https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

It's just wallpaper to say 'the world is very warm', but put this in perspective. We've just come out of 2 years of ENSO neutral, or La Nina conditions. The world should be cool. Instead, we are warmer than at any time, even in any El Nino previous, at this time of year, except for Feb 2016 and 2017, in the thrall of the warmest El Nino on record.

This is unprecedented warmth. We should be very worried.

On 20/03/2019 18:51, wrote:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

It's just wallpaper to say 'the world is very warm', but put this in perspective. We've just come out of 2 years of ENSO neutral, or La Nina conditions. The world should be cool. Instead, we are warmer than at any time, even in any El Nino previous, at this time of year, except for Feb 2016 and 2017, in the thrall of the warmest El Nino on record.

This is unprecedented warmth. We should be very worried.


The ENSO update tomorrow should turn the last entries red tomorrow ,

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

for the new El Nino

On Wednesday, 20 March 2019 21:20:13 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/03/2019 18:51, wrote:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

It's just wallpaper to say 'the world is very warm', but put this in perspective. We've just come out of 2 years of ENSO neutral, or La Nina conditions. The world should be cool. Instead, we are warmer than at any time, even in any El Nino previous, at this time of year, except for Feb 2016 and 2017, in the thrall of the warmest El Nino on record.

This is unprecedented warmth. We should be very worried.


The ENSO update tomorrow should turn the last entries red tomorrow ,

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

for the new El Nino

Yes. Five, consecutive, overlapping, 3-month periods! Quite a mouthful. Global temperatures should warm further over the coming months, as the ocean's warmth is transferred to the atmosphere. There's always several months lag though.

On 21/03/2019 05:22, wrote:
On Wednesday, 20 March 2019 21:20:13 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/03/2019 18:51, wrote:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

It's just wallpaper to say 'the world is very warm', but put this in perspective. We've just come out of 2 years of ENSO neutral, or La Nina conditions. The world should be cool. Instead, we are warmer than at any time, even in any El Nino previous, at this time of year, except for Feb 2016 and 2017, in the thrall of the warmest El Nino on record.

This is unprecedented warmth. We should be very worried.


The ENSO update tomorrow should turn the last entries red tomorrow ,

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

for the new El Nino

Yes. Five, consecutive, overlapping, 3-month periods! Quite a mouthful. Global temperatures should warm further over the coming months, as the ocean's warmth is transferred to the atmosphere. There's always several months lag though.


I'm assuming the serious cold spot recently ,just to the east of the
critical Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW), suggests serious
upwelling from the deeps implying a recently stronger surface component
to the new El Niño. I'll have to check earlier such events .

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

On Thursday, 21 March 2019 09:37:18 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 21/03/2019 05:22, wrote:
On Wednesday, 20 March 2019 21:20:13 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/03/2019 18:51, wrote:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

It's just wallpaper to say 'the world is very warm', but put this in perspective. We've just come out of 2 years of ENSO neutral, or La Nina conditions. The world should be cool. Instead, we are warmer than at any time, even in any El Nino previous, at this time of year, except for Feb 2016 and 2017, in the thrall of the warmest El Nino on record.

This is unprecedented warmth. We should be very worried.


The ENSO update tomorrow should turn the last entries red tomorrow ,

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

for the new El Nino

Yes. Five, consecutive, overlapping, 3-month periods! Quite a mouthful. Global temperatures should warm further over the coming months, as the ocean's warmth is transferred to the atmosphere. There's always several months lag though.


I'm assuming the serious cold spot recently ,just to the east of the
critical Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW), suggests serious
upwelling from the deeps implying a recently stronger surface component
to the new El Niño. I'll have to check earlier such events .

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

It's been there throughout and atmospheric conditions are not typical El Nino either. In addition, the Aussie BOM have only issued an El Nino alert very recently.

On Thursday, 21 March 2019 12:31:47 UTC, wrote:
On Thursday, 21 March 2019 09:37:18 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 21/03/2019 05:22, wrote:
On Wednesday, 20 March 2019 21:20:13 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 20/03/2019 18:51, wrote:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

It's just wallpaper to say 'the world is very warm', but put this in perspective. We've just come out of 2 years of ENSO neutral, or La Nina conditions. The world should be cool. Instead, we are warmer than at any time, even in any El Nino previous, at this time of year, except for Feb 2016 and 2017, in the thrall of the warmest El Nino on record.

This is unprecedented warmth. We should be very worried.


The ENSO update tomorrow should turn the last entries red tomorrow ,

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

for the new El Nino

Yes. Five, consecutive, overlapping, 3-month periods! Quite a mouthful. Global temperatures should warm further over the coming months, as the ocean's warmth is transferred to the atmosphere. There's always several months lag though.


I'm assuming the serious cold spot recently ,just to the east of the
critical Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW), suggests serious
upwelling from the deeps implying a recently stronger surface component
to the new El Niño. I'll have to check earlier such events .

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

In addition, the Aussie BOM have only issued an El Nino alert very recently.
BOM uses a temperature threshold of +0.8 for El Nino (and -0.8 for La Nina) as it is recognised that these thresholds need to be attained for effects to occur in their area of interest. I believe that the Met Office uses BOM thresholds for recognising El Nino and La Nina too. Also, during this current run-up to El Nino it has taken longer than usual for the atmosphere to display El Nino characteristics, despite the SST anomalies.

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (very few tweets getting through currently)
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...201903MAR.xlsx