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Harold Brooks · March 24th 06, 04:50 PM posted to sci.geo.meteorology,alt.talk.weather

In article . com,
says...

Harold Brooks wrote:

I see the part in the NASA release about warming Arctic winters, but I
missed the bits about record cold in the UK, tornado warnings in the US,
and tropical cyclones in Australia.

What a pity they couldn't get someone to stick with it.

I'm sure the research is continuing.

That's the problem in a nutshell. Those in the know miss an awful lot.
But since you have no way of disproving my ideas at the moment you may
as well forget it.

The burden of proof is on you.

Your original "coincidence" would have been just as interesting with
"record cold in UK", "no tornado warnings in US", and "tropical cyclones
in Australia" as the combination you mentioned. Looking at anomalies of
monthly-mean Central England Temperature and report-inflation-adjusted
US tornadoes from 1970-2004, the correlation between US tornadoes and
CET anomalies is 0.038. (Restricting it just to winter raises it to ~
0.1.) Paying attention the time that two events happen at the same time
and not paying attention all the time they don't is a bad idea.

The biggest wintertime tornado outbreak in recent years in the US (21
January 1999) was associated with warm temperatures in the UK and
flooding rain in the southwestern UK.

We have had an interesting spell and quite a lot of fireworks in it.
Whether it is just coincidence remains to be seen. One thing is for
certain you won't see it if you keep your eyes closed.

Another thing is that anecdotal evidence of a single combination of
events doesn't mean very much, especially when you look at the
combination and find that one of them is just as likely to occur as not,
when one of the events happens.

Harold
--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

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