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| uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
March 14th 18, 03:52 PM
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S(no)w agreement
There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury:
Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon |
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#2
March 14th 18, 09:14 PM
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S(no)w agreement
On Wednesday, 14 March 2018 16:52:17 UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:
There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury: Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon 24% chance of sleet then. |
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#3
March 14th 18, 11:31 PM
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S(no)w agreement
On Wednesday, March 14, 2018 at 9:14:43 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
On Wednesday, 14 March 2018 16:52:17 UTC+1, Len Wood wrote: There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury: Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon 24% chance of sleet then. It has now been upped to 50% by Met Office. MeteoGroup are unmoved. No warning out yet so it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Len Wembury, SW Devon |
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#4
March 15th 18, 07:24 AM
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S(no)w agreement
On 14/03/2018 23:31, Len Wood wrote:
On Wednesday, March 14, 2018 at 9:14:43 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote: On Wednesday, 14 March 2018 16:52:17 UTC+1, Len Wood wrote: There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury: Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon 24% chance of sleet then. It has now been upped to 50% by Met Office. MeteoGroup are unmoved. No warning out yet so it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. That's probably about as much as local councils have left, if we do get more snowy weather...  -- Paul Hyett, Cheltenham |
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#5
March 15th 18, 10:08 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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S(no)w agreement
On Wednesday, March 14, 2018 at 3:52:17 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote:
There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury: Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon Snows just appeared on the MetO forecast for Penzance 15:00 on Sunday. But only 1 flake, 60% chance & +3C. Very different to 28th Feb sub zero blizzard I think. Near St Ives https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com...0&h=412&crop=1 The warnings were all for the 1st March, but it didn't compare with the 28th Feb down here, snow quantity & wind wise. Graham Penzance |
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#6
March 15th 18, 02:48 PM
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S(no)w agreement
On Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 10:08:05 AM UTC, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, March 14, 2018 at 3:52:17 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote: There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury: Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon Snows just appeared on the MetO forecast for Penzance 15:00 on Sunday. But only 1 flake, 60% chance & +3C. Very different to 28th Feb sub zero blizzard I think. Near St Ives https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com...0&h=412&crop=1 The warnings were all for the 1st March, but it didn't compare with the 28th Feb down here, snow quantity & wind wise. Graham Penzance Forecast for Wembury issued 1400 Thurs 15th. Met Office have been spreading their bet (to use a meteorological term) now: Light snow anytime after 0900 on Sunday. 50% chance becoming 60%. BBC Meteogroup have now come on board: Light snow after 1400. 41% rising to 67% chance. Len On SW Devon coast |
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#7
March 17th 18, 10:15 AM
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S(no)w agreement
On Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 2:48:19 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote:
On Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 10:08:05 AM UTC, Graham Easterling wrote: On Wednesday, March 14, 2018 at 3:52:17 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote: There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury: Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon Snows just appeared on the MetO forecast for Penzance 15:00 on Sunday. But only 1 flake, 60% chance & +3C. Very different to 28th Feb sub zero blizzard I think. Near St Ives https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com...0&h=412&crop=1 The warnings were all for the 1st March, but it didn't compare with the 28th Feb down here, snow quantity & wind wise. Graham Penzance Forecast for Wembury issued 1400 Thurs 15th. Met Office have been spreading their bet (to use a meteorological term) now: Light snow anytime after 0900 on Sunday. 50% chance becoming 60%. BBC Meteogroup have now come on board: Light snow after 1400. 41% rising to 67% chance. Len On SW Devon coast ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 17th, 1000 Still no agreement between Met Office and Meteogroup The latter gives 26% chance of light snow here this afternoon 1500. Met office gives no snow until tomorrow morning 0500. 50% chance Who are we to believe? Len Wembury, SW Devon |
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#8
