Prolonged thunderstorm here from about 1430 to 1730 BST. Thunder almost
continuous throughout the period with lots of lightning. Although my
field of view is quite limited because of trees, C-G flashes were
visible every couple of minutes throughout the storm. The rain was
nothing exceptional being mostly moderate with occasional bursts of
heavy and a few brief downpours. Rainfall during the storm totalled 21
mm. It was the most notable TS here for some years. Had it occurred at
night it would have been a very spectacular "son et lumiere".

On BBCTV SouthEast this morning Jo Farrow predicted torrential downpours
during the morning clearing in the afternoon. It turned out the exact
opposite. I played a golf match this morning in fine weather. The
forecast was, of course, recorded sometime in the early hours. By the
time it was broadcast the area of storms she was talking about had
tracked northwards further to the west than expected and were over the
Bristol/Cotswolds area, not affecting the SE. At the golf club it was
the Met Office that was being "bad-mouthed" for getting it wrong again.
The real culprit, of course, is the BBC for churning out forecasts that
are out of date by the time they are broadcast. If the Met Office cares,
perhaps they should refuse to allow pre-recorded forecasts to be
transmitted.

Norman.
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
18 Kings Road
Chalfont St Giles
England tel: 01494 870220

At the golf club it was
the Met Office that was being "bad-mouthed" for getting it wrong again.
The real culprit, of course, is the BBC for churning out forecasts that
are out of date by the time they are broadcast. If the Met Office cares,
perhaps they should refuse to allow pre-recorded forecasts to be
transmitted.

Norman.

The opinion, over the years, has been hardening in my mind that the Met
Office *don't* care, as long as they get paid. This opinion is shared by a
"source" closer to the Met Office than I am. The evidence is overwhelming,
anyway, whether you talk to anyone or not. No self-respecting institution
would allow its products to be presented by those who do not understand them,
however perfect their teeth.
But I'm envious of your storm, Norman. Here in Warlingham we only had a
brief large-drop downpour with distant grouchy rumbles. The sky was yellow
with haze and the effect was rather eerie, exotic and sleazy almost. It was
exactly the kind of weather that got me interested in the first place as a
10-yr-old in the fifties. I used to love it, and still do.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 556 ft.

"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
At the golf club it was
the Met Office that was being "bad-mouthed" for getting it wrong again.
The real culprit, of course, is the BBC for churning out forecasts that
are out of date by the time they are broadcast. If the Met Office cares,
perhaps they should refuse to allow pre-recorded forecasts to be
transmitted.

Norman.

The opinion, over the years, has been hardening in my mind that the
Met
Office *don't* care, as long as they get paid. This opinion is shared by
a
"source" closer to the Met Office than I am. The evidence is
overwhelming,
anyway, whether you talk to anyone or not. No self-respecting institution
would allow its products to be presented by those who do not understand
them,
however perfect their teeth.
But I'm envious of your storm, Norman. Here in Warlingham we only
had a
brief large-drop downpour with distant grouchy rumbles. The sky was
yellow
with haze and the effect was rather eerie, exotic and sleazy almost. It
was
exactly the kind of weather that got me interested in the first place as a
10-yr-old in the fifties. I used to love it, and still do.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 556 ft.

I mentioned the out of date pre recorded weather forecasts to my friend who
works on News 24. He tells me that they are forever telling the weather
people their forecasts are way out of date. It would appear that it is the
responsibility of the weather department to record and change them!!

I agree.
The BBC 6am morning forecast on BBC1 is always the same as the previous
evenings forecast. I don't know why they dont give us an up to date one.
Mike


"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
Prolonged thunderstorm here from about 1430 to 1730 BST. Thunder almost
continuous throughout the period with lots of lightning. Although my
field of view is quite limited because of trees, C-G flashes were
visible every couple of minutes throughout the storm. The rain was
nothing exceptional being mostly moderate with occasional bursts of
heavy and a few brief downpours. Rainfall during the storm totalled 21
mm. It was the most notable TS here for some years. Had it occurred at
night it would have been a very spectacular "son et lumiere".

