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alt.talk.weather (General Weather Talk) (alt.talk.weather) A general forum for discussion of the weather. |
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#1
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Bearing in mind that these two phases:28th Aug 10:35 and 4th Sept
02:33 are similar and that the following one 11th Sept 12:44 is nearly a classic wet one for the UK, it might be an idea for disaster watchers to keep on station for the next week or so. I imagine that another strong hurricane will strike the Caribbean somewhere near Eluthera, Bahamas and Florida perhaps? Not that I am much good at predicting where or even what. It could be a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or a major quake anywhere. If I were a miner I'd take an holiday though. Somewhere quite far from Jamaica. Somewhere that I wouldn't have to go by plane would be good. Time I started getting ready to meet my maker too. I have played the fool far too long. I aught to clean up my act. |
#2
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On Sep 7, 5:01 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Bearing in mind that these two phases:28th Aug 10:35 and 4th Sept 02:33 are similar and that the following one 11th Sept 12:44 is nearly a classic wet one for the UK, it might be an idea for disaster watchers to keep on station for the next week or so. I imagine that another strong hurricane will strike the Caribbean somewhere near Eluthera, Bahamas and Florida perhaps? Not that I am much good at predicting where or even what. It could be a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or a major quake anywhere. If I were a miner I'd take an holiday though. Somewhere quite far from Jamaica. Somewhere that I wouldn't have to go by plane would be good. Time I started getting ready to meet my maker too. I have played the fool far too long. I aught to clean up my act. Time to get ready for next year. I used to use a simple wheel where I could divide the lunar phases into three important divisions: 24:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 and 21:00 .... all gave similar spells. There were obvious problems with the set- up. In this list for instance, the times 03:00, 09:00, 15:00 and 21:00 are usually thunderstorm spells. The others tend towards low cloud and mists. I had worse qualms with this list: 01:00 04:00 07:00 10:00 13:00 16:00 19:00 and 22:00 The reason is that some of them tend to be phases that occur when there is a major cyclone in or near the tropics. These have an effect on British weather that has thrown me off in the past. The only way I had of working with them -a code crib, was if there was a spate of similar spells occurring just before them. That was a tell tale for hurricanes or large earthquakes. It still is. Note a recent spate of large earthquakes and the number of super- cyclones that occurred around the same dates. Which brings me to the problem of times of lunar phases that occur just on the cusp of a change in the above. (And of course the rest of the 24 hours.) I had myopically adhered to the wrong idea that it was all based on the longitude. And that this longitude was coincidentally the same one used by the rest of the world. It would have been the same weather and etc had the rest of the world adhered to the Jerusalem centralised maps of the dark ages. The 24 hour clock being the key. But the cycle wasn't so simple as I had proposed. It's even easier to comprehend. (If somewhat trickier to allocate spells to.) And all made possible by the machinations of the devil. We are still a long way from turning our swords into ploughshares and our spears into pruning hooks and killing foreigners with pruning hooks and ploughshares though. |
#3
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Here are the phases for next year:
Day Month Hour Minute 8 Jan 11 37 15 Jan 19 46 22 Jan 13 35 30 Jan 05 03 7 Feb 03 44 14 Feb 03 34 21 Feb 03 31 29 Feb 02 18 7 Mar 17 14 14 Mar 10 46 21 Mar 18 40 29 Mar 21 47 6 Apr 03 55 12 Apr 18 32 20 Apr 10 25 28 Apr 14 12 5 May 12 18 12 May 03 47 20 May 02 11 28 May 02 57 3 Jun 19 23 10 Jun 15 04 18 Jun 17 30 26 Jun 12 10 3 Jul 02 19 10 Jul 04 35 18 Jul 07 59 25 Jul 18 42 1 Aug 10 13 8 Aug 20 20 16 Aug 21 16 23 Aug 23 50 30 Aug 19 58 7 Sept 14 04 15 Sept 09 13 22 Sept 05 04 29 Sept 08 12 7 Oct 09 04 14 Oct 20 03 21 Oct 11 55 28 Oct 23 14 6 Nov 04 04 13 Nov 06 17 19 Nov 21 31 27 Nov 16 55 5 Dec 21 26 12 Dec 16 37 19 Dec 10 29 27 Dec 12 23 I converted the format from: http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclips...hases2001.html to make life a little easier for myself. |
#4
