On Nov 17, 10:35 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Nov 17, 6:13 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Time to go over a few things.

So many perspectives, so little concentration. And while I am
mesmerised, it isn't that different from one in September nor the one
below it in October.

Something that was rattling my cage in the middle of September just
came back to me a couple of hours ago:

On Sep 16, 10:45 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Is a phase that occurs at or near twenty minutes past or twenty
minutes to an hour, that otherwise places a spell well within my ability
to call, such a difficulty maker?

If so, why?

If the harmonic for the phases centres it some 50 minutes from the UK
and the effect of that 50 minutes is some 100 to 200 degrees of arc,
then the anticyclone is in our shadow zone.

Is that not so?

If the time was directly related to the position of the sun and moon
as taken from a nautical almanac, the high would be just short of 15
degrees of longitude west of the UK.

But if there is a multiplication....
then the time translated to distance might be the one or two hundred degrees

....that gives us the 4 hours difference in the apparent time of the
lunar phase that we get when there are severe tropical cyclones...

That we have had recently at some one or two hundred degrees
distant....

....that gives me all that fing angst in the first place.

On Nov 17, 11:24 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

But if there is a multiplication....
then the time translated to distance might be the one or two hundred degrees

...that gives us the 4 hours difference in the apparent time of the
lunar phase that we get when there are severe tropical cyclones...

That we have had recently at some one or two hundred degrees
distant....


So here I am at 08:00 GMT sitting in the dark waiting for the day to
get going, which it might do around midday -at which time,
...... it starts to get dark.

The earthquake cell in South America is looking to cross the Andes
having come out of nowhere to strike the Pacific sea port of
Antofagasta last week.

Everybody loves the sound of a train in the distance?

With the local national forecasts answering to the various models in
use, Lee and Guba weakening and no other storms boding, I wonder what
is next.

What is creating the Low pressure incursion here where the Azores High
and the European one are both pretty strong and extensive:
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm
(Lots of mice in that nest though.)

I have always considered the lunar phase time of 10:30 to be a seismic
code red.
But I can't remember why.

Lee has been joined with a new kid on the block: 04S.
http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm

Well I said it would be interesting.

On Nov 18, 12:27 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Lee has been joined with a new kid on the block: 04S.http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm

Well I said it would be interesting.

And bugger me but this morning's rain has turned into this afternoon's
sleet. looks like all the chumps on uk.sci.weather were on the money
as usual too.

On Nov 18, 1:04 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Nov 18, 12:27 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Lee has been joined with a new kid on the block: 04S.http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm

Well I said it would be interesting.

And bugger me but this morning's rain has turned into this afternoon's
sleet.

I wish I knew how to predict snow. But in the UK we only get the
slushy type that is permanently miserable.

Meanwhile over in the Asian Pacific region, there are now four
cyclones where yesterday there were only two.

On Nov 19, 2:47 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Meanwhile over in the Asian Pacific region, there are now four
cyclones where yesterday there were only two.

2007/11/19 00:52
6.3 M. 21degrees South. 179 degrees West. Fiji Region.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_all.php

We have had at least one earthquake at 6M. or higher since the Chilean
event. This one at least should be associated with the demise of a
supercyclone to the north of it.

On Nov 19, 8:38 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Nov 19, 2:47 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Meanwhile over in the Asian Pacific region, there are now four
cyclones where yesterday there were only two.

2007/11/19 00:52
6.3 M. 21degrees South. 179 degrees West. Fiji Region.http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_all.php

We have had at least one earthquake at 6M. or higher since the Chilean
event. This one at least should be associated with the demise of a
supercyclone to the north of it.

Pearl Harbour Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.

South Indian Ocean area.

At 19:12, T. C. 04S was located near 10.3S. 76.8E, approximately 310
nautical miles SE of Diego Garcia,

Sea surface winds were estimated at 60 knots gusting to 75 knots.

http://www.hurricanezone.net/south-i...bulletins.html

Now called Bongwe:
http://www.hurricanezone.net/#04s

Not quite an hurricane.(Category One Hurricane: 64-82 knots, 74-95
mph,or 119-153 km/hr.)