March 19th 18, 10:48 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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S(no)w agreement
On Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 10:15:45 AM UTC, Len Wood wrote:
On Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 2:48:19 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote: On Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 10:08:05 AM UTC, Graham Easterling wrote: On Wednesday, March 14, 2018 at 3:52:17 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote: There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury: Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon Snows just appeared on the MetO forecast for Penzance 15:00 on Sunday. But only 1 flake, 60% chance & +3C. Very different to 28th Feb sub zero blizzard I think. Near St Ives https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com...0&h=412&crop=1 The warnings were all for the 1st March, but it didn't compare with the 28th Feb down here, snow quantity & wind wise. Graham Penzance Forecast for Wembury issued 1400 Thurs 15th. Met Office have been spreading their bet (to use a meteorological term) now: Light snow anytime after 0900 on Sunday. 50% chance becoming 60%. BBC Meteogroup have now come on board: Light snow after 1400. 41% rising to 67% chance. Len On SW Devon coast ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 17th, 1000 Still no agreement between Met Office and Meteogroup The latter gives 26% chance of light snow here this afternoon 1500. Met office gives no snow until tomorrow morning 0500. 50% chance Who are we to believe? Len Wembury, SW Devon ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Time to assess at outcome. Met Office 1 MeteoGroup 1 Concerning T+24 hr forecasts for Wembury: Sat 17th, the snow from 1300 to 1500 was not forecast by Met Office. It was forecast by Meteogroup. Sun 18th, Meteogroup forecast heavy snow showers 0300 to 0600. Did not happen. Met Office forecast better on this day, although timing of the heavy snow was about 2 hours too early. So what are others opinions on this ng concerning the reliability of the forecasts from these providers now MeteoGroup have been up and running for a few weeks? Len Wembury ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
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#9
March 19th 18, 02:16 PM
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S(no)w agreement
On Monday, 19 March 2018 10:48:18 UTC, Len Wood wrote:
On Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 10:15:45 AM UTC, Len Wood wrote: On Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 2:48:19 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote: On Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 10:08:05 AM UTC, Graham Easterling wrote: On Wednesday, March 14, 2018 at 3:52:17 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote: There is no agreement in forecasts for Sunday in Wembury: Met Office today (14th) is giving 40% chance of light snow at 1200 on Sunday 18th. BBC MeteoGroup is giving for the same time 8% chance of rain, no mention of snow. Len Wembury, SW Devon Snows just appeared on the MetO forecast for Penzance 15:00 on Sunday. But only 1 flake, 60% chance & +3C. Very different to 28th Feb sub zero blizzard I think. Near St Ives https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com...0&h=412&crop=1 The warnings were all for the 1st March, but it didn't compare with the 28th Feb down here, snow quantity & wind wise. Graham Penzance Forecast for Wembury issued 1400 Thurs 15th. Met Office have been spreading their bet (to use a meteorological term) now: Light snow anytime after 0900 on Sunday. 50% chance becoming 60%. BBC Meteogroup have now come on board: Light snow after 1400. 41% rising to 67% chance. Len On SW Devon coast ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 17th, 1000 Still no agreement between Met Office and Meteogroup The latter gives 26% chance of light snow here this afternoon 1500. Met office gives no snow until tomorrow morning 0500. 50% chance Who are we to believe? Len Wembury, SW Devon ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Time to assess at outcome. Met Office 1 MeteoGroup 1 Concerning T+24 hr forecasts for Wembury: Sat 17th, the snow from 1300 to 1500 was not forecast by Met Office. It was forecast by Meteogroup. Sun 18th, Meteogroup forecast heavy snow showers 0300 to 0600. Did not happen. Met Office forecast better on this day, although timing of the heavy snow was about 2 hours too early. So what are others opinions on this ng concerning the reliability of the forecasts from these providers now MeteoGroup have been up and running for a few weeks? Len Wembury ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hi Len I did notice that the MeteoGroup forecast on the BBC cleared the snow on Sunday in Devon away far too quickly, but without the UKMO mesoscale output to compare the ECMWF model (that MeteoGroup presumably used) against, it's impossible to say if the Met Office would have done any better in this regard. https://wp.me/p7wiux-37U Bruce. |
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#10
March 19th 18, 06:16 PM
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S(no)w agreement
In message , Len
Wood writes So what are others opinions on this ng concerning the reliability of the forecasts from these providers now MeteoGroup have been up and running for a few weeks? My subjective impression has been that in general the Met Office forecasts have been much superior. -- John Hall "Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history that man can never learn anything from history." George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950) |
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