First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn, or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf

On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn, or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf


So the longest protracted neutral ENSO for 60 years
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
I'm waiting to see if the ENSO oscillation has "simply" stopped
oscillating. With the SST hot "blob" east of New Zealand being in
anti-phase lock-step with El Nino sea-area 3.4, locking ENSO out of
proceeding to the El Nino state , or Nina for that matter.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 10:00:00 AM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn, or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf


So the longest protracted neutral ENSO for 60 years
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
I'm waiting to see if the ENSO oscillation has "simply" stopped
oscillating. With the SST hot "blob" east of New Zealand being in
anti-phase lock-step with El Nino sea-area 3.4, locking ENSO out of
proceeding to the El Nino state , or Nina for that matter.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

I very much doubt it has, Noman, but time will, of course, tell.

On 10/03/2020 11:02, wrote:
On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 10:00:00 AM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn, or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf


So the longest protracted neutral ENSO for 60 years
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
I'm waiting to see if the ENSO oscillation has "simply" stopped
oscillating. With the SST hot "blob" east of New Zealand being in
anti-phase lock-step with El Nino sea-area 3.4, locking ENSO out of
proceeding to the El Nino state , or Nina for that matter.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

I very much doubt it has, Noman, but time will, of course, tell.


"Expect the unexpected" was what an oceanography professor told me in
the early days of reference to climate change.
At the time they'd just detected that the deep cold water return
component of the North Atlantic AMOC had stopped/diverted? for a few weeks.


--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn, or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf


But the CFS.v2 forecast in that pdf is predicting an El Nino.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the
truth.� [Ambassador Kosh]
Posted via Mozilla Thunderbird on openSUSE Tumbleweed.

On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 11:33:06 AM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 10/03/2020 11:02, wrote:
On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 10:00:00 AM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn, or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf


So the longest protracted neutral ENSO for 60 years
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
I'm waiting to see if the ENSO oscillation has "simply" stopped
oscillating. With the SST hot "blob" east of New Zealand being in
anti-phase lock-step with El Nino sea-area 3.4, locking ENSO out of
proceeding to the El Nino state , or Nina for that matter.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

I very much doubt it has, Noman, but time will, of course, tell.


"Expect the unexpected" was what an oceanography professor told me in
the early days of reference to climate change.
At the time they'd just detected that the deep cold water return
component of the North Atlantic AMOC had stopped/diverted? for a few weeks.


--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

The real Kraken may be waking!

On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 11:58:17 AM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn, or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf


But the CFS.v2 forecast in that pdf is predicting an El Nino.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the
truth.� [Ambassador Kosh]
Posted via Mozilla Thunderbird on openSUSE Tumbleweed.

It predicts ENSO neutral throughout, with variations during the period. it never escapes -0.5 - +0.5. I watch the changes from week to week and the probabilities, on the bar graph. Distinct tick up in the probability of La Nina this week - TBF, nothing but ENSO neutral showing, just yet. but these changes always start somewhere. We'll see.

On 10/03/2020 13:04, wrote:
On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 11:58:17 AM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn,
or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf




But the CFS.v2 forecast in that pdf is predicting an El Nino.


It predicts ENSO neutral throughout, with variations during the
period. it never escapes -0.5 - +0.5. I watch the changes from week
to week and the probabilities, on the bar graph. Distinct tick up in
the probability of La Nina this week - TBF, nothing but ENSO neutral
showing, just yet. but these changes always start somewhere. We'll
see.


The particular prediction to which I was referring is on page 25 and
shows the anomalies dropping below -1.0 from ASO. However, I've also
been watching this product for a long time and suspect that rolling a
die would work just as well. :-)

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the
truth.� [Ambassador Kosh]
Posted via Mozilla Thunderbird on openSUSE Tumbleweed.

On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 2:21:35 PM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 10/03/2020 13:04, wrote:
On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 11:58:17 AM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn,
or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf




But the CFS.v2 forecast in that pdf is predicting an El Nino.


It predicts ENSO neutral throughout, with variations during the
period. it never escapes -0.5 - +0.5. I watch the changes from week
to week and the probabilities, on the bar graph. Distinct tick up in
the probability of La Nina this week - TBF, nothing but ENSO neutral
showing, just yet. but these changes always start somewhere. We'll
see.


The particular prediction to which I was referring is on page 25 and
shows the anomalies dropping below -1.0 from ASO. However, I've also
been watching this product for a long time and suspect that rolling a
die would work just as well. :-)

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the
truth.� [Ambassador Kosh]
Posted via Mozilla Thunderbird on openSUSE Tumbleweed.

A fairly strong La Nina now very likely through the boreal autumn and winter. Should drop global temperatures. It'll be very interesting to see by how much.

On 28/09/2020 15:10, Paul from Dawlish wrote:
A fairly strong La Nina now very likely through the boreal autumn and winter. Should drop global temperatures. It'll be very interesting to see by how much.

Could be just a blip , but consistently over the last few days, more
yellow , less blue in "El Nino" sea-area 3.4 about the Pacific equator,
La Nina return fading already?


--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm