13th Feb 04:44. This one should be a fairly windy sunny spell. So far
it is a wet spell with overnight showers and quite warm days. I would
have expected clear skies, by and large, giving cool weather and more
sun. Or at least a continuation of the anomalous High we have had since
who knows when.
(Strange that such a singularity should go out without a bang.)

21st Feb 07:17. The weather we are "enjoying" at the start of the spell
for the 13th, aught to be the weather during this one: Deep lows
sweeping in from the west and windy too. Something is tosey turvey here
but I can't see what or where.

28th Feb 00:31. I have come to the conclusion that this sort of spell
(00:00 + half an hour) is a move from a "Col" to a "Trough of low
pressure". But of course things are in some strange turmoil at the
moment so I have no clue really. I'd be looking for a trough creeping
in from a low that is one of a suite of highs and lows that aught to be
surrounding the UK.
Not this time though.

6th Mar 20:16.
20 divides by 6 to leave a 2 hour default (for want of a better word.)
The 16 minutes can be written off as a sign for the amount of wind.
It's going to be windy. But it would be in March though, wouldn't it?

At 3, the phase would ordinarily produce a wet spell (actually with a
tendency to thunder) and the spell for an hour before would produce
fine weather. So 6th Mar with its phase at 20:16, should be sunny and
windy.

But I am not feeling very confident. One thing that might be a sign of
a change back to normal from this singularity just gone, is a set of 5+
Mag quakes around the globe and a 130 kmh tropical cyclone SW of Fiji.
(80+mph not to be sniffed at.)
https://secure.fwhn.com/hurricaneall...pag.php?pid=78

The above site is forecasting this for the N Atlantic season, due to
start in a couple of months. (Not long is it.)

"There are expected to be 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major
(cat 3 or higher)."
https://secure.fwhn.com/hurricaneall...pag.php?pid=76

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...
13th Feb 04:44. This one should be a fairly windy sunny spell. So far
it is a wet spell with overnight showers and quite warm days. I would
have expected clear skies, by and large, giving cool weather and more
sun. Or at least a continuation of the anomalous High we have had since
who knows when.
(Strange that such a singularity should go out without a bang.)

21st Feb 07:17. The weather we are "enjoying" at the start of the spell
for the 13th, aught to be the weather during this one: Deep lows
sweeping in from the west and windy too. Something is tosey turvey here
but I can't see what or where.

28th Feb 00:31. I have come to the conclusion that this sort of spell
(00:00 + half an hour) is a move from a "Col" to a "Trough of low
pressure". But of course things are in some strange turmoil at the
moment so I have no clue really. I'd be looking for a trough creeping
in from a low that is one of a suite of highs and lows that aught to be
surrounding the UK.
Not this time though.

snip

Here's a weather lesson for you, something you may not encounter all that
often across the pond, a classic winter storm combined with upslope flow at
the surface, this spells disaster for areas of higher elevation 7,000+ ft.
Parts of Wyoming and Nebraska will see anywhere from 1 to 3 feet of snow
from this system, could turn into a bad one for the entire northern plains
if it can gather enough moisture.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClic....202088&rlon=-







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Dawson McDougal wrote:

Here's a weather lesson for you, something you may not encounter all that
often across the pond, a classic winter storm combined with upslope flow at
the surface, this spells disaster for areas of higher elevation 7,000+ ft.
Parts of Wyoming and Nebraska will see anywhere from 1 to 3 feet of snow
from this system, could turn into a bad one for the entire northern plains
if it can gather enough moisture.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClic....202088&rlon=-

Over here we generally have just the one form of snow. On the west
coast where the strong winds come in the temperature rises. This
invariably happens with every Low. So if this system causes snow it
falls wet and messy.

It looks good for an hour or so, maybe even a day or two but then it
becomes a major depressant. To this day we argue the toss about the
weather being "warm enough to snow."

I think the main argument comes from those on the east coast who get to
experience the occasional fall of snow if an east wind makes it out of
a Siberian High.

British and Norwegian weather very much depends on the Azores High and
its counterpart the Icelandic Low.

