wind anomalies look like? It is
changes in the Walker circulation which cause the changes in weather
patterns around the globe and resultant destruction.

I know I'm nobody's grandmother but thanks anyway for trying to teach me
to suck eggs. From my original comments, I thought it should be clear
that I realise it's not an El Nino as currently described. However, I
strongly suspect that the locals who originally described the events and
named them "El Nino" and "El Viejo" would have said this is the former.
They were only concerned with local effects and were unaware of any
global ramifications. Fifty years ago, when I first became aware of
these events, the important area was not out to 160W but in the region
normally affected by the Humboldt Current.

As to your question about the atmospheric circulation, it is still
weakly "La Nina" (to use the modern term) with local weak westerlies
aloft and minor easterlies at the surface.

Is a "classic" El Nino the one described by the new kids on the block
during the recent few decades or the one known by the local inhabitants
for hundreds, perhaps thousands of years (though obviously not by that
name before the conquistadores arrived)?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would
not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler]

On 29/01/17 19:50, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png


Here's a description from "The Ever-Changing Sea" by David B Ericson and
Goesta Wollin, published in 1971:

+++++
The coast of Peru provides a famous example of how a change in
atmospheric circulation may alter living conditions drastically. During
exceptional years a current of warm, less saline water creeps southward
along the coast of Peru, and may even pass Callao. This current is
called /El Nino/, the Christ Child, because it arrives near Christmas;
but it brings no blessings. On the contrary, disaster follows in its
wake. As the warm water mixes with the normal, cold coastal waters,
marine life from the lowest forms of plankton to fish suffer mass
mortality. Dead fish, littering the beaches, decompose and befoul both
the air and the coastal waters. Hydrogen sulphide is released in such
quantities that it blackens the white lead paint of ships, a phenomenon
known as the 'Callao Painter'. The guano birds, because of the dearth of
fish, die or leave their nests, so that the young perish, bringing
enormous loss to the guano industry.
+++++

Recently, low-level westerly wind anomalies have strengthened in the
Pacific to the east of 160W. This is probably responsible for the
anomalous warming. Whether it has produced the symptoms described above,
including the south-flowing El Nino, I've no evidence.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would
not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler]

On 29/01/17 19:50, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png


And now . . .

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/02...no-on-the-way/

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
Never approach a bull from the front, a horse from the rear,
or an idiot from any direction! [Irish proverb]

On Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:50:14 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish.

If you mean dearth of local fish let me assure you they are still there. They can't be caught because the food supply is too good for them to take the usual risks.

If you mean death, could you kindly provide the group with your definition of the term: El Nino?

On Wednesday, 1 February 2017 10:06:27 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 29/01/17 19:50, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png


Here's a description from "The Ever-Changing Sea" by David B Ericson and
Goesta Wollin, published in 1971:

+++++
The coast of Peru provides a famous example of how a change in
atmospheric circulation may alter living conditions drastically. During
exceptional years a current of warm, less saline water creeps southward
along the coast of Peru, and may even pass Callao. This current is
called /El Nino/, the Christ Child, because it arrives near Christmas;
but it brings no blessings. On the contrary, disaster follows in its
wake. As the warm water mixes with the normal, cold coastal waters,
marine life from the lowest forms of plankton to fish suffer mass
mortality. Dead fish, littering the beaches, decompose and befoul both
the air and the coastal waters. Hydrogen sulphide is released in such
quantities that it blackens the white lead paint of ships, a phenomenon
known as the 'Callao Painter'. The guano birds, because of the dearth of
fish, die or leave their nests, so that the young perish, bringing
enormous loss to the guano industry.
+++++

I find that description difficult to believe unless the account is by someone who has absolutely no idea what affects animals.

To start with fish swim away from problems. Some get caught out and some are chased inshore by the usual suspecrts who having been mildly poisoned go away.

The lack of predators leaves the catch of small fry to die in the usual way without being eaten. te stench being a visitation that is cyclical due to heating which causes prolific fish food to spread out and use up the oxygen.. The resulting algal growth can produce red tides.

All in all the hiatus causes death to an year's nestlings, giving their prey a respite. The islands affected have been ruined by the USA and other countries stealing their wealth: the guano. I dare say uncontrolled quarrying has caused the death of more nestlings than can be replaced so that coral shorelines are dying.

Recently, low-level westerly wind anomalies have strengthened in the
Pacific to the east of 160W. This is probably responsible for the
anomalous warming. Whether it has produced the symptoms described above,
including the south-flowing El Nino, I've no evidence.

I too suffer from lack of evidence but unlike you I actually think about what I believe.

We have been in an increased period of vulcan activity for a year and more; this will temporarily be the cause of anomalies.