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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Just had a *very* close look at all the outputs for Tuesday/Wednesday's low from
the latest GFS (1200) runs and it *potentially* looks very very nasty indeed for
the time of year.

We have the prospect of
(a) Very heavy and prolonged rain to the north/northwest of the low giving the
potential for flooding due to rapid run-off from hard ground.

(b) Potential thunderstorms in unstable sector to the south of the low with
obvious implications for outdoor activities and

(c) A possibility of a "Sting jet" bringing a narrow swathe of storm force winds
in the SW quadrant of the low. SW England is under obvious threat from this and
with trees in full leaf the effects could be disasterous.

I must stress that these are only possibilities which I *personally* rate at 50%
of *one* of them coming off. It all depends on phasing of the upper trough with
the developing low, and of course, timing. There is a very distinct possibility
of later deepening which would place all the "action" in the North Sea. The 1200
GMT MetO global model run labelled "UKMO" on 'wetterzentrale' more than hints at
this.

So there it is a warning of the *possibilities*.

Either way we can be much more certain (80%) as I said in my weekly forecast
last thursday of the long dry spell over England and Wales finally coming to an
end.

Cheers,

Will.
--

" Come on England "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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(c) A possibility of a "Sting jet" bringing a narrow swathe of storm force
winds
in the SW quadrant of the low. SW England is under obvious threat from this
and
with trees in full leaf the effects could be disasterous.

Will,

You are quite right about the effect of wind on fully-leafed trees.
Only last Thursday while hacking round a local golf course, a
friend and I both witnessed a 5-foot length of branch, complete
with oak leaves crash to the ground in gusts of only 30kt or so.

The loud 'crack' as the branch separated from the trunk is
something I won't forget in a hurry. I would like to make it
clear that this incident was not caused by one of my stray
golf shots!

It was quite likely that this part of the tree was unusually weak,
but there were other smaller branches lying about with new leaf
attached. Following a long period of light winds, any significant
wind speeds now may well reinforce your thought stated above.

Rainfall so far this month stands at 1.5mm after a couple of
moderate showers (Friday evening and this afternoon).

Nigel (Romsey, Hampshire)

I can't seem to find Will's original post on the forum about Wednesdays's
Low. I would be interested to read it - can anyone point me in the right
direction?

Thanks,

Jeremy

"Nigel Paice" wrote in message
...
(c) A possibility of a "Sting jet" bringing a narrow swathe of storm
force
winds
in the SW quadrant of the low. SW England is under obvious threat from
this
and
with trees in full leaf the effects could be disasterous.

Will,

You are quite right about the effect of wind on fully-leafed trees.
Only last Thursday while hacking round a local golf course, a
friend and I both witnessed a 5-foot length of branch, complete
with oak leaves crash to the ground in gusts of only 30kt or so.

The loud 'crack' as the branch separated from the trunk is
something I won't forget in a hurry. I would like to make it
clear that this incident was not caused by one of my stray
golf shots!

It was quite likely that this part of the tree was unusually weak,
but there were other smaller branches lying about with new leaf
attached. Following a long period of light winds, any significant
wind speeds now may well reinforce your thought stated above.

Rainfall so far this month stands at 1.5mm after a couple of
moderate showers (Friday evening and this afternoon).

Nigel (Romsey, Hampshire)

Jeremy Handscomb wrote in message ...
:I can't seem to find Will's original post on the forum about Wednesdays's
:Low. I would be interested to read it - can anyone point me in the right
:direction?

This was Will's post made at 22.32 on Saturday.

Colin Youngs
Brussels
_______________________________

"Just had a *very* close look at all the outputs for Tuesday/Wednesday's low
from
the latest GFS (1200) runs and it *potentially* looks very very nasty indeed
for
the time of year.

We have the prospect of

(a) Very heavy and prolonged rain to the north/northwest of the low giving
the
potential for flooding due to rapid run-off from hard ground.

(b) Potential thunderstorms in unstable sector to the south of the low with
obvious implications for outdoor activities and

(c) A possibility of a "Sting jet" bringing a narrow swathe of storm force
winds
in the SW quadrant of the low. SW England is under obvious threat from this
and
with trees in full leaf the effects could be disastrous.

I must stress that these are only possibilities which I *personally* rate at
50%
of *one* of them coming off. It all depends on phasing of the upper trough
with
the developing low, and of course, timing. There is a very distinct
possibility
of later deepening which would place all the "action" in the North Sea. The
1200
GMT MetO global model run labelled "UKMO" on 'wetterzentrale' more than
hints at
this.

So there it is a warning of the *possibilities*.

Either way we can be much more certain (80%) as I said in my weekly forecast
last Thursday of the long dry spell over England and Wales finally coming to
an
end.

Cheers,
Will."