(When the phases are right and the code works as it should, no major
seismic disturbances building or super cells dissipating all the
energy; you can sometimes see the Azores High building -even moving to
compensate for the declination of the moon.)

In the good old days before Andrew Lane fecked up the BBC weather
centre with his banal maps of porridge, you could see the Lows bleeding
off Canada and feeding the Icelandic singularity.

Then there would be some major change in the spell and an occlusion
moves from it's stationary post along the North Atlantic Ridge and if
it hits Scotland or Norway you can count on something extra showing up
on the NEIC lists.

I dare say you might be able to follow something similar with the
Monsoon Low that moves up from Mexico and goes to the SW States.

From the Wikipedia:

North American Monsoon

The North American monsoon occurs from mid July into September and
affects Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, West Texas, and
California. It pushes as far west as the Peninsular Ranges and
Transverse Ranges of southern California but rarely reaches the coastal
strip.

The North American monsoon is associated with an area of high pressure
called the subtropical ridge that moves northward during the monsoon.
At the surface, the monsoon is associated with weak highs that form
over the four corners region and the southern Great Plains and a
thermal low that forms over Baja California. The Bermuda high also
plays some role in the monsoon.

The placement of the high and low pressure areas cause the wind to
shift from westerly to southerly. Moisture is drawn northward from the
Gulf of California into northern Mexico and the Southwest United
States. Rainfall during the monsoon occurs as thunderstorms over the
southern Rocky Mountains and adjacent areas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_monsoon

Here's a list of phases:
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/cgi-bin/aa_m...r=2006&ZZZ=END
Just change the number for the year or go he http://aa.usno.navy.mil/

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...
Dawson McDougal wrote:

Here's a weather lesson for you, something you may not encounter all that
often across the pond, a classic winter storm combined with upslope flow
at
the surface, this spells disaster for areas of higher elevation 7,000+
ft.
Parts of Wyoming and Nebraska will see anywhere from 1 to 3 feet of snow
from this system, could turn into a bad one for the entire northern
plains
if it can gather enough moisture.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClic....202088&rlon=-

Over here we generally have just the one form of snow. On the west
coast where the strong winds come in the temperature rises. This
invariably happens with every Low. So if this system causes snow it
falls wet and messy.

It looks good for an hour or so, maybe even a day or two but then it
becomes a major depressant. To this day we argue the toss about the
weather being "warm enough to snow."

I think the main argument comes from those on the east coast who get to
experience the occasional fall of snow if an east wind makes it out of
a Siberian High.

British and Norwegian weather very much depends on the Azores High and
its counterpart the Icelandic Low.

(When the phases are right and the code works as it should, no major
seismic disturbances building or super cells dissipating all the
energy; you can sometimes see the Azores High building -even moving to
compensate for the declination of the moon.)

In the good old days before Andrew Lane fecked up the BBC weather
centre with his banal maps of porridge, you could see the Lows bleeding
off Canada and feeding the Icelandic singularity.

Then there would be some major change in the spell and an occlusion
moves from it's stationary post along the North Atlantic Ridge and if
it hits Scotland or Norway you can count on something extra showing up
on the NEIC lists.

I dare say you might be able to follow something similar with the
Monsoon Low that moves up from Mexico and goes to the SW States.

From the Wikipedia:

North American Monsoon

The North American monsoon occurs from mid July into September and
affects Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, West Texas, and
California. It pushes as far west as the Peninsular Ranges and
Transverse Ranges of southern California but rarely reaches the coastal
strip.

The North American monsoon is associated with an area of high pressure
called the subtropical ridge that moves northward during the monsoon.
At the surface, the monsoon is associated with weak highs that form
over the four corners region and the southern Great Plains and a
thermal low that forms over Baja California. The Bermuda high also
plays some role in the monsoon.

The placement of the high and low pressure areas cause the wind to
shift from westerly to southerly. Moisture is drawn northward from the
Gulf of California into northern Mexico and the Southwest United
States. Rainfall during the monsoon occurs as thunderstorms over the
southern Rocky Mountains and adjacent areas.



