Harold Brooks wrote:
In article , "TQ" ToweringQs AT
adelphia.net says...
"H. E. Taylor" wrote in message
...
Greetings,
When does the tornado season in the States usually begin?
curious
-het


From http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Climatology...

"What is tornado season? Tornado season usually means the peak period for
historical tornado reports in an area, when averaged over the history of
reports. There is a general northward shift in "tornado season" in the U.S.
from late winter through mid summer. The peak period for tornadoes in the
southern plains, for example, is during May into early June. On the Gulf
coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern plains and upper
Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen any time of year
if the conditions are right! If you want to know the tornado peak periods
for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado
probability graphics, which include distribution during the year."

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/hazardmap.html

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/hazgraph3.pl


The fundamental problem is in defining "start" of the season at any
location. Defining the midpoint is easy, but start is a more nebulous
concept. There aren't any artificial dates, such as the 1 June for the
hurricane season, and the areas of threat move around during the year.

Harold
--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

I feel it's best to be a litle rude to experts than for me to allow
them to get away with murder:

Consider what happened on this occasion. It isn't much but as far as I
am aware it is the only or nearest thing to a forewarning about the
BandaAtjeh business that I can find on the internet.

Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it?

"Michael Mcneil" wrote in message

news:5ffe245abec2c9ca6a42dc5fe04cf5d4.45219@mygate .mailgate.org

According to the BBC, the weather in the UK should be of the
"interesting" variety on Thursday. Some uncertainty has been
commensurate with the build up in magnitudes shown on the neic site.

Again according to the Beeb the next one to look out for is on
Sunday(ish.)

They seem to be, if a little hesitant, more accurate than not. The next
lunar phase is tomorrow (Saturday the 18th.) It is substantially the
same as the last phase, although I haven't got a longitude. (I thought
I
had more time to look. (Naughty me!))

So, a break in the weather seems to have brought disaster and this next
phase is probably going to be a similar spell which will run through to
boxing day or thereabouts. But we always have a storm around Xmass
time.

I wonder what ship is going to go aground this time.

--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1

At the time I was thinking more in terms of the annual event in the
waters around Britain at Crismas time, a ship going aground in the
soltice storms. As it happened the grounding took place off
Scandinavia. But I canfes that the storms moved to the Equinoctial O/A
rom that year.

In article .com,
says...
Harold Brooks wrote:
In article , "TQ" ToweringQs AT
adelphia.net says...
"H. E. Taylor" wrote in message
...
Greetings,
When does the tornado season in the States usually begin?
curious
-het


From http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Climatology...

"What is tornado season? Tornado season usually means the peak period for
historical tornado reports in an area, when averaged over the history of
reports. There is a general northward shift in "tornado season" in the U.S.
from late winter through mid summer. The peak period for tornadoes in the
southern plains, for example, is during May into early June. On the Gulf
coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern plains and upper
Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen any time of year
if the conditions are right! If you want to know the tornado peak periods
for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado
probability graphics, which include distribution during the year."

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/hazardmap.html

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/hazgraph3.pl


The fundamental problem is in defining "start" of the season at any
location. Defining the midpoint is easy, but start is a more nebulous
concept. There aren't any artificial dates, such as the 1 June for the
hurricane season, and the areas of threat move around during the year.

Harold
--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

I feel it's best to be a litle rude to experts than for me to allow
them to get away with murder:

Why in the world are you replying to my post to put this in?


Consider what happened on this occasion. It isn't much but as far as I
am aware it is the only or nearest thing to a forewarning about the
BandaAtjeh business that I can find on the internet.

What you quote yourself as writing below isn't remotely close to a
"forewarning" for the tsunami.


Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it?

"Michael Mcneil" wrote in message

news:5ffe245abec2c9ca6a42dc5fe04cf5d4.45219@mygate .mailgate.org

According to the BBC, the weather in the UK should be of the
"interesting" variety on Thursday. Some uncertainty has been
commensurate with the build up in magnitudes shown on the neic site.

Again according to the Beeb the next one to look out for is on
Sunday(ish.)

They seem to be, if a little hesitant, more accurate than not. The next
lunar phase is tomorrow (Saturday the 18th.) It is substantially the
same as the last phase, although I haven't got a longitude. (I thought
I
had more time to look. (Naughty me!))

So, a break in the weather seems to have brought disaster and this next
phase is probably going to be a similar spell which will run through to
boxing day or thereabouts. But we always have a storm around Xmass
time.

I wonder what ship is going to go aground this time.

--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1

At the time I was thinking more in terms of the annual event in the
waters around Britain at Crismas time, a ship going aground in the
soltice storms. As it happened the grounding took place off
Scandinavia. But I canfes that the storms moved to the Equinoctial O/A
rom that year.



