Hello from Leeds again.

Rain this afternoon was light but now in heavy pulses. It was supposed to be
drying out this morning (according to last night's forecast, now changed!)
as the front moved east. Instead a trough has appeared on the latest chart
(from Wetterzentrale) running down central Britain in a line north south.

Any interesting developments along this trough?


Dorian Speakman.

"D Speakman" wrote Hello from Leeds again.

Rain this afternoon was light but now in heavy pulses. It was supposed
to be
drying out this morning (according to last night's forecast, now
changed!)
as the front moved east. Instead a trough has appeared on the latest
chart
(from Wetterzentrale) running down central Britain in a line north
south.

Any interesting developments along this trough?

I can see the development on the radar over the past few hours. It was
forecast to dry up here this afternoon. Instead, an increasingly heavy
drizzle has set in. We don't often see that down here - my 85 year old
mum in Durham always calls it "the sort of rain that really wets you".

Well, we always know what she means.


- Tom
Blackmore, SW Essex.

Yes, I was about to post on this. it now seems to be moving S.E and
intensifying rather than NE as forecast. Will the BBC News 24 presenters
spot this. Not if the Bank Holiday forecast was anything to go by!

Dave
"Tom Bennett" wrote in message
...
"D Speakman" wrote Hello from Leeds again.

Rain this afternoon was light but now in heavy pulses. It was supposed
to be
drying out this morning (according to last night's forecast, now
changed!)
as the front moved east. Instead a trough has appeared on the latest
chart
(from Wetterzentrale) running down central Britain in a line north
south.

Any interesting developments along this trough?

I can see the development on the radar over the past few hours. It was
forecast to dry up here this afternoon. Instead, an increasingly heavy
drizzle has set in. We don't often see that down here - my 85 year old
mum in Durham always calls it "the sort of rain that really wets you".

Well, we always know what she means.


- Tom
Blackmore, SW Essex.

Dave
"Tom Bennett" wrote in message
...
"D Speakman" wrote Hello from Leeds again.

Rain this afternoon was light but now in heavy pulses. It was
supposed
to be
drying out this morning (according to last night's forecast, now
changed!)
as the front moved east. Instead a trough has appeared on the latest
chart
(from Wetterzentrale) running down central Britain in a line north
south.

Any interesting developments along this trough?

I can see the development on the radar over the past few hours. It
was
forecast to dry up here this afternoon. Instead, an increasingly
heavy
drizzle has set in. We don't often see that down here - my 85 year
old
mum in Durham always calls it "the sort of rain that really wets you".

Well, we always know what she means.


- Tom
Blackmore, SW Essex.

"Dave. C" wrote in message
news
Yes, I was about to post on this. it now seems to be moving S.E and
intensifying rather than NE as forecast. Will the BBC News 24 presenters
spot this. Not if the Bank Holiday forecast was anything to go by!

Will the presenters spot this ? If you'd have watched BBC1 1330 weather
before Neighbours you'd have spotted it :-p

It seems the showers/rain are being prolonged, or even enhanced, due to
dynamic forcing aloft in the left exit region of the upper jet -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn0616.gif
Something very difficult to pin down even at a short lead time.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/BW/...11200BW1_g.jpg - shows the dark
slot with the associated PV running parallel to the E coast

Joe

"D Speakman" wrote in message
...
Hello from Leeds again.

Rain this afternoon was light but now in heavy pulses. It was supposed to be
drying out this morning (according to last night's forecast, now changed!)
as the front moved east. Instead a trough has appeared on the latest chart
(from Wetterzentrale) running down central Britain in a line north south.

Any interesting developments along this trough?

I have been less than impressed with the forecasts over the
Bank Holiday weekend. We've had the rain alright, just never
in the manner in which it was forecast.
Take today for example, although it's a beautiful evening now,
the rain continued well into the afternoon when it was supossed
to clear by mid-morning at the latest.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

If you'd have watched BBC1 1330 weather
before Neighbours you'd have spotted it :-p

It seems the showers/rain are being prolonged, or even enhanced, due to
dynamic forcing aloft in the left exit region of the upper jet -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn0616.gif
Something very difficult to pin down even at a short lead time.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/BW/...11200BW1_g.jpg - shows the dark
slot with the associated PV running parallel to the E coast

Joe

All very well Joe, but not the case according to 7.00 pm forecast on News
24. Still forecasting a mainly sunny evening in the South East with no
mention of rain. It's now heavy rain here at 10.30pm and a major feature has
now appeared on the latest forecast chart. My post at 17.30 predicted the
rain moving SE just from the radar.I'm not having a go at forecasters per
say, I know how difficult it is. But telling us what the weather will be
after it's arrived isn't a forecast.

Dave

"Dave. C" wrote in message
...

If you'd have watched BBC1 1330 weather
before Neighbours you'd have spotted it :-p

It seems the showers/rain are being prolonged, or even enhanced, due
to
dynamic forcing aloft in the left exit region of the upper jet -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn0616.gif
Something very difficult to pin down even at a short lead time.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/BW/...11200BW1_g.jpg - shows the
dark
slot with the associated PV running parallel to the E coast

Joe

All very well Joe, but not the case according to 7.00 pm forecast on
News
24. Still forecasting a mainly sunny evening in the South East with no
mention of rain. It's now heavy rain here at 10.30pm and a major feature
has
now appeared on the latest forecast chart. My post at 17.30 predicted
the
rain moving SE just from the radar.I'm not having a go at forecasters
per
say, I know how difficult it is. But telling us what the weather will be
after it's arrived isn't a forecast.

Dave

I see your point, Dave. A look out of the window does help. When things
cleared up here about 17Z the temperature shot up to 17 degC from 13 degC,
it felt a lot less humid too. I watched a line of TCu go up over the Peak
District to my E/SE, you could visibly see the turrets growing. It seems
they have produced a sferic or two. An interesting day, we are now under
clearish skies.

I see GFS 12Z DT for Tuesday has 850hPa temperatures 15 degC for SE
parts, start of summer ?

ATB, Joe

see GFS 12Z DT for Tuesday has 850hPa temperatures 15 degC for SE
parts, start of summer ?

ATB, Joe
The current London ENS seems to favour a breakdown by Tuesday (not wishing to preempt Martin).It
looks like a thundery breakdown is possible Sunday evening as high theta w air is advected out of
Spain with cyclonic development.Development of MCS s ,homegrown or out of France seems possible,even
allowing for the GFS overdoing the CAPE,

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
see GFS 12Z DT for Tuesday has 850hPa temperatures 15 degC for SE
parts, start of summer ?

ATB, Joe
The current London ENS seems to favour a breakdown by Tuesday (not
wishing to preempt Martin).It
looks like a thundery breakdown is possible Sunday evening as high theta
w air is advected out of
Spain with cyclonic development.Development of MCS s ,homegrown or out
of France seems possible,even
allowing for the GFS overdoing the CAPE,

David,

Steady on now, predicting MCSs at that lead time !? ;-) All the models do
look very plumey indeed, let's enjoy the hot, sunny weather it brings with
it first, if you like that sort of thing.

ATB, Joe

Steady on now, predicting MCSs at that lead time !? ;-)

Predicting-moi?

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)