So, then there were two. Well, one and an half:
http://www.hurricanezone.net/#23w

OK. Nearly one and one half.

Which doesn't explain the weather here.
Mind you, some 20 miles north west of here yesterday, the weather was
fairly bright. Coming back to Stoke though it was still dull and I was
greeted with a shower. OTOH, 20 miles NE the roads had been closed due
to snow.

Dull and cold where it should be sunny and cold. No severe storms to
explain it and the NEIC list shows a calming in Quakelands.

The time of the phase doesn't lend itself to Tornadoes or Derechos
(that could be an error on my part of course) which leaves volcanoes
and upper atmosphere lightning. Or something else I have yet to come
across.

On Nov 20, 11:57 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Meanwhile over in the Asian Pacific region, there are now four
cyclones where yesterday there were only two.

Pearl Harbour Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.

South Indian Ocean area.

At 19:12, T. C. 04S was located near 10.3S. 76.8E, approximately 310
nautical miles SE of Diego Garcia,

Sea surface winds were estimated at 60 knots gusting to 75 knots.

http://www.hurricanezone.net/south-i...sories-bulleti...

Now called Bongwe:http://www.hurricanezone.net/#04s

Not quite an hurricane.(Category One Hurricane: 64-82 knots, 74-95
mph,or 119-153 km/hr.)

So, then there were two. Well, one and an half:
http://www.hurricanezone.net/#23w

OK. Nearly one and one half.

I should have known I was speaking too soon:
6.0 M. BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_all.php

On Nov 20, 3:42 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

6.0 M. Bougainville Region, PNG
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_all.php

2007/11/20
6.M. 22.9 S. 70.5 W. offshore Antofagasta, Chile.

Nothing in the magnitude of 6 and up range yesterday but a recent 6.7
M. on 2007/11/22 at 5.843 S. 147.022 E. Eastern New Guinea Region,
PNG.

Evidently the date of the demise of one of the near typhoons some
(watch this space) degrees to the north. Meanwhile:

Pearl Harbour Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay peninsula):

Typhoon (TY) 23W (Hagibis) was located near 10.4 N. 113.1 E.,
approximately 380 nautical miles east of Ho Chi Minh City, VietNam,
and had tracked west-northwestward at 08 knots over the past 06 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 70 knots gusting to
85 knots.

Typhoon (TY) 24W (Mitag) was located near 14.6 N. 129.5 E.,
approximately 490 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines, and had
tracked westward at 13 knots over the past 06 hours. Maximum sustained
surface winds were estimated at 70 knots gusting to 85 knots.

And I continue with my "seemingly ad nauseum". "classic trait of the
net kook."

The dates and track records of this set of storms will be posted on
the MetO site in a few days. You will all be able to see for
yourselves who is the crank and who is the spark in this thread then.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ification.html

The weather here looks like building into the next spell a little
earlier than usual.

Interesting juxtapositioning as the next spell is its antitheses.
Which of course means that a severe earthquake is once more on the
cards; as will be seen no doubt by the inhabitants of the South Seas
when those typhoons turn into tropical depressions.

Before a severe earthquake the global weather models must fail again.
Otherwise it is just another cyclone. errmmm... I appreciate that lots
of people have been killed by them in the last few days but...

Maybe I aught to rephrase that. I don't know what is coming next. I do
know that several moderately severe quakes are going to that cell I
spoke of. More typhoons are likely but I can't say. A switch from one
spell to such a different one usually contains a mag 7 or higher
earthquake.

OTOH of course it may materialise as tornadic activity and/or
derechos. Look out for striations either way.

And of course watch your diet if you are prone to gout, rheumatism or
arthritis. Cut out alcohol, sugar and cereals. Potatoes are a no go
too but carrots and yams might help.