--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

Harold Brooks wrote:

What you quote yourself as writing below isn't remotely close to a
"forewarning" for the tsunami.

You absolute cretin.

I was warning that there would be a disaster that spell and you saw
millions die and that's all you have to say?

Rot in hell.

*********************
Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it?

And if any jumped up paper pushers want to put me in their kill files
for MySake if not God's -or any sexual one; keep me there.

For any one meek enough and serious enough to want to know more, this
is how that disasterous spell was forecast. (Harold Brooks, kindly ****
off will you? Go and ply your trolls elsewhere.)

The original thread was posted here. Similar posts may have been made
to one or two other newsgroups around that time:
http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1

I got the times of the phases from Fred Espinak:
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html#y2004

This gave a run of the phases as:

JAN. 7 15 40 JAN. 15 4 46
JAN. 21 21 05 JAN. 29 6 03 FEB. 6 8 47 FEB. 13 13 40
FEB. 20 9 18 FEB. 28 3 24 MAR. 6 23 14 MAR. 13 21 01
MAR. 20 22 41 MAR. 28 23 48 APR. 5 11 03 APR. 12 3 46
APR. 19 13 21 APR. 27 17 32 MAY 4 20 33 MAY 11 11 04
MAY 19 4 52 MAY 27 7 57 JUNE 3 4 20 JUNE 9 20 02
JUNE 17 20 27 JUNE 25 19 08 JULY 2 11 09 JULY 9 7 34
JULY 17 11 24 JULY 25 3 37 JULY 31 18 05 AUG. 7 22 01
AUG. 16 1 24 AUG. 23 10 12 AUG. 30 2 22 SEPT. 6 15 11
SEPT. 14 14 29 SEPT. 21 15 54 SEPT. 28 13 09 OCT. 6 10 12
OCT. 14 2 48 OCT. 20 21 59 OCT. 28 3 07 NOV. 5 5 53
NOV. 12 14 27 NOV. 19 5 50 NOV. 26 20 07 DEC. 5 0 53
DEC. 12 1 29 DEC. 18 16 40 DEC. 26 15 06

The weather forecast was worked out by simply dividing the hour of the
time of the phase by three.

If it divided equally by 6 (that is: If he phase fell on 12 or 6
o'clock) that gave me dull overcast or misty weather (which we now know
equates with the cyclonic maximum for the southern part of the North
Atlantic.)

If it divided by 3 but not by 6 ( i.e. 3 or 9 o'clock) that gave me the
spell for thunder of the sort you could set your clock by in Abergele
or Stoke on Trent.

If it left a remainder of 1 hour (e.g.7 o'clock) that gave me the
spells for the cyclonic weather over western Europe.

If it divided by three to give a remainder of 2 (e.g. 5 o'clock) that
put the cyclone at home on the longitude of Iceland.

Of course only a fool would attempt to explain what caused this without
knowing more about it. And a really stupid fool of the proportions of
an Harold Brooks would attempt to poke at the system without making
even a slight attempt to understand it. (Harold; I told you to **** off
you ****! There is only more of this in store for you.)

(I told you he was a bloody big fool didn't I?)

OK, so let's take it from the middle of October:
OCT. 14 2 48 OCT. 20 21 59 OCT. 28 3 07 NOV. 5 5 53
NOV. 12 14 27 NOV. 19 5 50 NOV. 26 20 07 DEC. 5 0 53
DEC. 12 1 29 DEC. 18 16 40 DEC. 26 15 06

These phases are written month day hour minute. From the
precepts:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...fd32adde2c5e/#

The time is reduced to the nearest hour with an allowance of something
in the region of 10 to 15 minutes. So tha the 14th OCT. 02:48 = 03:00
we get:

03:00 Thundery
22:00 Cyclonic.
03:00 Thundery
06:00
14:30 I would ave been thrown by this, then. It's half way between fine
and thunder. A frontal system of rather difficult weather to get a fix
on. Lots of broken occlusions or a mainly warm but an occluded front
going to Norway. (So you see; they are still a PITA.)
06:00
20 00
00:00
01 30 This is an interesting one being a spell for intense cyclonic
weather in the UK but an half of the thudery one.
16:40
15:00 This is a thunder spell. And for January the third:
18:00

Note they almost all divide nicely by 3. In fact so many were falling
on that time I bet a synergistical system built up so that the spells
ran through the ones that would normally have been different.

And further, that one at 16:40 is a very unstable spell (as it happens,
it is the time of phase for the spell at the moment (13 April 2006
16:40 ) if you want to look.) Check out what I have said about such
types in the past.

Had I known then what I know now, I would have been shouting a lot
louder that something major was about to happen to the system.

