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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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El Nino Expected To Develop During Next 3 Mos - NOAA
El Nino conditions are expected to develop during the next three months, NOAA said in its latest monthly El Nino/La Nina discussion released Thursday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that sea surface temperature anomalies have increased and expanded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past month indicating possible early stages of El Nino development. It is likely that the sea surface temperature anomalies will remain at or above +0.5 degrees Celsius through the end of 2004, which is the threshold for El Nino events, according to NOAA. The forecast models that NOAA uses for predicting El Nino events are divided nearly in half as to whether El Nino will develop over the next three to six months or if neutral conditions will prevail. GWS believes that even if the current warm anomalies are the early stages of El Nino and it persists late into this year, it would be a very marginal El Nino event at best. Therefore GWS does not think that world weather patterns later this year will see much, if any, impact from El Nino. |
#2
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I thought there was a post on here a few months ago suggesting that there
was unlikely to be another El-Nino for at least two years. Probably better just to dip your big toe in the water! Shaun Pudwell. "Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message ... El Nino Expected To Develop During Next 3 Mos - NOAA El Nino conditions are expected to develop during the next three months, NOAA said in its latest monthly El Nino/La Nina discussion released Thursday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that sea surface temperature anomalies have increased and expanded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past month indicating possible early stages of El Nino development. It is likely that the sea surface temperature anomalies will remain at or above +0.5 degrees Celsius through the end of 2004, which is the threshold for El Nino events, according to NOAA. The forecast models that NOAA uses for predicting El Nino events are divided nearly in half as to whether El Nino will develop over the next three to six months or if neutral conditions will prevail. GWS believes that even if the current warm anomalies are the early stages of El Nino and it persists late into this year, it would be a very marginal El Nino event at best. Therefore GWS does not think that world weather patterns later this year will see much, if any, impact from El Nino. |
#3
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You're both right (sort of) - there are multiple different definitions
of El Nino floating around - the US uses a cutoff of +0.5 C whereas in Australia we use 0.8. Most forecast models are indicating that sea surface temperature anomalies will peak somewhere in the 0.5 to 0.8 C range around the end of the year (thereby being an El Nino on the American definition, but not on ours), although the possibility of going beyond 0.8 couldn't be ruled out. Much the same thing happened late last year, although in the end the three-month SST anomalies in late 2003 didn't quite reach 0.5 C. Whether or not an event of this type (if it happens) would have any significant consequences is another question altogether. Blair Trewin National Climate Centre Australian Bureau of Meteorology "Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message ... I thought there was a post on here a few months ago suggesting that there was unlikely to be another El-Nino for at least two years. Probably better just to dip your big toe in the water! Shaun Pudwell. "Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message ... El Nino Expected To Develop During Next 3 Mos - NOAA El Nino conditions are expected to develop during the next three months, NOAA said in its latest monthly El Nino/La Nina discussion released Thursday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that sea surface temperature anomalies have increased and expanded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past month indicating possible early stages of El Nino development. It is likely that the sea surface temperature anomalies will remain at or above +0.5 degrees Celsius through the end of 2004, which is the threshold for El Nino events, according to NOAA. The forecast models that NOAA uses for predicting El Nino events are divided nearly in half as to whether El Nino will develop over the next three to six months or if neutral conditions will prevail. GWS believes that even if the current warm anomalies are the early stages of El Nino and it persists late into this year, it would be a very marginal El Nino event at best. Therefore GWS does not think that world weather patterns later this year will see much, if any, impact from El Nino. |
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