"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
ups.com...

Weatherlawyer wrote:

Storm-track projections on target:

As early as three days before Katrina pulverized the Gulf Coast, the
hurricane center warned that New Orleans was in the Category 4
hurricane's path. Storm-track projections released to the public more
than two days (56 hours) before Katrina came ashore were off by only
about 15 miles - and only because the hurricane made a slight turn to
the right before hitting land just to the east of New Orleans.

That is better than the average 48-hour error of about 160 miles and
24-hour error of about 85 miles.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9369041/

The thought just occurred to me that I would like to see the tracks of
tropical and other ocean storms overlaid on maps of the sea floors.

I have never come accros such things but I can't think why there are
none on the net. It seems to me just as simple an image to produce as
the commonplace one of depicting their tracks at sea level.

I was going throught the original thread this post is from when the
above thought occurred to me. Is there anything like that out there?
Anyone know?

This is what crossed my mind:
Storm-track projections released more before Katrina came ashore
were off by only about 15 miles...

...and only because the hurricane made a slight turn to the right...

East of New Orleans is a large body of water. Did the hurricane steer
towards that? If so, why?

And don't just quote contemporary theory.



While awaiting Katrina to hit S Florida, the eye came over where
I live, the same thought occurred to me. It was heading west and was
supposed to turn a bit north of west as it made landfall. Then the
prediction was to weaken as it crossed the central part of Florida
and enter the gulf as a tropical storm at best.

Instead it turned a bit south as it made landfall, straight for the
heart of the Everglades. Which is a large area of shallow warm
water. So it ended up holding it's strength over the glades and
hit the southwest corner of Florida as a complete surprise
in both track and strength.

It's not the first time I've seen that happen either, Andrew
did the same thing. In fact both Andrew and Katrina, the two
most expensive US natural disasters, came over the east Florida
coast at 26' 4" and 26' 8" respectively. I live at 26' 6" ~

All that warm shallow water in the glades, and in the shallow Bermuda
triangle adjacent to it, are famous for their summer thunderstorms.
Which means to me a low pressure area more often than not.
Low pressures should attract an otherwise drifting hurricane
I would think.

It would seem to me water temp charts are better than
a sea floor map. But in watching these things closely since
moving here in 92, the water vapor loops give the best
indication of future tracks. And watching the direction of the
high altitude cirrus outflow from the eye can give a clue as to
sudden changes in direction. The NHC has a much harder
time predicting changes in strength then path though.


"A real-time global sea surface temperature (SST) analysis has
been developed.....The Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane
Center uses the SST analyses in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity in
statistical hurricane models"
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

You can get storm track data here.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

jonathan wrote:
"Weatherlawyer"

It would seem to me water temp charts are better than
a sea floor map. But in watching these things closely since
moving here in 92, the water vapor loops give the best
indication of future tracks. And watching the direction of the
high altitude cirrus outflow from the eye can give a clue as to
sudden changes in direction. The NHC has a much harder
time predicting changes in strength then path though.

"A real-time global sea surface temperature (SST) analysis has
been developed.....The Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane
Center uses the SST analyses in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity in
statistical hurricane models"
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

I was looking at consecutive lunar phase induced spells when we began
to hit these cycles last year. Coupled with what I had read about sea
surface temperature anomalies and their relationship to the so called
El Nino effect I thought I'd have a stab at predicting an oscillation.

If you would care to check the phases of the moon against records of
serious hurricane years you might come up with something interesting:
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html

Weatherlawyer wrote:

Brown, who for many became a symbol of government failures in the
natural disaster that claimed the lives of more than 1,000 people,
rejected accusations that he was too inexperienced for the job.

``I've overseen over 150 presidentially declared disasters. I know what
I'm doing, and I think I do a pretty darn good job of it,'' Brown said.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlates...305703,00.html

What 150 presidentially declared disasters?

Does he mean this sort of thing:

By Aaron C. Davis / Mercury News

NEW ORLEANS - Across the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast, thousands upon
thousands of blue tarps are being nailed to wind-damaged roofs, a
visible sign of government assistance.

The blue sheeting -- a godsend to residents whose homes are threatened
by rain -- is rapidly becoming the largest roofing project in the
nation's history.

But it isn't coming cheap.

Knight Ridder has found that a lack of oversight, generous contracting
deals and poor planning mean that government agencies are paying as
much as 10 times what the temporary fix would normally cost. The
government is paying contractors an average of $2,480 for less than two
hours of work to cover each damaged roof -- even though it's also
giving them endless supplies of blue sheeting for free.

