I would be the first to laugh at model forecasts beyond 5 days. But 5 of the
past 6 runs of GFS show a direct impact on the southern Florida peninsula.
The only exception was today's 12Z run, in which Isabel passes to the south
of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Even the TPC noted that today's 12Z
was pootly initialized. But the 18Z run which I just looked at is right back
into the heart of South Florida. Given the apparent consistency of this, I'm
beginning to wonder....

Mike B.