Thanks for the link. Anyway, this is turning into a very classic, major and
predictable (if you can believe that) winter storm for the northern plains.
Anywhere from 10 to 32 inches of snow can be expected in the warning area.
The Laramie Mountains are picking up close to 3 feet of snow (due to upflow
conditions) while on the plains, anywhere from 10 to 24 inches of snow will
fall. Outside the warning area, people can expect 2 to 6 inches. This is
one of the biggest storms I've seen in a while). It's bigger than the
Northeast Storm and doesn't have the direct bennefit of the ocean to work
with.

The states you mention though are typically very dry during the summer
months, southern California can expect little or no rain during the late
summer, take a look at the averages. Nevada is obviously dry because it is
mostly desert, however, the rest of the states you mention do experience
thunderstorm activity during the summer. You've heard the song It Never
Rains in Southern California, well, that's pretty much true May-September.



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Dawson McDougal wrote:
"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...
Dawson McDougal wrote:

Here's a weather lesson for you, something you may not encounter all that
often across the pond, a classic winter storm combined with upslope flow
at the surface, this spells disaster for areas of higher elevation 7,000+ ft.

Parts of Wyoming and Nebraska will see anywhere from 1 to 3 feet of snow
from this system, could turn into a bad one for the entire northern plains
if it can gather enough moisture.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClic....202088&rlon=-

Over here we generally have just the one form of snow. On the west
coast where the strong winds come in the temperature rises. This
invariably happens with every Low. So if this system causes snow it
falls wet and messy.

British and Norwegian weather very much depends on the Azores High and
its counterpart the Icelandic Low.

This is turning into a very classic, major and predictable (if you can believe that)
winter storm for the northern plains.

Anywhere from 10 to 32 inches of snow can be expected in the warning area.

The Laramie Mountains are picking up close to 3 feet of snow (due to upflow
conditions) while on the plains, anywhere from 10 to 24 inches of snow will fall.
Outside the warning area, people can expect 2 to 6 inches. This is one of the
biggest storms I've seen in a while.) It's bigger than the Northeast Storm
and doesn't have the direct bennefit of the ocean to work with.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/New...3?img_id=17185

The states you mention though are typically very dry during the summer
months, southern California can expect little or no rain during the late
summer, take a look at the averages. Nevada is obviously dry because it is
mostly desert, however, the rest of the states you mention do experience
thunderstorm activity during the summer.

I obviously have no experience of continental weather; much less than
that for the N American continent. I did once try, on another forum
somewhere, to explain the above phenomenon in terms of the so called
Southern Oscillation.

I worked out that the El Nino and La Nina effects are no mre than
singularities that appear sometimes due to the runs of the lunar phases
as I had expected it to. Now and again a run of phases will produce
exceptional hurricanes in the North Atlantic as it did last year the N
Atlantic Oscilation.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/New...3?img_id=17180

I don't know nearly enough about astrometry to say what part of the
cycles they come from. I doubt it is that difficult to go to the next
stage of empirically forecasting them the way they forecast tides. Once
they give it a fair go.

I don't know if I will live long enough to see that though. Even
experts in all the oceanographic earth sciences are convinced that the
moon directly raises tides -so there is no hope for much from that
quarter in anybody's lifetime.

Not that the really important things in life have ever required
"theoretical" solutions.

This is a cop-out though: "Nevada is obviously dry because it is mostly
desert."
And it highlights a different way of looking at things that we have.

You talked about "a classic winter storm combined with upslope flow at
the surface".
Until recently looking at the information on the BBC weather sceen you
could see the progression of Lows and Highs from the Mid Atlantic to
Norway and France. And you would know instantly what that would mean.
The presenter only had to highlight where they thought it would affect
the most.

(Now they just stand in front of a bag of porridge waving at it. But
that's just one of the local problems with having fools in authority. I
gather things are much worse over there.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/bbcweat...st_media.shtml

If you had said a Low reaching from somewhere west or east of the
mountains of so and so I would have been better able to follow you. Not
that you were wrong, just that it's how a body gets used to
understanding something.

