Unusual - and the forecast for the rest of the year is for something similar.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf

On 17/06/2019 09:58, wrote:
Unusual - and the forecast for the rest of the year is for something similar.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf


And my spot evaluations by pixel counting from the NOAA plots,
to higher resolution than the rolling quarter NOAA outputs, suggest a
stabilising.
I'll have to ask some of our local NOC oceanographers, if a stable "El
Nino" current can develop , like the Gulf stream, just the right
positive and negative feedbacks to stabilise throughout the seasons into
a constant half-hearted El Nino. And whether any other known
oceanographic oscillations known to stabilise for an extended period,
say years or decades.

year-day-number, NOAA 3.4 SST anomaly
2018
358; El Nino +0.8
361; El Nino +0.8
365; Nino +0.75

2019
4 ; Nino +0.75
17 ; Nino +0.63
21; Nino +0.41
24; Nino +0.34
28; Nino +0.36
31; Nino +0.69
35; Nino +0.37
45; Nino +0.59
....
91: Nino +0.93
112 : Nino +0.93
119: Nino +0.91
126 :Nino +0.89
129: Nino +0.87
133:Nino +0.88
136:Nino +0.80
140: Nino +0.84
143: Nino +0.93
147: Nino +0.89
150: Nino +1.07
154, : Nino +1.00
157: Nino +0.89
161: Nino +0.91
164: Nino +0.91 (last thursday)

ATM the flatline is just interesting - but it is a little odd! It can develop quickly though and I don’t think it is a new norm, or anything. ENSO is what it is; an oscillation. The upward trend in the warmth of the cycles is what interests and worries, me.

On 17/06/2019 16:54, wrote:
ATM the flatline is just interesting - but it is a little odd! It can develop quickly though and I don’t think it is a new norm, or anything. ENSO is what it is; an oscillation. The upward trend in the warmth of the cycles is what interests and worries, me.


Pixel counting NOAA output for 17 June +0.92 .
I'll ask our local NOC Southampton tame prof tomorrow (a bit of a media
goto for oceanography stuff), if he has any thoughts on this.