Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 22:42:39 -0500
Newsgroup: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Where's all the Hurricance Frances talk? Schneider?

I wrote:

Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


Now hear this:

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
snip
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW.
snip


The 00Z NOGAPS and EMC (the only two models out as I write) are now
shifting the projected track to the left -- both move Frances across
southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and have it over waters there
sufficient time for it to completely regain strength prior to second
landfall.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WXMAP/index.html

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

"Mike1" wrote in message
...
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 22:42:39 -0500
Newsgroup: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Where's all the Hurricance Frances talk? Schneider?

I wrote:

Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


Now hear this:

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
snip
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW.
snip


The 00Z NOGAPS and EMC (the only two models out as I write) are now
shifting the projected track to the left -- both move Frances across
southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and have it over waters there
sufficient time for it to completely regain strength prior to second
landfall.

That is a bold call man, a bold call indeed. I'm going to stick with the
path that takes Frances right up through central Florida into southern
Georgia where it will become just another blob on the radar.

Mr. Poopy Pants wrote:
"Mike1" wrote in message
...

Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 22:42:39 -0500
Newsgroup: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Where's all the Hurricance Frances talk? Schneider?

I wrote:


Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


Now hear this:

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
snip
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW.
snip


The 00Z NOGAPS and EMC (the only two models out as I write) are now
shifting the projected track to the left -- both move Frances across
southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and have it over waters there
sufficient time for it to completely regain strength prior to second
landfall.


That is a bold call man, a bold call indeed. I'm going to stick with the
path that takes Frances right up through central Florida into southern
Georgia where it will become just another blob on the radar.

I don't know how bold it is. It is consistent with
d(prog)/dt, which is sometimes a pretty good forecast
tool. And it's consistent with Mike's climatology

I'm not sure how shear-free the environment will be
over the GufMex should Frances emerge into it. I
certainly wouldn't be stunned, though, if Frances
hit, say, the Big Easy. The question is -- would it be
like Andrew (a mere shadow of its former self) or
Betsy (still just as strong).

Sure is a pretty storm from space.

Scott

Scott wrote:

I'm not sure how shear-free the environment will be
over the GufMex should Frances emerge into it.


If Frances moves into the Gulf, it'll probably be via following a track
which briefly slides right-of-projection (i.e., NW, feinting at S.Car),
then slows down, then hooks due west and picks up speed across the
pennisula. (It would then gradually recurve northwest into the northern
Gulf coast.)

If it does that, it could (following analogies) intensity explosively
upon the hook-west portion of the leg, as that implies resumption of
deep easterly flow.

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

Mike,

If your guess is correct: Did you look at this
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/
site?

If it passes over the "current loop" in the Gulf of Mexico hell
really breaks loose. But anyway, that is a very remote possibility.

Mazzel & broge / kind regards, Evert Wesker
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
http://come.to/wesker (redirect URL, no adv's), or
http://www.euronet.nl/users/e_wesker/


On Thu, 02 Sep 2004 12:52:44 -0500, Mike1
wrote:

Scott wrote:

I'm not sure how shear-free the environment will be
over the GufMex should Frances emerge into it.


If Frances moves into the Gulf, it'll probably be via following a track
which briefly slides right-of-projection (i.e., NW, feinting at S.Car),
then slows down, then hooks due west and picks up speed across the
pennisula. (It would then gradually recurve northwest into the northern
Gulf coast.)

If it does that, it could (following analogies) intensity explosively
upon the hook-west portion of the leg, as that implies resumption of
deep easterly flow.

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

"Scott" wrote in message
...
Mr. Poopy Pants wrote:
"Mike1" wrote in message
...

Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 22:42:39 -0500
Newsgroup: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Where's all the Hurricance Frances talk? Schneider?

I wrote:


Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


Now hear this:

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
snip
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW.
snip


The 00Z NOGAPS and EMC (the only two models out as I write) are now
shifting the projected track to the left -- both move Frances across
southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and have it over waters there
sufficient time for it to completely regain strength prior to second
landfall.


That is a bold call man, a bold call indeed. I'm going to stick with the
path that takes Frances right up through central Florida into southern
Georgia where it will become just another blob on the radar.

I don't know how bold it is. It is consistent with
d(prog)/dt, which is sometimes a pretty good forecast
tool. And it's consistent with Mike's climatology

I'm not sure how shear-free the environment will be
over the GufMex should Frances emerge into it. I
certainly wouldn't be stunned, though, if Frances
hit, say, the Big Easy. The question is -- would it be
like Andrew (a mere shadow of its former self) or
Betsy (still just as strong).

Sure is a pretty storm from space.

Scott

Looks like the storm hasn't changed much in the past 12 hours, sustained
winds are still at 140, they were at 145 last night. Looks like your call
was a good one, now they're saying it's heading across Florida into the
Gulf, this could be a real nightmare for a lot of people. Do you expect it
to weaken at all before it hits land?

There is a lot of filth and bottom-feeders walking around on two legs that
need to be washed away in the devastation that this hurricane is bringing
with it.
I'm going to predict (and hope for) landfall in the extremely populated
Jacksonville area, where it will do the most damage.

Cheap disaster brings a hearty twinkle to the eye! Laughing when the very
young and weak are doomed to die! When tragedy is near, we like to clap and
cheer! All those who think they're brave will find us ****ing on their
graves!

Bad Weather wrote:
There is a lot of filth and bottom-feeders walking around on two legs
that need to be washed away in the devastation that this hurricane is
bringing with it.
I'm going to predict (and hope for) landfall in the extremely
populated Jacksonville area, where it will do the most damage.

Cheap disaster brings a hearty twinkle to the eye! Laughing when the
very young and weak are doomed to die! When tragedy is near, we like
to clap and cheer! All those who think they're brave will find us
****ing on their graves!

Furthering your thinking, perhaps we can hope that one of those filthy
bottom-feeders will have the opportunity to atone for past
transgressions when it crosses your path in a dark alley...

"Bad Weather" wrote in message ...
There is a lot of filth and bottom-feeders walking around on two legs that
need to be washed away in the devastation that this hurricane is bringing
with it.
I'm going to predict (and hope for) landfall in the extremely populated
Jacksonville area, where it will do the most damage.

Cheap disaster brings a hearty twinkle to the eye! Laughing when the very
young and weak are doomed to die! When tragedy is near, we like to clap and
cheer! All those who think they're brave will find us ****ing on their
graves!

You were wrong and I'm glad.