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Weatherlawyer wrote:

Brown, who for many became a symbol of government failures in the
natural disaster that claimed the lives of more than 1,000 people,
rejected accusations that he was too inexperienced for the job.

``I've overseen over 150 presidentially declared disasters. I know what
I'm doing, and I think I do a pretty darn good job of it,'' Brown said.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlates...305703,00.html

What 150 presidentially declared disasters?

Does he mean this sort of thing:

By Aaron C. Davis / Mercury News

NEW ORLEANS - Across the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast, thousands upon
thousands of blue tarps are being nailed to wind-damaged roofs, a
visible sign of government assistance.

The blue sheeting -- a godsend to residents whose homes are threatened
by rain -- is rapidly becoming the largest roofing project in the
nation's history.

But it isn't coming cheap.

Knight Ridder has found that a lack of oversight, generous contracting
deals and poor planning mean that government agencies are paying as
much as 10 times what the temporary fix would normally cost. The
government is paying contractors an average of $2,480 for less than two
hours of work to cover each damaged roof -- even though it's also
giving them endless supplies of blue sheeting for free.

With all the disasters, all the incompetence and all the corruption the
USA still has heart enugh to give generously to other parts of the
earth when yet more disaster strikes. All this whilst fighting two wars
and helping Israel maintain a series of costly concentration camps for
Palastinans.

Well done!

I had wondered what would happen if disaster struck a place like
Pakistan and the USA ws seized up due to internal disorganisation.

Then it happened.

You people have got a lot of heart

(but not a lot of brain.)

The moon told me a lot of bad czjd was coming down. I wonder why God
never told GW:
http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/index.php?id=4467

Still his heart is in the right place. What, I wonder, would it take to
send his body to join it?

You feed a President bananas you get slip ups and a lot of yellow pooie
skidmarks:

Auditors had warned months before Hurricane Katrina that FEMA's
internal procedures for handling people and equipment dispatched to
disasters were lacking. In an unsettling parallel, government auditors
have been saying that Homeland Security has failed to live up to its
cybersecurity responsibilities and may be "unprepared" for emergencies.

http://news.com.com/U.S.+cybersecuri...?tag=nefd.lede

How far from New Oreleans is Maine BTW?

Bob Harrington wrote:

A classic example of the kookloon left once again having to manufacture
evidence to support their insane fear of Bush. But keep it up - having
lost everything else, they need something to keep 'em off the streets...

I notice you have abstained from defending the monkey since you have
had your face rubbed in the czjd.

How has the weather been in your neck of the woods since the Pakistani
quake series?

We've had a bit of a sea change here, with some tornadic activity and
localised flash flooding.

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Bob Harrington wrote:

A classic example of the kookloon left once again having to
manufacture evidence to support their insane fear of Bush. But keep
it up - having lost everything else, they need something to keep 'em
off the streets...

I notice you have abstained from defending the monkey since you have
had your face rubbed in the czjd.

And you are digging back through the archives a month just to throw more
czjd because...?

How has the weather been in your neck of the woods since the Pakistani
quake series?

Mostly cool and damp. It was mostly cool and damp before the quakes
too, with a couple fine sunny days thrown in for punctuation.

We've had a bit of a sea change here, with some tornadic activity and
localised flash flooding.

Just getting dark here, the sea dragon is eating the sun again. Not
worried, though - it always chucks it up on the back porch each morning.

Bob Harrington wrote:
Weatherlawyer wrote:

And you are digging back through the archives a month just to throw more
czjd because...?

Without the passing of time, one tends not to notice the absence of
persons such as yourself.

If there is another way to do it...

.... no need to tell me. This one is adequate for now.

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Bob Harrington wrote:
Weatherlawyer wrote:

And you are digging back through the archives a month just to throw
more czjd because...?

Without the passing of time, one tends not to notice the absence of
persons such as yourself.

And yet... it was ~you~ that dug back a full month to refresh the
acquaintance.

Are you lonely?

Bob Harrington wrote:
Weatherlawyer wrote:

Without the passing of time, one tends not to notice the absence of
persons such as yourself.

And yet... it was ~you~ that dug back a full month to refresh the
acquaintance.

Are you lonely?

Desperately

Are you married?

But but now let me explain. With the passing of time one tends to
notice the absence of others.

Does the translation help you understand the fluidity of human
relationships.

Whilst the Katrina disaster has shrunk in eminence, it was still a
major topic for most news broadcasts at he time of writing. Since then
of course there have been a series of weather related -or at least,
natural disasters, on the news, among each of which is a link to the
poor performance of an idiot politician. In most cases so far, this has
been the chimp.

Hurricane Bush has been an epic has it not? What do you think of the
dolt so far, since that last post of yours a month or so back?