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![]() Taking the hour from the above phases presents the approximate spell type: Misty Wet Fine 00:00; 01:00; 02:00; 03:00; 04:00; 05:00; 06:00; 07:00; 08:00; 09:00; 10:00; 11:00; 12:00; 13:00; 14:00; 15:00; 16:00; 17:00; 18:00; 19:00; 20:00; 21:00; 22:00; 23:00; Your mileage will vary and in the following table I will not include the minutes of the phases, so that you can grasp the overall concept of what I am trying to do. |
#5
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On Sep 9, 3:46 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Your mileage will vary I worked out what weather they bring according to the region I was working with, the place where I lived at the time and the only region I was familiar with. Obviously the region is a lot drier than the list would lead you to expect. It never rains all the time anywhere and the weather in most of the world is mostly dry. My part of the world in those days was and is particularly drier than a lot of the places in Britain. and in the following table I will not include the minutes of the phases, so that you can grasp the overall concept of what I am trying to do. 08-Jan 11 = Fine 37 15-Jan 19 = Wet 46 22-Jan 13 = Wet 35 30-Jan 05 = Fine 03 07-Feb 03 = Misty 44 14-Feb 03 = Misty 34 21-Feb 03 = Misty 31 29-Feb 02 = Fine 18 07-Mar 17 = Fine 14 14-Mar 10 = Wet 46 21-Mar 18 = Misty 40 29-Mar 21 = Misty 47 06-Apr 03 = Misty 55 12-Apr 18 = Misty 32 20-Apr 10 = Wet 25 28-Apr 14 = Fine 12 05-May 12 = Misty 18 12-May 03 = Misty 47 20-May 02 = Fine 11 28-May 02 = Fine 57 03-Jun 19 = Wet 23 10-Jun 15 = Misty 04 18-Jun 17 = Fine 30 26-Jun 12 = Misty 10 03-Jul 02 = Fine 19 10-Jul 04 = Wet 35 18-Jul 07 = Wet 59 25-Jul 18 = Misty 42 01-Aug 10 = Wet 13 08-Aug 20 = Fine 20 16-Aug 21 = Misty 16 23-Aug 23 = Fine 50 30-Aug 19 = Wet 58 07-Sep 14 = Fine 4 15-Sep 09 = Misty 13 22-Sep 05 = Fine 04 29-Sep 08 = Fine 12 07-Oct 09 = Misty 04 14-Oct 20 = Fine 03 21-Oct 11 = Fine 55 28-Oct 23 = Fine 14 06-Nov 04 = Wet 04 13-Nov 06 = Misty 17 19-Nov 21 = Misty 31 27-Nov 16 = Wet 55 05-Dec 21 = Misty 26 12-Dec 16 = Wet 37 19-Dec 10 = Wet 29 27-Dec 12 = Misty 23 Don't waste too much time on it as it is grossly inaccurate. 28-May for instance with a time of 02:57 is obviously not "Fine". Nor would it be a "Misty" spell had I allowed for the minutes to take it over the line. 3:00 is a classic spell that connotes thundery conditions. (Of course this was for a small region in North Wales. Hardly representative of the relatively small country of Britain; much less the rest of the planet.) The rest of it just needs tickling. And I have a few months in which to do that. |
#6
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On Sep 9, 4:08 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Don't waste too much time on it as it is grossly inaccurate. 28-May for instance with a time of 02:57 is obviously not "Fine". Nor would it be a "Misty" spell had I allowed for the minutes to take it over the line. 3:00 is a classic spell that connotes thundery conditions. (Of course this was for a small region in North Wales. Hardly representative of the relatively small country of Britain; much less the rest of the planet.) The rest of it just needs tickling. And I have a few months in which to do that. But even so this little lot should prove interesting: 07-Feb 03 = Misty 44 14-Feb 03 = Misty 34 21-Feb 03 = Misty 31 29-Feb 02 = Fine 18 The phases for 07-Feb., 03:44; 14-Feb., 03:34; and 21-Feb., 03:31. are all very close to each other and thus set up a dangerous harmonic of some sort. The one on 29-Feb., 02:18 is right on the cusp of a phenomenon I am unfamiliar with and although giving an overall fine spell is one of those times I am not particularly happy with. Most likely it will hold a severe cyclone or two. In Britain, marked striations in the clouds will form very dark ominous ones stretching east to west from hill top to hill top across the horizon. In short, another thundery spell. Thus the scene should be set for one of the largest set of earthquakes of the year sometime during the end of that spell or within this one: 07-Mar., 17:14. |
#7
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On Sep 9, 3:46 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Taking the hour from the above phases presents the approximate spell type: Misty Wet Fine 00:00; 01:00; 02:00; 03:00; 04:00; 05:00; 06:00; 07:00; 08:00; 09:00; 10:00; 11:00; 12:00; 13:00; 14:00; 15:00; 16:00; 17:00; 18:00; 19:00; 20:00; 21:00; 22:00; 23:00; Anyway this simple division didn't work, so I divided the most productive spells; the ones that impinged most directly on the North Atlantic. Misty 00:00; 03:00; 06:00; 09:00; 12:00; 15:00; 18:00; and 21:00; And although they all produced thunder in the high season ( the middle of May and early August if the lunar declination hit it right) in that triangle where I lived, more notable spells could be seen for thunderclouds at: 03:00; 09:00; 15:00; and 21:00; And the other spells were more often than not of the low to misty persuasion. Yet that still left the thunder cells that came over from Europe, the so called Spanish Plume which were -more often than not, nothing to do with either division. |
