Sibal's good Monsoon, Bhagwan bharose

By Surajit Dasgupta, in Indraprasth
The Pioneer
Monday, April 25, 2005

It must have surprised many that the very Science and
Technology Minister Kapil Sibal, who had remarked two
months ago, the Indian Meteorological Department lacks
credibility, announced on 18 April, a grand monsoon this
year as has been forecast by the same weather agency.
Curiously, he admitted that all the data required for a
foolproof prediction were not ready.

Realising the folly, on 21st April, and 18th April 98 per
cent probability of 88cm rainfall was scaled down to 75
per cent. Then, a preliminary analysis of one of IMD's
dynamical models by The Pioneer shows that there is only
50 per cent chance for good monsoon for a large stretch
spanning southern Karnataka and northern Tamil Nadu.

Karnataka has not received adequate rainfall in the last
couple of years. Overlooking some fine prints, however,
the media had on 19th April credulously lapped up the
story with page one coverage.

Dewamatrikatam, a Sanskrit word for agricultural land
that depends entirely on rainfall for irrigation, the
word crudely translated into Hindi means Bhagwan bharose.
And good 58 years after Independence, India still has
arid lands located far away from river catchments
(nadimatrikatam). For the poor cultivators in such
places, rain-god is the only option.

The south-west monsoon, which accounts for nearly 80 per
cent of the total annual rainfall of the county, is
crucial not only to agriculture but also to several other
sectors, like, hydel power, navigation and water sports.

Last year, IMD had predicted normal rainfall. But in most
parts of India, July remained almost dry due to a
phenomenon called El Nino that developed then. This year
the calculations are no better. The IMD has not taken
into account the fact that La Nina, which usually results
in excess rainfall, may not emerge. According to global
forecast models, neutral conditions (meaning weather
conditions of one area on the globe not affecting any
other) may stay in April, May and June. June may see some
rainfall.

But in July, August and September, there are chances of
El Nino conditions emerging to spoil the monsoon.

But on being questioned, the IMD officials refuse to
agree that their apparatus are obsolete or defunct, their
technology archaic, and their education in weather
science incomplete. This time, the IMD is collaborating
with some countries whose forecast-mechanisms are more
credible. The US National Centre for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) is one of the collaborators.

Pune's Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
Bangalore's IIS and the Ahmedabad-based Space Application
Centre may bring the forecasts closer to reality, one
hopes.

Meanwhile, The Pioneer has acquired papers of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on
El Nino. The NOAA is the body that supplies weather data
to the US Government. The Indian agriculturists should
now on, expect a combination of the following to recur in
cycles of 3 to 5 years: El Nino is a disruption of the
ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having
important consequences for weather around the globe.

Increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and
in Peru this year may cause destructive flooding there,
and drought in the West Pacific and India, with
devastating bush fires in Australia. La Nina is defined
as cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the
central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that impact
global weather patterns. Reasons:

Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean impact the
atmosphere and climate patterns around the globe. In
turn, changes in the atmosphere impact the ocean
temperatures and currents. The system oscillates between
warm (El Nino) to neutral (or cold La Nina) conditions
with an on average every 3-4 years.

In the tropics, La Nina produces the opposite climate
variations from El Nino. For instance, parts of India,
Indonesia and Australia are prone to drought during El
Nino, but are typically wetter than normal during La
Nina.

El Nino and La Nina occur on average every 3 to 5 years.
According to the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction, this century's previous La Ninas began in
1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954,
1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, and 1995, 2000. These
events typically continued into the following spring.

Since 1975, La Ninas have been only half as frequent as
El Ninos. A 2005 recurrence of El Nino is more likely.

Better predictions of the potential for extreme climate
episodes, like, floods and droughts could save India
crores of rupees in damage costs. Predicting the onset of
a warm or cold phase is critical in helping water, energy
and transportation managers, and farmers plan for, avoid
or mitigate potential losses.

Advances in improved climate predictions will also result
in significantly enhanced economic opportunities,
particularly for the national agriculture, fishing,
forestry and energy sectors, as well as social benefits.

More at:
http://www.dailypioneer.com

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