El Nino Expected To Develop During Next 3 Mos - NOAA



El Nino conditions are expected to develop during
the next three months, NOAA said in its latest monthly El Nino/La Nina
discussion released Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that sea
surface temperature anomalies have increased and expanded over the
equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past month indicating possible early
stages of El Nino development.
It is likely that the sea surface temperature anomalies will remain at
or above +0.5 degrees Celsius through the end of 2004, which is the
threshold for El Nino events, according to NOAA.
The forecast models that NOAA uses for predicting El Nino events are
divided nearly in half as to whether El Nino will develop over the next
three to six months or if neutral conditions will prevail.
GWS believes that even if the current warm anomalies are the early
stages of El Nino and it persists late into this year, it would be a very
marginal El Nino event at best. Therefore GWS does not think that world
weather patterns later this year will see much, if any, impact from El Nino.

I thought there was a post on here a few months ago suggesting that there
was unlikely to be another El-Nino for at least two years. Probably better
just to dip your big toe in the water!

Shaun Pudwell.


"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
El Nino Expected To Develop During Next 3 Mos - NOAA



El Nino conditions are expected to develop during
the next three months, NOAA said in its latest monthly El Nino/La Nina
discussion released Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that sea
surface temperature anomalies have increased and expanded over the
equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past month indicating possible early
stages of El Nino development.
It is likely that the sea surface temperature anomalies will remain
at
or above +0.5 degrees Celsius through the end of 2004, which is the
threshold for El Nino events, according to NOAA.
The forecast models that NOAA uses for predicting El Nino events are
divided nearly in half as to whether El Nino will develop over the next
three to six months or if neutral conditions will prevail.
GWS believes that even if the current warm anomalies are the early
stages of El Nino and it persists late into this year, it would be a very
marginal El Nino event at best. Therefore GWS does not think that world
weather patterns later this year will see much, if any, impact from El
Nino.

You're both right (sort of) - there are multiple different definitions
of El Nino floating around - the US uses a cutoff of +0.5 C whereas in
Australia we use 0.8. Most forecast models are indicating that sea
surface temperature anomalies will peak somewhere in the 0.5 to 0.8 C
range around the end of the year (thereby being an El Nino on the
American definition, but not on ours), although the possibility of
going beyond 0.8 couldn't be ruled out.

Much the same thing happened late last year, although in the end the
three-month SST anomalies in late 2003 didn't quite reach 0.5 C.

Whether or not an event of this type (if it happens) would have any
significant consequences is another question altogether.

Blair Trewin
National Climate Centre
Australian Bureau of Meteorology

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message ...
I thought there was a post on here a few months ago suggesting that there
was unlikely to be another El-Nino for at least two years. Probably better
just to dip your big toe in the water!

Shaun Pudwell.


"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
El Nino Expected To Develop During Next 3 Mos - NOAA



El Nino conditions are expected to develop during
the next three months, NOAA said in its latest monthly El Nino/La Nina
discussion released Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that sea
surface temperature anomalies have increased and expanded over the
equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past month indicating possible early
stages of El Nino development.
It is likely that the sea surface temperature anomalies will remain
at
or above +0.5 degrees Celsius through the end of 2004, which is the
threshold for El Nino events, according to NOAA.
The forecast models that NOAA uses for predicting El Nino events are
divided nearly in half as to whether El Nino will develop over the next
three to six months or if neutral conditions will prevail.
GWS believes that even if the current warm anomalies are the early
stages of El Nino and it persists late into this year, it would be a very
marginal El Nino event at best. Therefore GWS does not think that world
weather patterns later this year will see much, if any, impact from El
Nino.