================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

I'd just like to make a public apology to Brian Gaze of TWO for being a little
presumptious in criticizing the December forecast. The first half is not looking
too bad, even if it is a bit milder than was expected and Scotland has had some
rain. The Atlantic jet is splitting and has resulted in this rather stubborn
European high intensifying. At the time (last Weds/Thurs) all models (including
ensembles) were keen on returning to a volatile mobile westerly, indeed some
solutions were quite severe in terms of wind. They were wrong for whatever
reason. I should have known better. Having said that I would still like to see
methodology explained, otherwise the forecast can only be termed as "guesswork"
scientifically, even if the forecast is right or wrong.

Cheers,

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message


even if the forecast is right or wrong.

What is the alternative if it isn't?


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

'like to see methodology explained'

you said it yourself Will

nothing to apologise for IMO (my opinion)

Mr Gaze didn't forecast anything spectacular for Dec.
His forecast will be judged on Jan / Feb 2005

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

I'd just like to make a public apology to Brian Gaze of TWO for being a
little
presumptious in criticizing the December forecast. The first half is not
looking
too bad, even if it is a bit milder than was expected and Scotland has had
some
rain. The Atlantic jet is splitting and has resulted in this rather
stubborn
European high intensifying. At the time (last Weds/Thurs) all models
(including
ensembles) were keen on returning to a volatile mobile westerly, indeed
some
solutions were quite severe in terms of wind. They were wrong for whatever
reason. I should have known better. Having said that I would still like to
see
methodology explained, otherwise the forecast can only be termed as
"guesswork"
scientifically, even if the forecast is right or wrong.


Will, I trust your apology will be received by Brian in the good faith that
it was sent. I admire your willingness to admit error.

Victor

"Victor West" wrote in
:

Will, I trust your apology will be received by Brian in the good faith
that it was sent. I admire your willingness to admit error.

Hear hear - willingness to admit error is very rare!

Regards
Richard

Richard, when you say
"Hear hear - willingness to admit error is very rare!"

That really is a load of rubbish...isn't it?



"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
.4...
"Victor West" wrote in
:

Will, I trust your apology will be received by Brian in the good faith
that it was sent. I admire your willingness to admit error.

Hear hear - willingness to admit error is very rare!

Regards
Richard

Richard I'm sorry I shouldn't have said that.

There... I've admitted I was wrong!


"Lawrence" wrote in message
...

Richard, when you say
"Hear hear - willingness to admit error is very rare!"

That really is a load of rubbish...isn't it?



"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
.4...
"Victor West" wrote in
:

Will, I trust your apology will be received by Brian in the good faith
that it was sent. I admire your willingness to admit error.

Hear hear - willingness to admit error is very rare!

Regards
Richard

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

I'd just like to make a public apology to Brian Gaze of TWO for being a
little
presumptious in criticizing the December forecast. The first half is not
looking
too bad, even if it is a bit milder than was expected and Scotland has had
some
rain. The Atlantic jet is splitting and has resulted in this rather
stubborn
European high intensifying. At the time (last Weds/Thurs) all models
(including
ensembles) were keen on returning to a volatile mobile westerly, indeed
some
solutions were quite severe in terms of wind. They were wrong for whatever
reason. I should have known better. Having said that I would still like to
see
methodology explained, otherwise the forecast can only be termed as
"guesswork"
scientifically, even if the forecast is right or wrong.

Cheers,

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Will I must say that your appology is not necessary, and I hope I did not
offend you in the earlier thread. I just felt I had to say it at the time, a
hangover made me grumpy and I felt your comments were a little unfair at the
time resolution in question.

I agree that Mr Gaze does not seem to offer any scientific explanation to
his forecast (maybe he's saving it to sell commercially once proven), yet if
you frequent TWO often you will be familiar with another member by the name
of Tom Prescutti whom also offers a winter forecast. This year Tom actually
offered a breakdown on how he arrived at his forecast, whether he has the
necessary meteorlogical academic skills or not, he is an enthusiast and
seems to have a reasonably adept analytical mind.

I feel that although there are many meteorlogical proffesionals, due to the
infancy, chaotic complexity, and the unknown quantity of the science a lot
of guesswork is still involved, that inturn allows the "pretenders" to
occasionally out-guess the professionals.

I am also a "pretender" of the science, however I am also a proffesional in
another science, that of electronics which fortunately is far more
predictable. Given the choice of inertest however, meteorolgy will always be
my drug of choice.


Regards


Sean B

================================================== =================
" I'd just like to make a public apology to Brian Gaze of TWO for being a
little presumptious in criticizing the December forecast. "

It's called sod's law. I blame myself for warning you "pride comes before a
fall" after your excellent forecast earlier!

I do fear (relish?) a fairly ordinary late December cold snap is on the
horizon and the forecasting applause that will be asociated with it. It
would still be a statistical fluke in my book though.

Dave

"Dave.C" wrote in message
news
================================================== =================
" I'd just like to make a public apology to Brian Gaze of TWO for being a
little presumptious in criticizing the December forecast. "

It's called sod's law. I blame myself for warning you "pride comes before
a
fall" after your excellent forecast earlier!

I do fear (relish?) a fairly ordinary late December cold snap is on the
horizon and the forecasting applause that will be asociated with it. It
would still be a statistical fluke in my book though.

Late December cold snap? Ah, 26th-30th December 1995 springs to mind, now
that's what I call a cold snap, and was just right in terms of duration...
--
Rob Overfield

http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/