http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif

Operational run suggests blocking Iceland-Greenland area. Northerly flow
by next weekeend becomes NE'ly with time; good support from the
ensembles.

Watch this space.

Jon.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

On Mon, 19 Jan 2004 01:29:58 +0000 (UTC), Jon O Rourke wrote in
news:883c7b2eb0a3980792a024aa94d5a9b2.62236@mygat e.mailgate.org

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif

Operational run suggests blocking Iceland-Greenland area. Northerly flow
by next weekeend becomes NE'ly with time; good support from the
ensembles.

This scenario looks well suported by the GFS model again today. This is
the 180 hours 850mb flow and temps:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.html

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 19/01/2004 09:15:20 UTC

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message ...
This scenario looks well suported by the GFS model again today. This is
the 180 hours 850mb flow and temps:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.html
The ensembles make interesting viewing today;

http://64.246.48.81/pics/MT8_London_ens.gif
http://64.246.48.81/pics/MT8_Abderdeen_ens.gif
http://64.246.48.81/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.gif

It looks as though the northerly then NE'ly scenario is perhaps unlikely, as
today's operational run was a cold outlier (along with a very similar
ensemble member).

However, the signs are there for a cold snap, with the average held up
above -5C for London due to 3 or 4 mild outliers.

The ECM ensemble output for the UK isn't to be seen by most of us, of
course, but the ensembles for De Bilt are available he

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/20..._06260_NWT.gif

Again, there's a noticable trend towards day 10 for cooling. Perhaps the
most interesting thing is the cluster of runs suggesting that the milder
westerlies don't even make it that far, with five runs showing sub zero
temperatures lasting for close to a week over there....

Interesting times, whatever happens - but don't be surprised if there are a
few more wobbles yet!

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...


Interesting times, whatever happens -

Hi, Darren,

Those are the key words!

ATB,

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.freeserve.com/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk


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On Mon, 19 Jan 2004 01:29:58 +0000 (UTC), "Jon O Rourke"
wrote:

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif

Operational run suggests blocking Iceland-Greenland area. Northerly flow
by next weekeend becomes NE'ly with time; good support from the
ensembles.

Watch this space.

Jon.


So "The People" was (were!) right.

Article from "The People" reproduced:

DEADLY ICE STORM THREAT TO BRITAIN

DEADLY ice storms which have killed at least seven people in America could soon
batter Britain.

Nervous forecasters are eyeing weather systems over the north Atlantic and can
only hope we are not hit. Temperatures plummeted to 1F in New York on Friday -
that's a record minus 17C.

Now that weather could hit us within days.

The Met Office said: "It could come across the Atlantic but hopefully it would
lose its ferocity as it moves over the warmer water. Our cold weather is
normally from the north and east, from Scandinavia, whereas New York's problems
are from north Canada and the Arctic."

But, ominously, raw winds whipping Britain today are from the west. Today they
will bring rain and cloud.

But the Met Office spokesman said: "It is looking a lot colder later in the
week."


I hope that the stocks of Vallium are in for all you "nervous" forecasters !

(I'm sure -17 is not a record for NY (State or City not specified) either.

JPG

Jon,

I'm interested in the shallow low on Northwoods 00z T+120
http://users.pandora.be/vlamenboem/gfx/11-45.png
and on the UKMO 00z T+132
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

Off with the flu atm - all I can do is watch rubbish on day time TV and the
next set of progs!

Phil

Jon O Rourke wrote in message
lgate.org...
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif

Operational run suggests blocking Iceland-Greenland area. Northerly flow
by next weekeend becomes NE'ly with time; good support from the
ensembles.

Watch this space.

Jon.

Just as I said in my trend last Friday !
Very cold northeasterly next week now low-moderate confidence.
Could be extremely interesting as looking at the latest GFS (12Z 19th) the
low-level air is very cold with -15 degC at 850 hPa close by.

Now just when did the 1947 winter begin :-)

Will.
--
" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

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and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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"Will" wrote in message
...




Jon O Rourke wrote in message
lgate.org...
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif

Operational run suggests blocking Iceland-Greenland area. Northerly flow
by next weekeend becomes NE'ly with time; good support from the
ensembles.

Watch this space.

Jon.

Just as I said in my trend last Friday !
Very cold northeasterly next week now low-moderate confidence.
Could be extremely interesting as looking at the latest GFS (12Z 19th) the
low-level air is very cold with -15 degC at 850 hPa close by.

Now just when did the 1947 winter begin :-)


Will, you'd better extract that tongue from cheek! :-)

Victor

I do remember writing Summer 2003 off early July.

Stan

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"Will" wrote in message
...




Jon O Rourke wrote in message
lgate.org...
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif

Operational run suggests blocking Iceland-Greenland area. Northerly
flow
by next weekeend becomes NE'ly with time; good support from the
ensembles.

Watch this space.

Jon.

Just as I said in my trend last Friday !
Very cold northeasterly next week now low-moderate confidence.
Could be extremely interesting as looking at the latest GFS (12Z 19th)
the
low-level air is very cold with -15 degC at 850 hPa close by.

Now just when did the 1947 winter begin :-)


Will, you'd better extract that tongue from cheek! :-)

Victor

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Jon,

I'm interested in the shallow low on Northwoods 00z T+120
http://users.pandora.be/vlamenboem/gfx/11-45.png
and on the UKMO 00z T+132
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

(assuming you mean the one running into NW France) yes that did generate a
bit of discussion. EC was even more 'threatening' with the low deeper and
further north... however no obvious significant development on the finalised
12Z MetO charts or the 18Z GFS.


Off with the flu atm - all I can do is watch rubbish on day time TV and
the
next set of progs!


Just as long as you don't get the two confused and end up with the next set
of rubbish progs ;-)
Hope you're feeling better soon, Phil.

Jon.