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Old May 21st 05, 01:24 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default British Isles Outlook - 1st to 12th June 2005

Disclaimer: The forecaster is not responsible for damages or losses
incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for
his own actions at all times.
------------------------------------------------------
On 1st June, high pressure to the south of the country develops
north-eastwards along the Channel and into the southern North-Sea.
Low pressure to the west and north-west of Ireland drifts eastwards
towards west Ireland. A secondary depression on the south side of the
low pressure moves into Ireland. Winds are light W or SW in the south
of the country, but backing S in western districts. Temperatures are
cool at first, but becoming warmer as the S winds set in. The finest
weather is in the south and south-east of the country. Bad weather
comes in from the west during the day.

On 2nd, as high pressure moves eastwards along the Channel and north
France, a slow moving depression to the north-west of Britain has a
trough SSE'wards to the Midlands. The trough moves ENE towards the east
coast and cooler north-west winds come into western districts. Bad
weather covers most of the country, but an improvement with showers
comes into western districts later.

On 3rd, low pressure lies to the north-west of Britain and high pressure
approaches the south-west of the country. The high pressure drifts ENE
into south-east England pushing disturbances ahead of it into France.
Winds are between WNW and WSW. Bad weather in the north-west of the
country and improving weather in the south. Generally warmer weather in
the east and cooler weather in the west.

On 4th, low pressure lies to the north and north-east of Scotland and
this drifts eastwards. A new area of low pressure out in the Atlantic
to the west of Scotland moves eastwards towards the north-west of
Ireland. High pressure to the south-west of the country extends
north-eastwards to cover Ireland and south Britain and the southern
North Sea. Bright weather over most of the country with normal
temperatures. Probably a little warmer than normal in the south.

On 5th, low pressure crosses Scotland from west to east and a new
depression with a small trough stretching south-westwards, moves
towards north-west Ireland and west Scotland from the Atlantic.
Pressure is still high in the south-west and south of the country. and
this extends eastwards. Bad weather in the north and north-east of
Scotland at first. Bright elsewhere, but rain comes into western
districts later. Winds generally west backing south-west and south
later.

On 6th, a small depression moves into the south-west of Britain from
Ireland. Low pressure lies to the north of the country. A thin ridge
of high pressure stretches N/S just to the west of Ireland being forced
eastwards by a depression out in the Atlantic. Warm in the east and
south-east of the country, but cooler NW winds come into the west of
Britain. Bad weather in the south of England and the north of Scotland,
otherwise mixed weather in central areas.

On 7th, the ridge of yesterday has been cut by the Atlantic depression
and now covers the south-west of England. Low pressure now lies from
NW Ireland to W and NW Scotland. The secondary depression covers SE
England. Some high pressure from the North Sea just touches NE England
and SE Scotland. Winds are mostly light and variable, but may be from
an easterly direction in the south of the country. Cool in the
north-west and warm in the south-east.

On 8th, low pressure stretches from just to the NW of Ireland, across
north Scotland to the SW of Norway. High pressure to the south of the
country extends into the south and south-east districts. There may be
small developing disturbances coming into south Ireland later. Winds
are between W and SW over Britain. Bad weather across Scotland and
north England, brighter in the south. Warm in the south, but cooler in
the north-east.

On 9th, a large low pressure has moved towards the NW of Scotland and a
small secondary has drifted into south England. High pressure out in
the Atlantic is extending towards Ireland and SW England. Winds are SW
in the north and E in the south. A cold air trough covers the country
from the north-west.Bad weather in the north and south of the country.
Improvement comes in from the west.

On 10th, low pressure to the north of Scotland has a trough southwards
to a depression near south Ireland. To the west, high pressure lies
over the Atlantic. In the east, high pressure covers the near continent
and the North Sea. Warm in the south-west and cooler in the
north-east. Bad weather in the north and west of the country. Best
weather in the east at first. An improvement expected in the
south-west later.

On 11th, a small flat ridge of high pressure moves eastwards along the
Channel covering south and south-east England. An Atlantic depression
moves towards NW Ireland and has a secondary depression near SW
England. Another depression lies to the north and north-east of
Scotland and this drifts away ENE'wards. Warm in the east and cooler
in the west. Best weather in the SE of the country at first. Bad
weather moves into western districts.

On 12th, low pressure has moved to the NW and N of Scotland and its
secondary lies near the south England coast. A new flat ridge of high
pressure moves towards SW England from the Atlantic. Warm in the SE of
England but cool in the NW and W of the country. Winds mostly NW in the
west of Britain, but S in the extreme SE of England. Bad weather in
the extreme north of the country and over south England. Best weather
comes in from the west.
------------------------------

The forecasting method has had some major changes to accommodate the
slowing down of weather patterns during periods of high pressure
blocking. The new forecasts have been on trial over the last four
weeks and will continue to be so for some time yet. The forecasts here
are a sample of the new method and serve to provide a greater measure
of confidence in its application.

Since January of this year, I've had a forecast running for the 12
months of 2005. The old method of forecasting was used. And although
the forecast is doing quite well, I feel that if I did the forecast
again, I would make some slight changes as suggested by the new method.
Especially the periods of high pressure over the continent for December
2005 need more explanation; and the small secondaries in the Channel
drawing in cold continental air have not been sufficiently explained.
It is something that will have to be done in the near future. But first
in line, the rest of the weather for June 2005.

Cheers, Keith


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