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...

Dawson McDougal wrote:
"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...
Dawson McDougal wrote:

Here's a weather lesson for you, something you may not encounter all
that
often across the pond, a classic winter storm combined with upslope
flow
at the surface, this spells disaster for areas of higher elevation
7,000+ ft.

Parts of Wyoming and Nebraska will see anywhere from 1 to 3 feet of
snow
from this system, could turn into a bad one for the entire northern
plains
if it can gather enough moisture.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClic....202088&rlon=-

Over here we generally have just the one form of snow. On the west
coast where the strong winds come in the temperature rises. This
invariably happens with every Low. So if this system causes snow it
falls wet and messy.

British and Norwegian weather very much depends on the Azores High and
its counterpart the Icelandic Low.

This is turning into a very classic, major and predictable (if you can
believe that)
winter storm for the northern plains.

Anywhere from 10 to 32 inches of snow can be expected in the warning
area.

The Laramie Mountains are picking up close to 3 feet of snow (due to
upflow
conditions) while on the plains, anywhere from 10 to 24 inches of snow
will fall.
Outside the warning area, people can expect 2 to 6 inches. This is one of
the
biggest storms I've seen in a while.) It's bigger than the Northeast
Storm
and doesn't have the direct bennefit of the ocean to work with.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/New...3?img_id=17185

The states you mention though are typically very dry during the summer
months, southern California can expect little or no rain during the late
summer, take a look at the averages. Nevada is obviously dry because it
is
mostly desert, however, the rest of the states you mention do experience
thunderstorm activity during the summer.

I obviously have no experience of continental weather; much less than
that for the N American continent. I did once try, on another forum
somewhere, to explain the above phenomenon in terms of the so called
Southern Oscillation.

I worked out that the El Nino and La Nina effects are no mre than
singularities that appear sometimes due to the runs of the lunar phases
as I had expected it to. Now and again a run of phases will produce
exceptional hurricanes in the North Atlantic as it did last year the N
Atlantic Oscilation.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/New...3?img_id=17180

I don't know nearly enough about astrometry to say what part of the
cycles they come from. I doubt it is that difficult to go to the next
stage of empirically forecasting them the way they forecast tides. Once
they give it a fair go.

I don't know if I will live long enough to see that though. Even
experts in all the oceanographic earth sciences are convinced that the
moon directly raises tides -so there is no hope for much from that
quarter in anybody's lifetime.

Not that the really important things in life have ever required
"theoretical" solutions.

This is a cop-out though: "Nevada is obviously dry because it is mostly
desert."
And it highlights a different way of looking at things that we have.

You talked about "a classic winter storm combined with upslope flow at
the surface".
Until recently looking at the information on the BBC weather sceen you
could see the progression of Lows and Highs from the Mid Atlantic to
Norway and France. And you would know instantly what that would mean.
The presenter only had to highlight where they thought it would affect
the most.

(Now they just stand in front of a bag of porridge waving at it. But
that's just one of the local problems with having fools in authority. I
gather things are much worse over there.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/bbcweat...st_media.shtml

If you had said a Low reaching from somewhere west or east of the
mountains of so and so I would have been better able to follow you. Not
that you were wrong, just that it's how a body gets used to
understanding something.


Well, I agree with you in the sense that my explanation of Nevada weather
during the summer was poor at best, I do apologize for that. Southern
California and the rest of the desert southwest do not experience rain at
all during the summer, except for a few exceptions. It's my understanding
the parts of Arizona do have some rain during the latter summer months. The
vast majority of precipitation during the summer months occurs in the
eastern half of the United States, parts of Florida average close to 90
inches of precip per year. Many of the areas you speak of are lucky to get
12 inches of precipitation per year, unless you are talking about the
mountains, where orographic lifting forces higher amounts of precip to fall
on the western side of a mountain.

