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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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24/1/04 2000

This will be my last one until the regular one next thursday.
Hopefully I'll be sending in snowy [WR]s soon.

Still unsure about rain/snow from low in Channel/north France on Sunday/Monday.
GFS very enthusiastic about precipitation in the "cloud head", Met Office much
less so. Heavy precipiation will mean rain turning to snow down to quite low
levels, light precipitation (as per Met Office) will mean no snow below 300m.

Anyway very cold Arctic air set to flood south on Monday to all parts. The air
is racing off Greenland plateau at about 80 knots and hurtles south initially
with little chance of warming, this is what makes it so special.
Detail of snow still uncertain but some places are going to get 30 cms or more
and others are going to get practically nothing. Best I can do is to say that if
you have a maritime fetch not far upwind or are on a slope facing the wind then
you will get snow showers otherwise you will be relying on synoptic features
like polar lows, cold pools or troughs. All depends crucially on wind direction.
Regions *least* likely to get a lot of snow are those sheltered from winds
NW-NE. eg Dorset, Hampshire, central lowlands Scotland. Those regions, however
will still be bitterly cold, but temperatures over snow cover could easily fall
below -12 deg C.
Devon and Cornwall will get snow showers provide the wind stays N-NW :-)

Hint that on thursday things quieten down a bit in the west with more sunshine.
Conversely Kent and East Anglia become threatened with substantial snow on Weds
and Thurs due to wind possibly coming more directly off the North Sea. London
not immune, particularly eastern side.

Finally it is now looking more likely (40%) that warmer air will encroach from
the SW late Friday/early Saturday, as it meets the very cold air wedge near the
surface appreciable snow turning to rain seems likely. The trouble then becomes
how far and how fast it moves north ?

OK good luck everyone in both mild and cold respects, stay safe and look after
yourselves, and above all else *enjoy* whatever you get, we don't get these cold
spells very often nowadays.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

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www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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