On BBCTV SouthEast this morning Jo Farrow predicted torrential downpours
during the morning clearing in the afternoon. It turned out the exact
opposite. I played a golf match this morning in fine weather. The
forecast was, of course, recorded sometime in the early hours. By the
time it was broadcast the area of storms she was talking about had
tracked northwards further to the west than expected and were over the
Bristol/Cotswolds area, not affecting the SE. At the golf club it was
the Met Office that was being "bad-mouthed" for getting it wrong again.
The real culprit, of course, is the BBC for churning out forecasts that
are out of date by the time they are broadcast. If the Met Office cares,
perhaps they should refuse to allow pre-recorded forecasts to be
transmitted.

Norman.
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
18 Kings Road
Chalfont St Giles
England tel: 01494 870220

On Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:56:28 GMT, Norman Lynagh
inspired by Deep Thought wrote:

Prolonged thunderstorm here from about 1430 to 1730 BST. Thunder almost
continuous throughout the period with lots of lightning. Although my
field of view is quite limited because of trees, C-G flashes were
visible every couple of minutes throughout the storm. The rain was
nothing exceptional being mostly moderate with occasional bursts of
heavy and a few brief downpours. Rainfall during the storm totalled 21
mm. It was the most notable TS here for some years. Had it occurred at
night it would have been a very spectacular "son et lumiere"

Yes Norman, it was quite some storm, and indeed would have been a superb sight
at night. There were distant "growly" rumbles of thunder here for about an hour
from about 2.30pm, but by 3:30pm things had really hotted up here on the
Chilterns just outside High Wycombe. Almost continuous thunder was coming from
at least 3 different cells, and we had approx. an hour of continuous thundery
rain. There were at least 15 C-G strikes less than 400 metres from my house,
some of them were very spectacular sparks too - extending in two or three
directions at once.

I estimated we had approx 1.5 inches of rain in an hour, and many local roads
were impassable because of floodwater, and there was a lot of debris washed onto
the roads by the fast-running streams of run-off water. Rarely do we get storms
here, usually they miss us altogether but when we do, Oh Boy! Do we get one! It
was the best storm here for at least 5 years - if not longer. It was still
rumbling round at 5:30pm.

Two things are of note about this storm.
1) According to the satellite pictures on www.wetterzentrale.de, these storms
were home brewed: i.e. they didn't blow in, they formed on the spot - possibly
caused by a localised trough-like disturbance or breakdown of a mid-level
inversion.

2) According to a friend of mine who has lived here since 1959, he says we used
to get a lot of this type of storm round here. He says (and after observing
yesterday's fireworks I agree with him) that there was a gentle south-east wind,
and the prevailing wind has rarely been in the south-east during the last 10
years or so, so the scenario for good storms here seems to be that some of
London's heat is wafted towards us on SE winds, and then with the right
conditions, all hell breaks loose when the said hot humid air is lifted as it
hits the Chilterns. Not a Spanish plume as such, but a London plume!!

Nigel

Aagh! Every time I learn something new... it pushes something old out of my brain!

,He says (and after observing
yesterday's fireworks I agree with him) that there was a gentle south-east wind,
and the prevailing wind has rarely been in the south-east during the last 10
years or so, so the scenario for good storms here seems to be that some of
London's heat is wafted towards us on SE winds, and then with the right
conditions, all hell breaks loose when the said hot humid air is lifted as it
hits the Chilterns. Not a Spanish plume as such, but a London plume!!

Nigel
Nice idea.
Output from the GFS and the 22km NMM suggested a cyclonic surface circulation S or SW of London
under the upper vortex.The first two cells seem to have triggered over SW london (see 1148 NOAA
image),so that fits.
The rest of the line out to the Severn grew in a break in the cloud cover (also see 1148pass).
ther,weaker cells triggered due south of London over Kent or Sussex.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/abin/pro...roject.ch2.jpg
( Can't get into BB @Wokingham ATM )

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)

"Chris Mantle" wrote in message
...

"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
At the golf club it was
the Met Office that was being "bad-mouthed" for getting it wrong again.
The real culprit, of course, is the BBC for churning out forecasts that
are out of date by the time they are broadcast. If the Met Office
cares,
perhaps they should refuse to allow pre-recorded forecasts to be
transmitted.

