From Teletext

WARNING OVER BIG FREEZE
Britain is set to plunge into freezing temperatures with heavy snow showers
next week, forecasters have warned.

The cold snap will begin on Sunday in Scotland and is expected to spread
southwards bringing snowfall to parts of England and Wales by Wednesday.

The outbreak of severe wintry weather could bring further widespread travel
chaos on roads and railways and at airports across the country.


RECEIVED: 22/01/2004 11:02:35

That contradicts the latest GFS run that indicates mild South Westerlies on Wednesday.


This is simply another case of "nobody really knows". Its becomming a more 50/50 affair.



--
Brendan DJ Murphy
Rayleigh, Essex, 51:34N 0:36E 30m asl
Castle Point Astronomy Club http://www.cpac.org.uk
"Tom" wrote in message
...
From Teletext

WARNING OVER BIG FREEZE
Britain is set to plunge into freezing temperatures with heavy snow showers
next week, forecasters have warned.

The cold snap will begin on Sunday in Scotland and is expected to spread
southwards bringing snowfall to parts of England and Wales by Wednesday.

The outbreak of severe wintry weather could bring further widespread travel
chaos on roads and railways and at airports across the country.


RECEIVED: 22/01/2004 11:02:35

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
That contradicts the latest GFS run that indicates mild South Westerlies
on Wednesday.


This is simply another case of "nobody really knows". Its becomming a
more 50/50 affair.

Brendan DJ Murphy

Hi Brendan,

After such remarkable consistency within models for the marked change of
type
to a colder, blocked pattern, the last 3 GFS runs have come as a shock. I
imagine the chief at MetO today is having a right old headache.

Joe

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
That contradicts the latest GFS run that indicates mild South Westerlies
on Wednesday.


This is simply another case of "nobody really knows". Its becomming a
more 50/50 affair.


Nobody ever "knows" - so personally I just sit tight and wait and see. I use
the forecast models merely as a directional pointer (eg, "Consensus is it
will turn colder next week") because that's about all these advance models
are good for.

--
Chris
www.ivy-house.net
Swaffham, Norfolk

On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 12:11:39 -0000, "Succorso"
wrote:


Nobody ever "knows" - so personally I just sit tight and wait and see. I use
the forecast models merely as a directional pointer (eg, "Consensus is it
will turn colder next week") because that's about all these advance models
are good for.

Exactly. I personally usually ignore forecasts completely as they are
invariably wrong, especially in situations like this. It's much more
fun to just 'wait and see' - no disappointments then, and some nice
surprises if the weather turns out the way you want it (whether it's
rain, snow, sun, heat, cold, whatever).

Having said that, I've been following this potential cold weather with
some interest as it's piqued my curiosity to see if the forecasts are
right (for a change!). Also, as an 'ex'* snow lover, it's also
fascinating to see the current snow lovers get all over-excited and
then sink into despondency and gloom when it looks like it will be
mild after all. Oh, and the resulting bitchy fighting is rather
amusing to watch too.

* I say an 'ex' snow lover as I used to get pretty excited by the
stuff in my youth as well, but as you get older and more responsible
you see all the problems it causes for people and wildlife so you
don't welcome it as much. I still think it looks great, but otherwise
it's a pain!

What I've noticed recently with GFS is that it is often the first to suggest
a change, but then tends to wobble about mid forecast, before
re-establishing itself closer to time. I've already been to the shop to get
wellies for the kids, so here's hoping!

Shaun Pudwell.

"max" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 12:11:39 -0000, "Succorso"
wrote:


Nobody ever "knows" - so personally I just sit tight and wait and see. I
use
the forecast models merely as a directional pointer (eg, "Consensus is it
will turn colder next week") because that's about all these advance
models
are good for.

Exactly. I personally usually ignore forecasts completely as they are
invariably wrong, especially in situations like this. It's much more
fun to just 'wait and see' - no disappointments then, and some nice
surprises if the weather turns out the way you want it (whether it's
rain, snow, sun, heat, cold, whatever).

Having said that, I've been following this potential cold weather with
some interest as it's piqued my curiosity to see if the forecasts are
right (for a change!). Also, as an 'ex'* snow lover, it's also
fascinating to see the current snow lovers get all over-excited and
then sink into despondency and gloom when it looks like it will be
mild after all. Oh, and the resulting bitchy fighting is rather
amusing to watch too.

* I say an 'ex' snow lover as I used to get pretty excited by the
stuff in my youth as well, but as you get older and more responsible
you see all the problems it causes for people and wildlife so you
don't welcome it as much. I still think it looks great, but otherwise
it's a pain!

Metcheck now going for rain and strong southerly winds and temps of 9
and 10 degrees for Scottish highlands for the second 7 day period
(29th Jan onwards) ........ plus ca change!!

Winter hill walking anybody?

Still waiting with increasingly un-baited breath for what they say
about 6th - 8th Feb when we will actually be up there.....

Paul
Leigh
Lancs