================================================== ===============
This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04.
It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting these
weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble data
had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the time
that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that hint
became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle
forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection of
air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and so the
plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't too
bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I
predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been moderated
given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue.

Now for next week.

High confidence for continuing changeable weather in western and northern parts
with more rain and showery conditions. Moderate confidence that SE England will
remain much drier with less rain and probably quite warm at times. Frost not too
much of a problem except perhaps mid-week and in SE frost hollows.

Sunday will see a spell of rain in all areas giving way to showers from the west
during the day as an active frontal system pushes through. Early finishers in
the London marathon may be OK but late finishers could get wet. I did 3h 53 mins
in 1984 so I know what it is like ! Temperatures should be in the range 10-13
deg C during the race with a lot of cloud so not too bad but possibly a little
humid for some. Increasing south to southwest winds though during the race.

Monday looks like being very showery with a filling low near Scotland. But
turning less windy than on Sunday. Most showers will be in the west and north
with some heavy with hail and thunder. Eastern England seeing some showers by
afternoon, again some heavy.

Tuesday should see a weak ridge come across dampening down the showers giving a
pleasant April day for many.

The rest of the week till Saturday looks like seeing more fronts come across
western and northern parts bringing rain followed by showers. However, SE and
perhaps Eastern England may only see patchy rain and a lot of fine weather and
turning rather warm here as a result. Normal temperatures elsewhere and windy at
times from a SW quarter.

I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and
personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it
and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from a Spring-like Met. Office Dartmoor.

Cheers,

Will.
--
" The best things in life are not things "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will

Perhaps re-introduce the "Trend" forecast towards late Autumn in time for
next winter. Sorry about errors for Easter, did see a little snow on the
tops of the Pennines but nothing below 1500ft but this around the 6th/7th
April


--
Paul Crabtree
Brampton N.E. Cumbria 117m ASL
Climatological Station 7076

http://mysite.freeserve.com/brampton...ome/index.html
"Will" wrote in message
...
================================================== ===============
This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is
based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP
ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04.
It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting
these
weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble
data
had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the
time
that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that
hint
became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle
forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection
of
air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and
so the
plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't
too
bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I
predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been
moderated
given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue.

Now for next week.

High confidence for continuing changeable weather in western and northern
parts
with more rain and showery conditions. Moderate confidence that SE England
will
remain much drier with less rain and probably quite warm at times. Frost
not too
much of a problem except perhaps mid-week and in SE frost hollows.

Sunday will see a spell of rain in all areas giving way to showers from
the west
during the day as an active frontal system pushes through. Early finishers
in
the London marathon may be OK but late finishers could get wet. I did 3h
53 mins
in 1984 so I know what it is like ! Temperatures should be in the range
10-13
deg C during the race with a lot of cloud so not too bad but possibly a
little
humid for some. Increasing south to southwest winds though during the
race.

Monday looks like being very showery with a filling low near Scotland. But
turning less windy than on Sunday. Most showers will be in the west and
north
with some heavy with hail and thunder. Eastern England seeing some showers
by
afternoon, again some heavy.

Tuesday should see a weak ridge come across dampening down the showers
giving a
pleasant April day for many.

The rest of the week till Saturday looks like seeing more fronts come
across
western and northern parts bringing rain followed by showers. However, SE
and
perhaps Eastern England may only see patchy rain and a lot of fine weather
and
turning rather warm here as a result. Normal temperatures elsewhere and
windy at
times from a SW quarter.

I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was
experimental and
personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still
want it
and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating
it.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from a Spring-like Met. Office Dartmoor.

Cheers,

Will.
--
" The best things in life are not things "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

Snip
I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and
personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it
and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it.
Snip

They were always good to get a possible trend with.
Any thoughts on the East coast of yorkshire next weekend?

Simon S wrote:
Snip

I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and
personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it
and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it.

Snip

They were always good to get a possible trend with.

I agree with that. Farmers (and anyone else whose work/hobby/sport is
influenced by the weather) can benefit from knowing what the trend is
likely to be. I would like to see the trend forecast continue.

Perhaps a few caveats will cover the conscience.


--
Howard Neil

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Thanks Simon.

Trend for next weekend in your part of the world is for showers in a
southwesterly flow. Probably fine early mornings but showers developing during
the days, perhaps heavy and thundery. Confidence moderate.

Will.
--
" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Simon S wrote in message ...
Snip
I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental
and
personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want
it
and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it.
Snip

They were always good to get a possible trend with.
Any thoughts on the East coast of yorkshire next weekend?

I certainly always look forward to the second week prognosis. To have an
experienced forecaster give his two penny worth is invaluable. Giving the
"percentage" chances gives me a much better idea of how close to reality the
long term charts are going to be.
Please keep them going!! Your insight into the workings of the weather
combined with the honesty of your forecasts is an invaluable tool in the
understanding of the environment around us.

Mike McMillan

Garden Isle
"Will" wrote in message
...
================================================== ===============
This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is
based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP
ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04.
It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting
these
weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble
data
had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the
time
that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that
hint
became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle
forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection
of
air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and
so the
plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't
too
bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I
predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been
moderated
given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue.

Now for next week.

High confidence for continuing changeable weather in western and northern
parts
with more rain and showery conditions. Moderate confidence that SE England
will
remain much drier with less rain and probably quite warm at times. Frost
not too
much of a problem except perhaps mid-week and in SE frost hollows.

Sunday will see a spell of rain in all areas giving way to showers from
the west
during the day as an active frontal system pushes through. Early finishers
in
the London marathon may be OK but late finishers could get wet. I did 3h
53 mins
in 1984 so I know what it is like ! Temperatures should be in the range
10-13
deg C during the race with a lot of cloud so not too bad but possibly a
little
humid for some. Increasing south to southwest winds though during the
race.

Monday looks like being very showery with a filling low near Scotland. But
turning less windy than on Sunday. Most showers will be in the west and
north
with some heavy with hail and thunder. Eastern England seeing some showers
by
afternoon, again some heavy.

Tuesday should see a weak ridge come across dampening down the showers
giving a
pleasant April day for many.

The rest of the week till Saturday looks like seeing more fronts come
across
western and northern parts bringing rain followed by showers. However, SE
and
perhaps Eastern England may only see patchy rain and a lot of fine weather
and
turning rather warm here as a result. Normal temperatures elsewhere and
windy at
times from a SW quarter.

I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was
experimental and
personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still
want it
and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating
it.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from a Spring-like Met. Office Dartmoor.

Cheers,

Will.
--
" The best things in life are not things "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

"Will" wrote in message
...
================================================== ===============
This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is
based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP
ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04.
It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting
these
weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble
data
had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the
time
that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that
hint
became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle
forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection
of
air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and
so the
plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't
too
bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I
predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been
moderated
given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue.

I for one was quite happy with the weather as it happened in Edinburgh for
my easter break, so don't beat yourself for it going awry.

Rob