As far as the storm is concerned, it's not all that complicated. It is
simply moving from west to east across the northern plain states, bringing
with it, a lot of moisture and dragging a lot of cold air in behind it. The
coldest air of the season will follow this storm, some areas will stay below
0 F for several days with windchill readings from -25 to -50. The higher
elevations typically see more snow. Here is a fairly good explanation from
the NWS out of central Nebraska, put some ear plugs in:


UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A LONG PERIOD OF SNOW
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS WHERE 8 TO
16 INCHES ARE LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ALONG A 100 MILE
AREA STRETCHING EAST AND WEST FROM HAY SPRING AND ELLSWORTH TO
MERRITT RESERVOIR...BROWNLEE...ELSMERE...WOOD LAKE AND POINTS TO
THE EAST. LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.


From Wyoming:


WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
THROUGH 3 PM HAS FALLEN IN A BAND FROM RAWLINS WYOMING EAST TO
AROUND SCOTTSBLUFF NEBRASKA...WITH ABOUT 8 TO 18 INCHES. EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE HAS SEEN
ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES SO FAR...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALLEST AMOUNTS WERE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

ANOTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS MOVING INTO WESTER WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE AVERAGE ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES
TONIGHT...BRINGING STORM TOTALS UP INTO THE 8 TO 20 INCH RANGE.
SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST OF WHEATLAND WYOMING WILL SEE
STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET.

WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BLOW THIS EVENING...CAUSING AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AS WELL AS VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND COLD WILL MAKE ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
DANGEROUS...WITH TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOWY ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.



From Minnesota (not as much snow but near blizzard conditions combined with
sub zero temperatures will make for dangerous conditions:


DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1200 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. CHECK THE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST JAMES...THROUGH RED WING...TO
BLOOMER WISCONSIN...WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR 6 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SNOW ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB
ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND COULD
DRIVE WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE MINUS 25 TO MINUS 35 DEGREE RANGE.










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A long term drought is wiping out herds in Kenya. Farmers are driving
their cattle onto Tsavo Wildlike Park and though risking arrest they
are desperate. Money cming in for relief is not reaching them.
Elephants among other wild herds are being driven into agrcultural
land.

In short it is a disaster. 10 years ago the ranges began to get some
control over the poaches but now all that work seems to be in danger
too. Elephants are attacking civilians. There is no water for them and
no shade. So they are taking what they need from settlements
surrounding the area.

Meanwhile as I was writing this, news came in about the Philippines,
flooding due to heavy rains has caused at least one landslide:

MSNBC News Services Updated: 11:02 a.m. ET Feb. 17, 2006

MANILA, Philippines - Hundreds of villagers were feared dead after a
rain-soaked mountainside disintegrated into a torrent of mud,
swallowing hundreds of houses and an elementary school in the eastern
Philippines on Friday. Twenty-three people were confirmed dead, and at
least 1,500 were missing.

"So many died. Our village is gone, everything was buried in mud. All
the people are gone," survivor Eugene Pilo told GMA television
Friday, hours after the landslide engulfed Guinsaugon village on Leyte
island, 420 miles southeast of Manila.

Southern Leyte province Gov. Rosette Lerias added that "there are no
signs of life, no rooftops, no nothing."

Pilo, who fears he lost his wife and children, was at his brother's
house when they felt the ground shake just before 10 a.m.
"Then the landslides struck," he recalled. "I ran out in the
street, but I fell to the ground, along with my brother. There were big
boulders - bigger than a house - and logs which rushed down."

The farming village was virtually wiped out, with only a few jumbles of
corrugated steel sheeting left to show that the community of some 2,500
people ever existed.

Two other villages also were affected, and about 3,000 evacuees were at
a municipal hall.
Sen. Richard Gordon, head of the Philippine Red Cross, said 1,500
people were missing.
The provincial governor asked for people to dig by hand, saying the mud
was too soft for heavy equipment.

The U.S. embassy said a Navy vessel, in the Philippines for annual
military exercises, would help with the rescue efforts.

Congressman Roger Mercado said residents had been advised to leave the
village after weeks of heavy rain but he laid some of the blame on
mining and logging in the area three decades ago.
"They would not evacuate," he said. "This is the effect of the
logging before. Every time it rains there are flashfloods."
Flash floods also were inundating the area, and the rumble of a
secondary landslide sent rescuers scurrying for safety.

