Looks as though the forecast Storm is now going to slip along the Channel at
985mbs and be gone by early afternoon.

Tomorrows Low may well bring us more wind!

I'm off to encounter the cones on the M25.. See you later

Phil

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Looks as though the forecast Storm is now going to slip along the
Channel at
985mbs and be gone by early afternoon.

Tomorrows Low may well bring us more wind!

I'm off to encounter the cones on the M25.. See you later

Phil

.... yes, there is still some time to go to let this one play out, but it
looks as if the uncertainty we were all talking about several days ago
was fully justified. Still time for things to go wrong of course (and
the potential for strong gusts is still there), so particularly for SE
England/East Anglia a potential problem, and of course our friends on
the other side of the North Sea and Channel will be sweating it out. And
we'll need to keep an eye on the cold air squeeze late tonight/tomorrow
in the west.

Weather forecasting is still a very tricky business ... even 6 to 12
hours ahead.

Martin.

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Looks as though the forecast Storm is now going to slip along the
Channel at
985mbs and be gone by early afternoon.

Tomorrows Low may well bring us more wind!

I'm off to encounter the cones on the M25.. See you later

Phil

... yes, there is still some time to go to let this one play out, but it
looks as if the uncertainty we were all talking about several days ago
was fully justified. Still time for things to go wrong of course (and
the potential for strong gusts is still there), so particularly for SE
England/East Anglia a potential problem, and of course our friends on
the other side of the North Sea and Channel will be sweating it out. And
we'll need to keep an eye on the cold air squeeze late tonight/tomorrow
in the west.

Weather forecasting is still a very tricky business ... even 6 to 12
hours ahead.

Martin.


Indeed the low to the west of Ireland this morning appears quite an intense
feature, it seems very likely that this low will spread a period of v windy
of a large part of England & Wales later tonight and into Tuesday. WV
imagery shows a good deal of upper forcing assoc with the low.

Regards
Paul

I was under the impression that most of the uncertaintity with this one was
whether the track would give 70mph or 90 mph winds and whether GFS was badly
underplaying things.
If it turns out to be wrong I shall be glad to not get the devastation.
If it turns out to be right (and there is still time) I shall be glad that I
was able to give family and friends warning of the potential danger.

Dave, S.Essex, calm, steady rain.

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

Snip
... yes, there is still some time to go to let this one play out, but it
looks as if the uncertainty we were all talking about several days ago
was fully justified. Still time for things to go wrong of course (and
the potential for strong gusts is still there), so particularly for SE
England/East Anglia a potential problem, and of course our friends on
the other side of the North Sea and Channel will be sweating it out

Very much so, Martin; as indicated in the TAFs, eg Brussels :-

EBBR 120900Z 121019 20015G25KT 7000 -RA BKN018 BECMG 1113
18022G35KT 4000 RA BKN008 BKN015 TEMPO 1417 27035G50KT
BECMG 1416 9999 NSW SCT015 BKN035 BECMG 1819 25018G28KT=

It was a close run thing for the UK and we're not out of the woods yet as
you say.

.. And
we'll need to keep an eye on the cold air squeeze late tonight/tomorrow
in the west.

A new warning was under consideration when I left. Western parts of England
and Wales looked particularly at risk as the next low moves in.

Jon.

Indeed the low to the west of Ireland this morning appears quite an intense
feature, it seems very likely that this low will spread a period of v windy
of a large part of England & Wales later tonight and into Tuesday. WV
imagery shows a good deal of upper forcing assoc with the low.

Regards
Paul
Looks interesting ~09Z appears to be evolving into a comma cloud from cloud head in satellite
imagery,

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

On Mon, 12 Jan 2004 09:51:33 -0000, Waghorn wrote in


Indeed the low to the west of Ireland this morning appears quite an intense
feature, it seems very likely that this low will spread a period of v windy
of a large part of England & Wales later tonight and into Tuesday. WV
imagery shows a good deal of upper forcing assoc with the low.

Regards
Paul
Looks interesting ~09Z appears to be evolving into a comma cloud from cloud head in satellite
imagery,

That feature at about 35 to 40 Degrees west last evening (on the cold side
of the main jet) caught my eye too. It seemed to have the potential to
develop substantially over a 24 hour period and now that does appear to be
the case.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 12/01/2004 10:15:26 UTC

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

Snip
... yes, there is still some time to go to let this one play out, but it
looks as if the uncertainty we were all talking about several days ago
was fully justified. Still time for things to go wrong of course (and
the potential for strong gusts is still there), so particularly for SE
England/East Anglia a potential problem, and of course our friends on
the other side of the North Sea and Channel will be sweating it out

Very much so, Martin; as indicated in the TAFs, eg Brussels :-

EBBR 120900Z 121019 20015G25KT 7000 -RA BKN018 BECMG 1113
18022G35KT 4000 RA BKN008 BKN015 TEMPO 1417 27035G50KT
BECMG 1416 9999 NSW SCT015 BKN035 BECMG 1819 25018G28KT=

It was a close run thing for the UK and we're not out of the woods yet as
you say.

. And
we'll need to keep an eye on the cold air squeeze late tonight/tomorrow
in the west.

A new warning was under consideration when I left. Western parts of
England
and Wales looked particularly at risk as the next low moves in.

Could be dangerous as there is bound to be a certain amount of "cry wolf"
factor carrying over from today.

I know the MetO is in a difficult position when it comes to these
situations, but there can't be many setups when there is such a massive
difference in the warned wind speeds and the actual wind speeds from a 12
hour out forecast.

- Michael