Ok, anybody foolhardy enough to offer an opinion on what they feel the
coming winter may or may not have in store for us? I know it's still a bit
too early but what the hell. :-)

Victor

"Victor West" wrote in message
...
Ok, anybody foolhardy enough to offer an opinion on what they feel the
coming winter may or may not have in store for us? I know it's still a bit
too early but what the hell. :-)

Victor



Victor. You couldn't maintain "chomping at the bit"- could you?

I agree this is always an exciting time of year. As September works through
to October, I always look for those "chill easterly northterly winds" as a
portend of winter to come. Unfortunately sod all's happened of signifigance
in "many a year". None the less we all start to get very excited at the
pontential prospects for the coming winter. That's why TWO and Metcheck are
so alluring to all of us. their sensational headlines always make us think
"Emm maybe this winter will reverse the trend of recent years"
I will say though Victor that subjectively, without checking the statistics.
That in the early Autumnal period of 1978 I distinctly remember a N/E
blustery chilly day in Greenwich Park possibly around this time of year. Now
if that's correct the Autumn took a turn for the exceptionally mild variety,
right up until several days after christmas. The rest is weather history.

One thing that has struck me all along this year is the _superficial_
similarity to 1959. I haven't checked in detail the synoptic picture,
but for parameters like sunshine, temperature, character of
summer/autumn etc., it is quite interesting to see how the same comments
crop up in 1959 weather summaries (but only for the southeastern part of
England - not trying to spread the analogue too far geographically).

In October 1959, I've got notes such as:.... "an exceptionally sunny
month"; "a mostly dry month". At the time, regarded as the sunniest
October in the England/Wales series. Exceptionally warm in the first
week - all following a fine, warm/dry summer - one of the 'best'
(depending upon your point of view of course) in the 20th century.
However, 26th October: "Exceptional rainfall across central and northern
Britain" - and the "month ended cold and stormy". October 1959 rainfall
ended up technically 'close-to-average' over the EWP domain.

The rainfall over the following winter (using the Hadley/EWP dataset)
was on the high side - January notably so. And although not
'exceptionally' mild, the average temperature Dec/Jan/Feb using the CET
dataset was 4.6degC, which is not far away from the *current* mean
(1971-2000), but was about half-a-degree above the 1961-1990 average,
and nearly a degree above the 'whole-dataset' winter average.

Of note though, and always worth pointing out in our current debates,
there was notable snowfall, particularly in Scotland in January & more
generally in February - also some Severe Gales in December 1959.

I'm not saying this is what is going to happen this time around, but
worth not getting too hung-up on the current dry, relatively quiet
spell. The latest GFS output for example would suggest a major change
back-end of next week .... as ever "more runs are needed".

Martin.

I'm confident of an 89\90 type winter this year. I think we're due an Azores
dominated SW type flow. Naturally the records to go.
Expect our usual Northerly cold snap around late December, but I believe any
cold snaps will be few and far between, and not severe, expecially in the
south, as any cold snaps I believe will be Arctic origin.

In article ,
Victor West writes:
Ok, anybody foolhardy enough to offer an opinion on what they feel the
coming winter may or may not have in store for us? I know it's still a bit
too early but what the hell. :-)

At times it will be wet, but at others it will be dry. Sometimes it will
be cold, on other occasions mild.

(Style borrowed from the Met Office monthly forecasts.
--
John Hall

You can divide people into two categories:
those who divide people into two categories and those who don't

Hmmm, I'll go for the mild, even exceptionally mild, slightly dry, sunnier
than normal winter. Winds predominantly from the south-west with pressure
high to the south. Though, with the emergence of the rare easterlies this
week, maybe we could have a blast from Siberia bringing that all too rare
white stuff. A sunny and warm spring to follow?

Standby pipes in the streets by August..................

_________________________________
Nick

Wine is fine but whisky's quicker.....

I the winter of 2004/04 will be exactly the same in all detail to the winter
of 2004/04 ;-)




"Victor West" wrote in message
...
Ok, anybody foolhardy enough to offer an opinion on what they feel the
coming winter may or may not have in store for us? I know it's still a bit
too early but what the hell. :-)

Victor

"Victor West" wrote in
:

Ok, anybody foolhardy enough to offer an opinion on what they feel the
coming winter may or may not have in store for us? I know it's still a
bit too early but what the hell. :-)

Similar to the last 2-3 years with more blocked than zonal weather. Who
knows, maybe more winds from the east than normal?

All gut feeling though, no backing behind this other than persistence!

Richard

"lawrence jenkins" wrote in message
...
Victor. You couldn't maintain "chomping at the bit"- could you?


No Lawrence, I couldn't. I thought I could handle it. I thought I could
control it rather than it control me. I thought nuances were for me. I was
wrong, so badly wrong!! :-))

Victor

In article , Victor West
writes
Ok, anybody foolhardy enough to offer an opinion on what they feel the
coming winter may or may not have in store for us? I know it's still a bit
too early but what the hell. :-)

Victor

Victor I have muttered in a new thread.
Cheers
Paul
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
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