A small earthquake also shook the area, but scientists said it occurred
after the landslide and likely was unrelated.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11400414/

*******

Kenya's worst drought in a decade is having a devastating effect on
national parks as humans and animals compete for increasingly scarce
natural resources. Wildlife is straying out of the parks, and cattle
and herdsmen are straying in as each tries to search wherever they can
for food and water.

In Tsavo East, half the national park's elephants have broken the
boundaries.
Three people have been killed in as many months by the animals
desperately foraging for food.
Tsavo East is one of Kenya's largest national parks, receiving more
than 150,000 visitors each year.

The parched earth and rising dust signal growing conflict between
animal and man. What little food remains is being fiercely fought over.
Three years of failed rains has stripped the park of vegetation; where
there should be wildlife, there is cattle.

Grazing cattle in national parks may be illegal in Kenya but herdsmen
who bring their cows in from outside are desperate and prepared to risk
arrest.
Elephants are now fleeing the park - the invasion of livestock combined
with harsh drought driving them away.
Those that remain try to grab what shade and water they can. Normally
there should be 10,000 elephants in the park but many are now heading
into human settlements in search of food and water.

Local people are terrified of the elephants. Some have built look-out
posts in trees. Stella Kisombe was recently widowed after her husband
was killed by an elephant a short distance from their home. She said
she was hysterical when she discovered what had happened - first she
found his hat and then her husband's mutilated body.
Whenever she sees an elephant now, Stella says she runs and hides.

Only a fifth of the park is protected by fencing, and tragic accidents
are hardly surprising. There is pressure to improve security but it is
expensive. These are harsh times for animals and man alike. The
elephant population and that of its human neighbour is growing at a
staggering rate - feeding tensions over scarce resources in a land
ravaged by drought.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4725152.stm

Weatherlawyer wrote:

13th Feb 04:44. This one should be a fairly windy sunny spell.

We had/are having a lot of rain especially at night with warm sometimes
sunny days as well as warm nights.

We are still in the middle of this spell with nothing due to change
until Tuesday. (But that is if the role reversal continues. I have to
say that I have been remarkably free from muscle spasms or joint pain
this year. I might be due for excoriation but by damn that would be a
lot more comfortable than my well deserved adulation. Not that I have
ever had any of that.)

21st Feb 07:17. The weather we are "enjoying" at the start of the spell
for the 13th, aught to be the weather during this one: Deep lows
sweeping in from the west and windy too. Something is tospey turvey here
but I can't see what or where.

Sometimes there is the seemingly prescient:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...cedf1d91d0cf9d

And sometimes there is the stark bloody obvious:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...7eedac086bf9b9
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...f9254e30cf0857

Weatherlawyer wrote:

I have been remarkably free from muscle spasms or joint pain this year.

I wonder how things are faring for others with arthitic and rheumatic
type pains. Ay of my many fans out there know anyone with such
illnesses?

Emma has gone the way of all flesh, Carina is looking to turn tricks
unremarked to times indefinite, off the ends of the earth
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Trop...wld.latest.gif and over in
PNG:

MANAM offshore New Guinea, Papua New Guinea 4.10°S, 145.06°E; summit
elev. 1,807 m; All times are local (= UTC + 10 hours)

A large eruption began at Manam on 27 February around 1733 from the
volcano's Southern Crater. Satellite imagery showed an umbrella cloud
above the volcano and a strong hot spot.

The edges of the ash cloud were ice rich and the eruption height
appeared to be about 19 km (~62,300 ft) a.s.l. based on a warm
temperature anomaly in the middle of the cloud indicating a
stratospheric intrusion.

RVO reported that the strong phase of the eruption declined on 28
February around 00:30. During the height of the activity, incandescent
lava fragments were thrown 700-800 m high; ejection heights later
decreased to 200-300 m. A large amount of ash was deposited on the E
part of the island and lava flowed down the SW valley.

By 1 March, only gas was emitted from Southern Crater.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/