#8
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On Sep 12, 4:38 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Yet that still left the thunder cells that came over from Europe, the so called Spanish Plume which were -more often than not, nothing to do with either division. I never managed to analyse the same problem with the other times in the list. Wet 01:00; 04:00; 07:00; 10:00; 13:00; 16:00; 19:00; 22:00; Becomes: Wet And? 01:00; 04:00; 07:00; 10:00; 13:00; 16:00; 19:00; 22:00; The actual time of a lunar phase that will place a Low Pressure area over the UK for most of the week to which it applies is 30 minutes past the hour. As it happens the floods in the Alps are most likely intense when the lunar phase is on the hour for One and Seven O' clock. Check out floods in Vaucluse and Lake Como. Which leaves a gaping hole in the list. (Which is already lacking at least 24 other times that need decoding.) |
#9
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On Sep 7, 5:01 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Bearing in mind that these two phases:28th Aug 10:35 and 4th Sept 02:33 are similar and that the following one 11th Sept 12:44 is nearly a classic wet one for the UK, it might be an idea for disaster watchers to keep on station for the next week or so. I imagine that another strong hurricane will strike the Caribbean somewhere near Eluthera, Bahamas and Florida perhaps? Not that I am much good at predicting where or even what. It could be a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or a major quake anywhere. If I were a miner I'd take an holiday though. Somewhere quite far from Jamaica. Somewhere that I wouldn't have to go by plane would be good. Looks like things are safe for now: "Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 110228 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS TCP/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 1030 pm edt Mon Sep 10 2007 for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico... The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Gabrielle...located about 230 miles south-southeast of Nantucket Massachusetts. A broad area of low pressure...associated with a tropical wave...is located about 1300 miles east of the Windward Islands and is accompanied by a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system continues to show some signs of organization...and it could develop into a tropical depression within a day or two as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Although cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave have diminished this evening over the extreme Caribbean Sea... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist just north of the Leeward Islands. Significant development of this system is not anticipated as it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico remain disorganized. However...some development of this system is still possible until it moves over land within the next day or so. Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. $$ forecaster Roberts/Pasch" http://www.hurricanezone.net/atlanti...-bulletins.php But we had an unusual spat of very windy weather yesterday. Unusual for Stoke that is. It is seldom breezy here never mind windy. No idea if that holds any significance. It's too rare a phenomenon. (It is associated with a change of lunar phases though.) This morning however, totally different weather is the more common mist. Nothing on the box about it that I heard but there was a mention that 'cloud at first will clear up to a sunny interval later.' Just a reminder that mists, according to the Weatherlawyer, fortell hurricanes. Perhaps not in the North Atlantic then? But I think: "Maybe." |
#10