But I was uneasy about my abilities. (Which is why I was a little more
gentle with Harold Brooks earlier on in this thread. Some-one drag away
his sorry carcass now, will you?)

(Someone else check what the Chandler Wabble was doing at the end of
2004. I bet it wound down by Novemberish and started to come right in
January.) It certainly did something momentous during that run.

Prove me wrong.

*******

"If I listened to the opinions of generals or military officers in the
field, we'd never have had the success we've had in running this war.
So, I'm not about to start listening now."
Donald H. Rumsfeld.

(According to the Wikipedia he served in the U.S. Navy from 1954 to
1957 as an aviator and flight instructor. Rumsfeld is an Eagle Scout
and recipient of the Distinguished Eagle Scout Award from the Boy
Scouts of America. After that his career appears to have nose dived
sharply.)

Weatherlawyer wrote:

I got the times of the phases from Fred Espinak:
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html#y2004

So let's have a look at the forecast for the coming hurricane season.
Bear in mind this is for the weather around the UK from which the
lesser regions can be interpreted (as is the method used for tides in
ports.)

21 APR. 03 28 Misty weather at the start of this spell forecast what
might have been an hurricane if the season had been advanced enough but
there was a major earthquake series in Russia instead.

Score one for the meat eaters.

27 APR. 19 44 = Unstable anticyclonic.

5 MAY 05 13 = Unstable anticyclonic.

13 MAY 06 51 = Cyclonic.

19 MAY 09 21 = Cyclonic with a hint of thunder.

25 MAY 05 26 = Very unstable anticyclonic.

23 JUNE 23 06 = Anticyclonic.

11 JUNE 18 03 = Dull and overcast, watch out for misty weather/drizzle.

18 JUNE 14 08 = Anticyclonic.

25 JUNE 16 05 = Cyclonic.

3 JULY 16 37 = Wasn't there one at this time in April? Watch out for a
large magnitude quake following it. Something interesting at least.

11 JULY 03 02 = Thundery.

17 JULY 19 13 = Cyclonic.

25 JULY 04 31 = Cyclonic.

2 AUG. 08 46 = Unstable cyclonic with a dash of thunder.

9 AUG. 10 54 = Anticyclonic.

16 AUG. 01 51 = Anticyclonic.

23 AUG. 19 10 = Cyclonic.

31 AUG. 22 57 = Anticyclonic.

7 SEPT. 18 42 = Unstable cyclonic.

14 SEPT. 11 15 = Unstable anticyclonic.

22 SEPT. 11 45 = Awkward bugger. Unstable unstable???

30 SEPT. 11 04 = Anticyclonic. The classic.

7 OCT. 03 13 = Unstable cyclonic/thundery.

14 OCT. 00 26 = Awkward cyclonic, misty one.

22 OCT. 05 14 = Cyclonic.

29 OCT. 21 25 = Oh I hate these.

5 NOV. 12 58 = Cyclonic classic.

12 NOV. 17 45 = Unstable misty drizzle???

20 NOV. 22 18 = Very unstable, unstable thingumy.

28 NOV. 06 29 = And again.

5 DEC. 00 25 = And again.

12 DEC. 14 32 = This one will be impossible to get right for man and
beast

20 DEC. 14 01 = Anticyclonic.

27 DEC. 14 48 = Thundery. Odd run these.

I said at the start of this year it would be a bad one for earthquakes.
There are a lot of consecutive similar spells in here. As it happens
the Magnitude scales for quakes and the Beaufort scale for winds are
somewhat interchangeable.

As far as I am concerned they are caused by the same thing. So
whichever we get, the consecutive runs breaking step will give the
largest ones.

Or you can call me a climatologist.

Weatherlawyer wrote:

I said at the start of this year it would be a bad one for earthquakes.
There are a lot of consecutive similar spells in here. As it happens
the Magnitude scales for quakes and the Beaufort scale for winds are
somewhat interchangeable.

As far as I am concerned they are caused by the same thing. So
whichever we get, the consecutive runs breaking step will give the
largest ones.

As it happens, some weather stations in Britain recorded their highest
temperatures for the 21st. Early days yet for jumping to conclusions.

But why should that stop me?

Weatherlawyer wrote:

21 APR. 03 28 Misty weather at the start of this spell forecast what
might have been an hurricane if the season had been advanced enough but
there was a major earthquake series in Russia instead.

Score one for the meat eaters.

27 APR. 19 44 = Unstable anticyclonic.

5 MAY 05 13 = Unstable anticyclonic.

I thought I'd seen two anticyclones here. Score two but not as it is
turning out. I mislaid the first one and the second woke me up.

There is something large and ominous brewing.

(Or not as the case may be.)