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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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================================================== ===============
This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others. ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04. It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting these weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble data had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the time that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that hint became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection of air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and so the plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't too bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been moderated given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue. Now for next week. High confidence for continuing changeable weather in western and northern parts with more rain and showery conditions. Moderate confidence that SE England will remain much drier with less rain and probably quite warm at times. Frost not too much of a problem except perhaps mid-week and in SE frost hollows. Sunday will see a spell of rain in all areas giving way to showers from the west during the day as an active frontal system pushes through. Early finishers in the London marathon may be OK but late finishers could get wet. I did 3h 53 mins in 1984 so I know what it is like ! Temperatures should be in the range 10-13 deg C during the race with a lot of cloud so not too bad but possibly a little humid for some. Increasing south to southwest winds though during the race. Monday looks like being very showery with a filling low near Scotland. But turning less windy than on Sunday. Most showers will be in the west and north with some heavy with hail and thunder. Eastern England seeing some showers by afternoon, again some heavy. Tuesday should see a weak ridge come across dampening down the showers giving a pleasant April day for many. The rest of the week till Saturday looks like seeing more fronts come across western and northern parts bringing rain followed by showers. However, SE and perhaps Eastern England may only see patchy rain and a lot of fine weather and turning rather warm here as a result. Normal temperatures elsewhere and windy at times from a SW quarter. I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it. As always this and previous forecasts are available at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm This forecast was brought to you from a Spring-like Met. Office Dartmoor. Cheers, Will. -- " The best things in life are not things " ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
#2
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Will
Perhaps re-introduce the "Trend" forecast towards late Autumn in time for next winter. Sorry about errors for Easter, did see a little snow on the tops of the Pennines but nothing below 1500ft but this around the 6th/7th April -- Paul Crabtree Brampton N.E. Cumbria 117m ASL Climatological Station 7076 http://mysite.freeserve.com/brampton...ome/index.html "Will" wrote in message ... ================================================== =============== This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others. ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04. It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting these weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble data had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the time that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that hint became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection of air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and so the plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't too bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been moderated given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue. Now for next week. High confidence for continuing changeable weather in western and northern parts with more rain and showery conditions. Moderate confidence that SE England will remain much drier with less rain and probably quite warm at times. Frost not too much of a problem except perhaps mid-week and in SE frost hollows. Sunday will see a spell of rain in all areas giving way to showers from the west during the day as an active frontal system pushes through. Early finishers in the London marathon may be OK but late finishers could get wet. I did 3h 53 mins in 1984 so I know what it is like ! Temperatures should be in the range 10-13 deg C during the race with a lot of cloud so not too bad but possibly a little humid for some. Increasing south to southwest winds though during the race. Monday looks like being very showery with a filling low near Scotland. But turning less windy than on Sunday. Most showers will be in the west and north with some heavy with hail and thunder. Eastern England seeing some showers by afternoon, again some heavy. Tuesday should see a weak ridge come across dampening down the showers giving a pleasant April day for many. The rest of the week till Saturday looks like seeing more fronts come across western and northern parts bringing rain followed by showers. However, SE and perhaps Eastern England may only see patchy rain and a lot of fine weather and turning rather warm here as a result. Normal temperatures elsewhere and windy at times from a SW quarter. I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it. As always this and previous forecasts are available at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm This forecast was brought to you from a Spring-like Met. Office Dartmoor. Cheers, Will. -- " The best things in life are not things " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- |
#3
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Snip
I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it. Snip They were always good to get a possible trend with. Any thoughts on the East coast of yorkshire next weekend? |
#4
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Simon S wrote:
Snip I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it. Snip They were always good to get a possible trend with. I agree with that. Farmers (and anyone else whose work/hobby/sport is influenced by the weather) can benefit from knowing what the trend is likely to be. I would like to see the trend forecast continue. Perhaps a few caveats will cover the conscience. -- Howard Neil |
#5
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![]() ================================================== ================== This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author. Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do. ================================================== ================== Thanks Simon. Trend for next weekend in your part of the world is for showers in a southwesterly flow. Probably fine early mornings but showers developing during the days, perhaps heavy and thundery. Confidence moderate. Will. -- " A cup is most useful when empty " ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Simon S wrote in message ... Snip I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it. Snip They were always good to get a possible trend with. Any thoughts on the East coast of yorkshire next weekend? |
#6
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I certainly always look forward to the second week prognosis. To have an
experienced forecaster give his two penny worth is invaluable. Giving the "percentage" chances gives me a much better idea of how close to reality the long term charts are going to be. Please keep them going!! Your insight into the workings of the weather combined with the honesty of your forecasts is an invaluable tool in the understanding of the environment around us. Mike McMillan Garden Isle "Will" wrote in message ... ================================================== =============== This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others. ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04. It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting these weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble data had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the time that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that hint became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection of air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and so the plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't too bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been moderated given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue. Now for next week. High confidence for continuing changeable weather in western and northern parts with more rain and showery conditions. Moderate confidence that SE England will remain much drier with less rain and probably quite warm at times. Frost not too much of a problem except perhaps mid-week and in SE frost hollows. Sunday will see a spell of rain in all areas giving way to showers from the west during the day as an active frontal system pushes through. Early finishers in the London marathon may be OK but late finishers could get wet. I did 3h 53 mins in 1984 so I know what it is like ! Temperatures should be in the range 10-13 deg C during the race with a lot of cloud so not too bad but possibly a little humid for some. Increasing south to southwest winds though during the race. Monday looks like being very showery with a filling low near Scotland. But turning less windy than on Sunday. Most showers will be in the west and north with some heavy with hail and thunder. Eastern England seeing some showers by afternoon, again some heavy. Tuesday should see a weak ridge come across dampening down the showers giving a pleasant April day for many. The rest of the week till Saturday looks like seeing more fronts come across western and northern parts bringing rain followed by showers. However, SE and perhaps Eastern England may only see patchy rain and a lot of fine weather and turning rather warm here as a result. Normal temperatures elsewhere and windy at times from a SW quarter. I have now stopped issuing the 2 weekly trend forecast. It was experimental and personal verification has left me unsatisfied. However, if people still want it and found it useful could they let me know and I'll consider re-instating it. As always this and previous forecasts are available at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm This forecast was brought to you from a Spring-like Met. Office Dartmoor. Cheers, Will. -- " The best things in life are not things " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- |
#7
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"Will" wrote in message
... ================================================== =============== This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others. ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 18/04/04 to Saturday 24/04/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 15/04/04 1900 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten First a few words about my forecast for Easter issued on Friday 02/04/04. It was probably the worst forecast I have ever prepared since starting these weekly discussions. At the time of issue most forecast models and ensemble data had been going solidly for a cold northerly plunge with only a hint at the time that things may not turn out that way. On the next day - Saturday that hint became stronger but then it was too late of course. Also first principle forecasting gave a northerly plunge over the UK with strong warm advection of air to the west of Greenland, in the event this did not come to pass and so the plunge of cold air went to the east. Having said that most people weren't too bothered, with the weather turning out to be much more pleasant than I predicted. In retrospect perhaps my confidence level should have been moderated given the few hints that it may not come off at time of issue. I for one was quite happy with the weather as it happened in Edinburgh for my easter break, so don't beat yourself for it going awry. Rob |
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