Hi Chris

Sorry this is OT, but was there a storm in Bedford yesterday, unfortunately
I was out of town so am unaware.

cheers
J

"Nigel Morgan" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:56:28 GMT, Norman Lynagh

inspired by Deep Thought wrote:

Prolonged thunderstorm here from about 1430 to 1730 BST. Thunder almost
continuous throughout the period with lots of lightning. Although my
field of view is quite limited because of trees, C-G flashes were
visible every couple of minutes throughout the storm. The rain was
nothing exceptional being mostly moderate with occasional bursts of
heavy and a few brief downpours. Rainfall during the storm totalled 21
mm. It was the most notable TS here for some years. Had it occurred at
night it would have been a very spectacular "son et lumiere"


It was impressive in St Albans as well with a total of 24.1mm of rain
falling over a similar time period; today has been largely sunny and
everything has dried out rapidly. Since the soil here is glacial gravel it
acts like a soakaway which can affect plants in the garden which can suffer
from the dry conditions. Even plants used to a Mediterranean climate can
struggle.

Alan

The opinion, over the years, has been hardening in my mind that the Met
Office *don't* care, as long as they get paid. This opinion is shared by a
"source" closer to the Met Office than I am. The evidence is overwhelming,
anyway, whether you talk to anyone or not. No self-respecting institution
would allow its products to be presented by those who do not understand them,
however perfect their teeth.

I have been sent the following email by a Met Office member of staff, who
must remain anonymous: - -

I am not allowed to reply to the newsgroup, but I really
cannot let this pass. So please forgive the personal
reply, and please note that this is my own opinion
and I offer that alone, not corporately.

Firstly, the Met Office cannot care about anything. The
concept is nonsense, because the Met Office is a diverse
group of individuals with their own opinions, not a
single or uniform thing.

Maybe you do mean the individual people who compose the
Met Office. I, for one, care a great deal about the work
I and my colleagues do. I am surrounded by like-minded
people. I know none who are cynical about what we do. I
am refering mainly to my colleagues here in R&D, but also
to forecasters on the Operations side. I know cynicism
when I see it, ditto laziness, lackadaisicalness and so
on. If these are present here, they are in a small minority
of people. We work hard and work well. We want to serve
the public interest, and do so.

I am not in touch with senior management, so I don't know
what they are like. But please also note that the new
CEO, David Rogers, claims to want to push the Met Office
back where it belongs, to a chiefly public-service role.
I know no good reason not to believe him, at this time.

I invite you to quote this rebuttal, anonymously, to
u.s.w.


As for those presenters' putative ignorance, I just don't
know if they know what they are talking about - do you
have evidence that they do not? And do you know if they
work for the Met Office or for the TV channels?

In my opinion, we should save some of our reproach for
the presenters of "Today" on Radio 4 who plainly think
the weather forecast is a waste of their time.


sent to Tudor Hughes.

In message , TudorHgh
writes

The opinion, over the years, has been hardening in my mind that the Met
Office *don't* care, as long as they get paid. This opinion is shared by a
"source" closer to the Met Office than I am. The evidence is overwhelming,
anyway, whether you talk to anyone or not. No self-respecting institution
would allow its products to be presented by those who do not understand them,
however perfect their teeth.

I have been sent the following email by a Met Office member of staff, who
must remain anonymous: - -

I am not allowed to reply to the newsgroup, but I really
cannot let this pass. So please forgive the personal
reply, and please note that this is my own opinion
and I offer that alone, not corporately.

Firstly, the Met Office cannot care about anything. The
concept is nonsense, because the Met Office is a diverse
group of individuals with their own opinions, not a
single or uniform thing.

That seems to me to be a bizarre view. Any organisation, represented by
its Board of Management, must have a corporate policy on matters such as
customer care. To leave this solely to the whim of individual employees
would be unacceptable.

Does the Board of Management of the Met Office care about the quality of
product being broadcast in its name on TV and radio? My impression is
that they do not, as Tudor has said.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England