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On Sep 11, 6:21 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Sep 7, 5:01 am, Weatherlawyer wrote: Bearing in mind that these two phases:28th Aug 10:35 and 4th Sept 02:33 are similar and that the following one 11th Sept 12:44 is nearly a classic wet one for the UK, it might be an idea for disaster watchers to keep on station for the next week or so. I imagine that another strong hurricane will strike the Caribbean somewhere near Eluthera, Bahamas and Florida perhaps? Not that I am much good at predicting where or even what. It could be a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or a major quake anywhere. If I were a miner I'd take an holiday though. Somewhere quite far from Jamaica. Somewhere that I wouldn't have to go by plane would be good. Looks like things are safe for now: "Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 110228 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS TCP/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 1030 pm edt Mon Sep 10 2007 for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico... The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Gabrielle...located about 230 miles south-southeast of Nantucket Massachusetts. A broad area of low pressure...associated with a tropical wave...is located about 1300 miles east of the Windward Islands and is accompanied by a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system continues to show some signs of organization...and it could develop into a tropical depression within a day or two as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Although cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave have diminished this evening over the extreme Caribbean Sea... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist just north of the Leeward Islands. Significant development of this system is not anticipated as it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico remain disorganized. However...some development of this system is still possible until it moves over land within the next day or so. Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. $$ forecaster Roberts/Pasch" http://www.hurricanezone.net/atlanti...ries-bulletins... But we had an unusual spat of very windy weather yesterday. Unusual for Stoke that is. It is seldom breezy here never mind windy. No idea if that holds any significance. It's too rare a phenomenon. (It is associated with a change of lunar phases though.) This morning however, totally different weather is the more common mist. Nothing on the box about it that I heard but there was a mention that 'cloud at first will clear up to a sunny interval later.' Just a reminder that mists, according to the Weatherlawyer, fortell hurricanes. Perhaps not in the North Atlantic then? But I think: "Maybe." What a miss I had with this one: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...020d85dc8133/# Can I rectify matters? Let's have a look at what else is in store, starting with December 2007: 1 Dec 12:44; This one is a low cloudy spell turning nasty. Troughs from Europe will extend to the region of the UK. Small short lived lows will appear on some days. 9 Dec 17:40; There will tend to be high pressure areas to the west of the UK. But this is winter and such things tend to affect Scandinavia and lower latitudes rather than reach the UK. 17 Dec 10:17 This is an awkward one. I have it associated with the "And?" list of times for: 4 and 10 O'clock. It's almost on the cusp on a fine spell if the distance produced by nearly ¾ of an hour; some 12 to 24 degrees east. A Scandinavian High perhaps? This is more likely to produce a "col" with perhaps fingers of ridges crossing the UK. However if a large Asiatic cyclone is produced, though there is no particular reason to believe there might, the time effect will be that of one for some 4 hours earlier, which would produce a wet spell. And if that should happen then the following spells could be very interesting. Always assuming that there is no super cyclone to throw them off too. Even so there are two consecutive wet spells next: 24 Dec 01:16 This is a fairly powerful Low over the UK or if too far north or south then extensive troughs will be a feature of this spell. 31 Dec 07:51 The Low produced by this will be well to the west of the UK. At high latitudes these tend to stall around Greenland and Iceland and can produce sunny weather in parts of the UK. And if this run should break? Or more likely in this next case, can it push over a weaker spell? First of all major earthquakes are not uncommon with the solstice. And in the UK severe storms were the norm around that time not so long ago. 8 Jan 11:37 This is a spell that will produce -or can produce, an anticyclone near the UK. Because of the time; 37 minutes past the hour it will not be central but more likely to extend a ridge out towards us from the Atlantic. It is an unstable spell. A number of spells are when the number of minutes is near 20 or 40 past. So this ia time tyo be on one's guard wherever you are. |
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